re: Can Saban go 10-2 at Bama in 2008?

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Could happen. The thing is for all the adoration the gumps lay on Saban, if he loses 2-3 games AND the AU game get ready. I can about GUARANTEE he will be on a hot seat and know that he must beat AU in '09. That will not be easy for him. Bottom line is the AU game this year is likely to be VERY important for Saban.

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If he lives up to Alabama's expectations, won't they pony up enough to keep him around, therefore preventing a move to State College?

And if he falls short of Alabama's hopes and dreams, won't he be a considerably less sexy candidate for JoePa's replacement?

I'd be surprised to see him go to Penn State. I'd almost expect him to go to a second-tier Big Ten school before Penn State.

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A 7-5 Auburn team in chaos at the end of the year

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We didn't play them at the end of the year. When we played them, they were 5-2, on a 5-game winning streak, were undefeated in SEC play, had physically dominated Tennessee a couple of weeks earlier, and were ranked #16 in the nation. After they lost to LSU, Auburn later lost to Georgia and Ole Miss.

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A down year for MSU, and Arkansas.

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Arkansas went 9-4 that year.

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Hell even Ole Miss was better than the above

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Ole Miss went 10-3 and finished in the top 15 that year. Hardly a sin to be worse than Ole Miss that year.

I agree that Saban is overrated, but I don't think it's necessary to trash the accomplishments of our 2003 team to prove that point. I'm perfectly happy to agree that he's a good to very good coach (not a great one) who had one truly great season. His other 11 (in college) ranged from mediocre to very good.

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Saban is an adequate game day coach. Many in the SEC are simply better in other categories. For example. many )whom I believe) at the LSU Operations Center say that Les Miles is a better planner than Saban. And I agree with them. I also believe Meyer and Tubby make better adjustments. And Petrino may be better as well offensively with similar talent. I personally thnk Arkansas will beat Bama because Petrino will out-coach Saban.

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I mostly agree with all this, except I'd rate him better than "adequate" as a game day coach, although not great and certainly not among the best in the SEC.

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No. LSU finished 0.16 ahead of USC in the BCS standings that year. The only change in the computers after the SECCG (which was our extra game) was that we jumped Oklahoma in one of them, which might have been the result of winning percentage but almost certainly caused by their loss, and not our extra win. Our ranking relative to USC did not change in any computer except that one, in which we were then ahead of them by two spots instead of one.

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Do any of you realize that literally everything you are saying supports my argument that winning %, no matter how little or miniscule, does count/matter?

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I know what’s next: 2004, and how a team that didn’t
Lose a game in Southeastern Conference play – or for the entire season – was
Left out of the hunt in favor of a Sooner squad that didn’t belong in the title game.

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Maybe you and I are reading this thread differently, but one of the best points in this thread was that Auburn got screwed in 1983, and not necessarily in 2004.

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Do any of you realize that literally everything you are saying supports my argument that winning %, no matter how little or miniscule, does count/matter?

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I could not care less about the argument you are having with someone about that. You posted incorrect numbers, and I corrected them. I might also have pointed out the irrelevance of using a winning percentage difference created by playing an extra game and comparing it to our BCS standings margin difference relative to USC in 2003, since that was not a factor in that difference.

Playing (and winning) one more game than USC had nothing to do with our BCS margin over them that year. That extra game did not change our ranking relative to them in any computer system. The only team it did change our ranking relative to was a team that also played (but lost) an extra game. Thus, the argument that 12-1 vs. 11-1 "put LSU into the NC game" in 2003, is wrong. We could have dropped any one of about 8 of the games on our schedule that year, and the result would have been the same.

That being said, obviously winning percentage is a factor in a team's ranking. I can't believe anyone would be stupid enough to think it was necessary to argue about that.

you guys are having a completely different discussion than what xiv and i started. I was talking about 1983 and how winning pct did not matter and should not be taken into account. I said nobody with a vote takes winning pct into account. They only look at no. of losses. When bringing computers into the mix, obviously the discussion changes. I will defer to you two on that, b/c you guys know more about the computer formulas than I do. But when comparing Auburn/Nebraska '83, winning pct should not be taken under consideration just b/c one team played one more game than the other team, therefore increasing its winning pct. They both had one loss. And to state LSU better deserved the '03 nat'l championship just b/c their winning pct was higher than USC's is absurd. They had the same number of losses, LSU just played one extra game (think about if it were the opposite situation, and USC fans were claiming their winning pct should give them the NC). There are plenty of other reasons to hang your hat on, but winning pct shouldn't be one of them

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They both had one loss.

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What's the win column there for then?

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And to state LSU better deserved the '03 nat'l championship just b/c their winning pct was higher than USC's is absurd.

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Absolutely.

To state that LSU better deserved the '03 nat'l championship in part b/c their winning pct was higher than USC's is 100% arguable. That is because winning %, along with others, is a factor.

Saban will retire at Alabama.

I think Bama's season will depend a lot on the Clemson game at the GA Dome. Even though it's non-conference and at a neutral site, a win over the ACC favorite would be huge for Saban and the Tide. That being said Clemson's RB duo should have a good game on the fast turf of the dome.

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I agree 100%. If we lose that game I think our team will quit unless he has changed the mind set of those players.

If we lose the clemson game we will be lucky to go 7-5 in my opinion.

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I think Bama gains a lot if they beat Clemson and create some momentum for themselves. If they lose, Clemson is supposed to be a better team and I do not think it will necessarily mean a bad season for Bama.

By the way, back to the '83 AU team for one moment...

Does anyone remember than name of the player that died in August during conditioning after practice that summer? I want to say it was Greg Pratt but am not sure if that is right. Pat Dye pushed his players incredibly hard his first three years (81, 82, 83) and it built the foundation for the '83 team and the ressurection of AU football. Dye said that event affected him more than any other in his life and the '83 team said it brought them together for the season they had. I am pretty sure they wore his number on some part of their uniform that year.

Edit: Looked it up. It was Greg Pratt. Heat stroke running timed 440s during conditioning.