re: Arkansas 2020 is Arkansas 2019 with a better turnover margin

Marshall goin in dry on your center

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It’s fun, same things State and Ole Miss fans have said. A&M is basically a similar program to them with a better PR department.

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State may not win another game, and Ole Miss is a 3-4 win team. They could both COMBINE for 5 total wins.

We’re considerably better than both, at least somewhat better than Auburn and Arkansas got boat raced by the only other team they’ve played.

The last 3 Arkansas teams, which is undoubtedly the worst 3 year span in our history, all played A&M within a touchdown. How Aggie can think any game between us is a sure W is pretty funny. But alas, Aggie being scared just shows we’re back baby.

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Your program is literally paying a guy $75mil for three years of average football. Congrats.

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Truth! These frickers act like they are going places. At their best, with Manziel and top 5 talent around him they haven't done shite in the SEC. They act like the Bert and Chad years or indicative of Arkansas football when they are still are bitches historically. Any Western titles? BCS bowls? Top 5 finishes? Nope. Granted, it has been since Petrino, but we are headed up and they are headed to where we were. They just dropped anchor with the rope around their nuts with that Jimbob contract. Sorry guys, we've been through it. It gets a lot worse though.

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You beat Vandy by 5 points.

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Maybe the real thesis is that 2019 Arkansas was better than people thought. Starkel threw 5 picks in a game they still could have won.

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This is true, Arkansas’ estimated 2019 record based on their advanced data was 4.1-7.9. They were at least two wins better than their final record based on all the numbers. They had a couple games last year with crazy skews in turnovers the other way.

I expect them to win around 4 games this year, which given they will all be conference games will indicate a return to the mean on the basis of a couple wins with insane turnover stats the other way. Their estimated W-L will probably be around 3-7 but they’ll win an extra game or two on that basis.

That’s how year to year statistical variation works based on a component of random chance present in the game. So Arkansas is still a bad team with similar numbers across the board this year, but not as bad as last year’s record shows and probably a little worse than what this years record will show.

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You beat Vandy by 5 points.

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Correct, a very anomalous game statistically.

The difference is we also convincingly beat State and bet top 5 Florida in a game we outplayed them in. Arkansas was outplayed in BOTH of their wins apart from the anomalous stat in question.

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So Arkansas is still a bad team

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I wouldn't say that.

At worst, Arkansas will beat Missouri and Tennessee. They have an outside shot at beating LSU. That puts them at 6-4 on the season.

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But let me guess, Mond still has bitch face and Jimbo the used car salesman vibe.

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Correct

But let’s be fair, Felipe Franks gives off that “my IQ may or may not be two standard deviations below the mean” vibe

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I’m not the one claiming an easy victory

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Neither are we. Has any Aggie in this thread predicted anything but a victory? Arkansas fans are predicting 3-4 score wins at a place they haven't won at in 31 yards.

If anything it will be like last week's game, where A&M is in control throughout but only wins by 7-10.