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Arkansas 2020 is Arkansas 2019 with a better turnover margin
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:26 pm
Look it up, their stats through 4 SEC games are nearly identical except for TO margin. Their offense and defense are actually slightly worse in total yardage.
If they can sustain an average TO margin of +4 all year sure, they’ll win a lot of games. But there’s not much else going on here. They don’t run the ball well, don’t pass protect particularly well, have below average passing efficiency, don’t stop the run well and actually have very average passing defensive efficiency when the other QB isn’t throwing them the ball.
If they can sustain an average TO margin of +4 all year sure, they’ll win a lot of games. But there’s not much else going on here. They don’t run the ball well, don’t pass protect particularly well, have below average passing efficiency, don’t stop the run well and actually have very average passing defensive efficiency when the other QB isn’t throwing them the ball.
This post was edited on 10/19/20 at 12:03 am
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Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:28 pm to Roger Klarvin
Oof
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:28 pm to Roger Klarvin
This is probably the worst take in the history of sports. Congratulations.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:32 pm to Roger Klarvin
One thing is certainly different. We were 0-8 in the SEC last season, while we're 3-1 so far this season. I guess we improved at being the same.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:33 pm to Porcine Human
quote:
This is probably the worst take in the history of sports.
Comparing their games against OM last year vs this year is fascinating, because they’re the same game except for 5 extra OM turnovers. Arkansas could have easily lost this game by 4 scores with even slightly less anomalous turnover and 4th down stats.
Arkansas was dominated by State in every statistical category apart from turnovers, and State is BAD. But again, pick sixes and large TO margins are hard for even great teams to over come.
If we turn it over 4-5 times I’ll be worried.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:33 pm to Roger Klarvin
They'll play us tough regardless. Doesn't matter if they are shitty or average. I think they are somewhere in between shitty and average, but it doesn't matter. We will feel lucky we won after the game again this year.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:34 pm to redeye
quote:
One thing is certainly different. We were 0-8 in the SEC last season, while we're 3-1 so far this season. I guess we improved at being the same.
Because of a single stat that is, historically at least, well known to be unsustainable.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:36 pm to Roger Klarvin
Damn, crazy how turnovers are these random occurrences that aren't at all influenced by the defense
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:45 pm to Porcine Human
quote:
Damn, crazy how turnovers are these random occurrences that aren't at all influenced by the defense
It’s well documented that turnovers across large sample sizes are as much about luck as skill. Only about 55% of turnovers are considered “forced”, and fumble recoveries even when forced are largely a product of luck. Currently, Arkansas has an average TO margin of +3.5 in their two wins. That is entirely unsustainable across a full season and will average itself out.
Consider this: In the last 30 years, in the NFL and major college football combined, TWO teams have won a game in which they lost the turnover margin -5 or more. TWO. The average margin of victory for the team winning the TO battle in those games? 28.4 PPG. It’s virtually impossible to even come close to losing such a game.
Now consider that Ole Miss had the ball with minutes left and a chance to win DESPITE THAT TURNOVER MARGIN. With even a +4 margin, Arkansas probably loses that game.
That’s a sign of a bad team that does nothing else well.
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 9:47 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:47 pm to Roger Klarvin
no worries, keep underestimating this team. Makes it all the sweeter when we win.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:48 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
Arkansas was dominated by State in every statistical category
You can move the ball all over the field, but if you can't score you won't win.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:55 pm to Porcine Human
I never appreciated what 2 conference wins would do for fans of a team with 20 consecutive losses.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:57 pm to Roger Klarvin
2011 LSU had a turnover margin of like +17 for the season. Definitely covered up for a shite offense.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:59 pm to Roger Klarvin
It’s definitely going to be awkward at your house when we win.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:59 pm to Maytheporkbewithyou
quote:
You can move the ball all over the field, but if you can't score you won't win.
I agree, my point is that if you rely solely on an unpredictable stat to accomplish this you are at the mercy of that stat.
Arkansas is 0-4 if State and Ole Miss has just one less turnover each, WHICH WOULD STILL BE A COMBINED 9 TURNOVERS. Arkansas could have realistically lost two games in which the other teams turned it over a combined 9 times. That is unfathomable statistically.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 9:59 pm to Roger Klarvin
You seem mad and the game is two weeks away.
You’re on the road to a heart attack my friend.
You’re on the road to a heart attack my friend.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:02 pm to Mithridates6
quote:
2011 LSU had a turnover margin of like +17 for the season. Definitely covered up for a shite offense.
Which is incredibly impressive but comes to what, +1.4 per win or so?
Arkansas is on pace for +3.5 per win, and they ain’t 2011 LSU on defense.
It’s simply not sustainable. They needed EVERY ONE of those 7 turnovers (and 4 failed 4th down conversions) against OM. Every single one.
A good team wins that game by 30 at least.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:02 pm to Roger Klarvin
They're creating havooc on defense and not turning it over on offense. F. Frank's stats are certainly better than any time in his college career. I think you must believe in the transitive-property theorems.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:03 pm to Roger Klarvin
Our defense is extremely well prepared and is smothering receivers and jumping routes
It's not like we're getting fortunate fumbles that bounce our way
It's not like we're getting fortunate fumbles that bounce our way
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:03 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
Arkansas is 0-4 if State and Ole Miss has just one less turnover each, WHICH WOULD STILL BE A COMBINED 9 TURNOVERS. Arkansas could have realistically lost two games in which the other teams turned it over a combined 9 times. That is unfathomable statistically.
And if Florida doesn’t turn it over against aTm, the Aggies are a 2 loss team.
Your attempt at making a point is stupid.
Your program is literally paying a guy $75mil for three years of average football. Congrats.
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