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re: Arkansas 2020 is Arkansas 2019 with a better turnover margin
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:30 pm to beaverfever
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:30 pm to beaverfever
quote:
should have
Arkansas fans use these words a lot
1
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:32 pm to TheCheshireHog
quote:
You can make stats say whatever you want to believe but the eye test tells a much different story.
Take out just the three pick 6s, nothing else, and look at the film and the numbers.
In this instance Arkansas is 0-4 despite getting 11 total turnovers in those 4 games. They have slightly worse average total offensive and defensive yardage totals compared to last year, slightly fewer penalties per game, almost identical YPP offensively and less TOP. On film, between the turnovers they still look largely inept on offense, struggling stopping teams and don’t block well. The turnovers are putting a nice bow on a similar overall product.
By nearly every objective metric, Arkansas 2020 is Arkansas 2019 with an impressive TO margin and several defensive scores.
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 10:34 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:32 pm to texag7
This thread is about advanced stats etc so it seemed applicable. A&M better hope Arkansas isn’t any better this year because they struggled mightily with the shitty 2019 version.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:33 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
Take out just the three pick 6s,
why?
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:33 pm to Porcine Human
quote:
why?
Because he said so
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:34 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
TWO teams have won a game in which they lost the turnover margin -5 or more.
One of those was Hawai'i over Arizona in 2019 with a -7 turnover margin. What was the other?
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 10:51 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:35 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:Because the offense would play the exact same game if those turnovers didn’t exist? Of course not.
Take out just the three pick 6s, nothing else, and look at the film and the numbers.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:36 pm to Porcine Human
quote:
why?
Because the claim was Arkansas does a lot better than last year, not just force turnovers. Objectively they don’t. And moreover, turnovers (and particularly defensive scores) are a notoriously fickle stat.
Arkansas consistently loses the LOS on both sides of the ball and is generally inferior to their opposition at passing the ball, running the ball and stopping the run. The macro view is a team getting by in the short term with an unsustainable long term prognosis.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:36 pm to beaverfever
We lost to those three teams by an average score of 45-17 last year but yes this team is the exact same as last year. Fantasy land in this thread.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:38 pm to beaverfever
quote:
Because the offense would play the exact same game if those turnovers didn’t exist?
Each game cane down to the final minutes, so yeah probably. It’s not like you blew them out and went into a shell. Franks was still trying to hold off OM because you couldn’t put a team away despite 11 combined turnovers/failed conversions.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:39 pm to TheCheshireHog
How does one even quantify how good a team would have played if its quarterback didn’t throw 6 interceptions? That’s the crux of this conversation. That’s a lot to filter out.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:39 pm to TheCheshireHog
It’s fun, same things State and Ole Miss fans have said. A&M is basically a similar program to them with a better PR department.
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 10:41 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:40 pm to Roger Klarvin
7 of Ole Miss’s points essentially came off special teams. Is that sustainable?
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:41 pm to Roger Klarvin
You think Odom gonna keep giving teams the same look? Some kinda special aren’t ya?
Trying to be the smartest guy in the room is not a good look
Trying to be the smartest guy in the room is not a good look
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:41 pm to Roger Klarvin
This team comes up clutch in big moments, sorry you can't see that
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:42 pm to TheCheshireHog
quote:
We lost to those three teams by an average score of 45-17 last year but yes this team is the exact same as last year. Fantasy land in this thread.
OM would have beaten you by about that margin had they managed to only turn it over say, 3 times. They left 20-30 points on the field between refusing to kick field goals and turnovers deep into Arkansas territory.
State would have beaten you something like 31-14 with just two turnovers instead of 4.
The two teams combined for 0 points on 6 specified drives inside the Arkansas 30, many of which were due to unforced errors, drops and penalties.
Both of those examples still give those opponents more average turnovers than your opposition did last year on average through 4 games.
Arkansas is avoiding what would otherwise be blowout losses because of hilariously one sided TO margins, which is the point.
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 10:44 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:44 pm to Porcine Human
tFear is real. You don’t go through all this trouble and research without being scared. A simple acknowledgement that the Hogs are much improved and will give Aggie a tough game as usual is really all that needs to be said.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:47 pm to Porcine Human
Never mind we were down 4 1st game starters and a couple more on the 2 deep. We are pulled a kid off scout team this week to play LB. this bye week is at worst time for Ags
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:48 pm to sugatowng
quote:
You think Odom gonna keep giving teams the same look?
He has so far, apart from box alignment changes against State because of their scheme. He ran largely the same base coverages though, he runs almost exclusively deep drop cover 2 and cover 3 (with a little cover 4) cloud zones and varies which positions move into which zones. It’s the same thing he’s been running since he was DC at Missouri. His philosophy is that most coaches/players are not disciplined enough to take the 5-6 yard plays over and over and will turn it over either out of frustration or a determination to be “balanced” and “stretch the field”. When teams insist on throwing down field, QBs get confused because it’s hard to read where the safeties and line backers will drop on any given play.
He’s always gotten shredded by teams who thank him for the free yards all day and don’t try and force balls down the field into heavy cloud zones.
So yeah, probably. And I expect A&M to name their total rushing yardage number if he does.
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 10:53 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:49 pm to beaverfever
quote:
A&M better hope Arkansas isn’t any better this year because they struggled mightily with the shitty 2019 version.
A&M had probably the weakest offensive lineman in the entire conference as their starting center last season.
Now that Colton Prater is no longer eligible and Ryan McCollum, who is taller, bigger, faster and better, is now the starting center, the run game has improved and the pass protection has GREATLY improved.
Tackles for loss allowed (first 4 SEC games)
2019 - 27.0
2020 - 14.0
Sacks allowed (first 4 SEC games)
2019 - 16.0
2020 - 2.0
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