re: Can Saban go 10-2 at Bama in 2008?

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Throw in the fact that AU had the #1 scoring defense in the country that year and a backfield that featured 3 NFL backs - Lionel James, Tommie Agee, and Bo Jackson (running the wishbone).

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Right you may be, but I believe that arguments like these actually weaken your case.

If you've got a good argument--and you do, and I agree with you--just go with winning %, opponents' winning %, and opponents' opponents' winning %. That alone states your case.

Nebraska had a slightly higher winning % than AU in 1983, but AU's opponents and opponents' opponents' winning %'s were significantly higher than those of Nebraska's opponents etc.

Just like when debating the LSU/USC controversy in 2003. LSU had a better record against a tougher schedule. Why even go further than that?

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when talking about one season's record, 11-1 is the same as 12-1.

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That is factually, numerically, incorrect.

# of wins is just as important as # of losses, hence winning percentage.

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so a 12-1 team should be handed the national championship over a 11-1 team b/c they have a higher winning pct?

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Did you read the entire post? Winning % should be the most important factor, yes, but one of a few/many.

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Nebraska had a slightly higher winning % than AU in 1983, but AU's opponents and opponents' opponents' winning %'s were significantly higher than those of Nebraska's opponents etc.

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-xiv, arguing for AU's case in 1983.

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xiv, i always enjoy your posts (especially about the hornets), but in college football, where not all teams play the same number of games, the number of losses is the factor that matters

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The fact that they play different numbers of games is exactly why winning % is used/considered. It's basic arithmetic.

12-1 > 11-1

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if LSU plays 11 games and goes 10-1, and tOSU plays 12 games and goes 11-1, this is effectively the same record in college football and neither team should be awarded/penalized. they have the same number of losses

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But they have a different number of wins.

The difference may be minor, negligible, what have you. But there is a difference, no matter how you spin it.

Here's why: If two teams play 12 games each, but one plays a game against an FCS school. If one team takes the field against FBS 12 times, and another chooses to take the field against FBS 11 times (presumably so as to take fewer risks of a loss), there's a difference in SOS there that can't be totally calculated.

Most computer systems, including mine, do not count wins vs. FCS schools. There's your difference right there.

No matter how small the difference, there is a difference. 12-1 > 11-1.

(What's better? 6-4 or 3-2? Or are they the same?)

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I see LSU roll over to Arky and UK as well.

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The difference is that Miles has lost one game in his LSU career (by 2 pts in triple OT) to a team that wasn't ranked going into the game. Tubs lost twice that many last year alone, and another one in each of the two years prior to that (or was it two in '06? Georgia?).

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Saban was unlucky to go 7-6,

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Disagree.

He was handed the Arkie game on a horrendous call by the officials and injuries to McFadden and Jones on Arkie's crucial last drive to try to run out the clock with a 4-point lead. He barely escaped against Houston, Ole Miss and Colorado, too. He was, frankly, just as lucky not to lose at least two of those games as he was unlucky to lose any game all year.

His losses were all pretty close, but in most of them, his team was outplayed and only managed to stay close because of large inequities in penalties and/or turnovers, especially the LSU game. About the only ones you could validly argue he was unlucky to lose were Mississippi State and ULM.

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Saban was unlucky to go 7-6, and 10-2 will sound about right for him soon

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Sabear has won 10 or more games 2 times in 12 College seasons. He's won 99 games & lost 48. It's not like winning 10 games is a normal or even realistic future goal for him.

was it winning pct, xiv? or was it the SECCG giving the SEC Champ a better SOS? If you take the worst team off their schedules (giving each team one less win), LSU and UF still make those NC games, right? Its not the extra win in those instances you named, it was the extra quality opponent that they played in the conference championship that pushed those teams over. If UF or LSU had been playing creampuffs the first weekend of december, those wins wouldnt have been enough to get them in.

Nuts chimes in on this ridiculous topic.....

<<Saban was unlucky to go 7-6,



Disagree.

He was handed the Arkie game on a horrendous call by the officials and injuries to McFadden and Jones on Arkie's crucial last drive to try to run out the clock with a 4-point lead. He barely escaped against Houston, Ole Miss and Colorado, too. He was, frankly, just as lucky not to lose at least two of those games as he was unlucky to lose any game all year.

His losses were all pretty close, but in most of them, his team was outplayed and only managed to stay close because of large inequities in penalties and/or turnovers, especially the LSU game. About the only ones you could validly argue he was unlucky to lose were Mississippi State and ULM.
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And then BT drops them with the truth.

To further expand on this response, Bama completely tanked after the LSU game, not because they gave up, but because they were exposed.

And while he was unlucky to lose to MSU and ULM, he had no business beating Arkansas. Saban can be counted on losing a game he has no business losing at least once a year.

Furthermore, the Indy Bowl proved to us Tiger fans yet again that Saban, even when he has more talent, simply plays not to lose.

Bama will sell out to win either the Clemson or the UGA game. When he gets smacked in Atlanta and UGA pounds them in Athens, don't be surprised if Bama is sitting with 3 losses on their record before the end of September. Even with the easy schedule, 6-6 or 7-5 looks about the best Bama can do this year. If Saban could pull a 8-4 I'd be shocked.

While Saban has lost 3 games or more 14 out of 15 years as a head coach, everyone in the bubbagump state wants to state if he could win a NC at LSU, he'll win one at Bama.

Just remember what fell our way when LSU went 13-1:

A really weak non SEC slate (thanks to Arizona being down)

A Bama team suffering on probation;
A 7-5 Auburn team in chaos at the end of the year
A Zook coached UF team (who still beat us)
A unravelling USC squad;
A down year for MSU, and Arkansas.

Hell even Ole Miss was better than the above.

His 2004 team was exposed early and often and was ripped to shreads by Richt the second time around.

That wonderful offense, headed by the wild imagination of Jimbo and Nick, stunk against Auburn, UGA and Iowa.

Hell the defense collapsed as well especially against an Iowa team Les Miles probably would have destroyed.

Nothing has changed- with Bama's talent and Saban's coaching methodology-so why think Saban will improve Bama's bottom line?


Saban is an adequate game day coach. Many in the SEC are simply better in other categories. For example. many )whom I believe) at the LSU Operations Center say that Les Miles is a better planner than Saban. And I agree with them. I also believe Meyer and Tubby make better adjustments. And Petrino may be better as well offensively with similar talent. I personally thnk Arkansas will beat Bama because Petrino will out-coach Saban.

And recruiting? Make a big deal for all its worth about that 2008 recruiting class. LSU, UGA and UF all have 100 plus players better than that class, academically qualified, and with experience, and Meyer, Miles and Richt simply have too much available talent for that to change. Miles may have the greatest class in LSU/SEC history this year. Meyer's three classes (85 players) AVERAGE
better than Saban's best class.

Four honest to God recruiting classes like 2008 are needed by Bama to even be considered a contender in the SEC.

So can Saban go 10-2? With UGA, LSU, UT, Auburn, Clemson on the schedule?

You're dreaming.

Expect Saban to bolt to Penn State soon enough.