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re: Tougher schedule to this point : AU or LSU
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:28 pm to Tigerfan29
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:28 pm to Tigerfan29
oh yeah definitely...that is going to be a hell of a game.
0
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:29 pm to Tigerfan29
quote:
I am not sure why the line is set this high.
Because the betting public hates Auburn?
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:31 pm to gnarkill1529
Line opened Sunday around 14
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:31 pm to BrerTiger
quote:
Because the betting public hates Auburn?
It certainly isn't because they love LSU.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:31 pm to Dice410
yeah i saw that...why did it jump up to 17.5? i mean i know why i just figured it wouldnt jump 3.5 points
i just figured it wouldnt jump 3.5 pointsThis post was edited on 9/18/13 at 4:33 pm
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:35 pm to gnarkill1529
Very early line moves are due to Wiseguy money. Once the smart money comes in and hits the opening lines it makes the line much more accurate. They usually stay around the same during the week barring injuries and or suspensions. They will start to move again closer to kickoff due to volume of bets and late action is usually more squares than sharps but sharps (wiseguys) do indeed hit em towards kickoff if value has shifted in their favor. Sports Betting 101 . .
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:37 pm to Dice410
yeah thats what i was thinking as well...it will be interesting to see what the line is come kickoff when bets are locked in
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:40 pm to gnarkill1529
Well it is very misleading because when the lines first come out the Vegas sportsbooks will have very low limits usually around 500-1000. Closer to kickoff they might come right back and bet Auburn HARD after pushing it up 3.5 with not much money.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:41 pm to Dice410
yeah...would you take LSU at 17.5 right now? or wait it out to see if the line shifts?
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:45 pm to Dice410
quote:
Line opened Sunday around 14
So if the line is now 17.5 that tells us Vegas actually underestimated the number of bettors who think Auburn gets mercy kneed early and often.
Personally, I wouldn't touch a 14 point line against Auburn but I am obviously in the minority.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:46 pm to BrerTiger
agreed
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:46 pm to gnarkill1529
If you like LSU and there is a good chance of bad weather then you HAVE to wait it out or pass if it doesn't come back under 17. Betting huge favorites in Prime Time games are a losing proposition in the long run. Books get most of their square action during Prime Time games due to them trying to get back to even from early on in the day. Oddsmakers shade the line accordingly and inflate the favorites because of this. I have 20 years experience in this biz. Good luck!
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:48 pm to Dice410
quote:
Very early line moves are due to Wiseguy money.
So they are trolling people to bait them into betting for Auburn?
Actually sounds somewhat plausible...
Auburn plus 17.5 has to be mighty tempting.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:48 pm to gnarkill1529
quote:I wouldn't touch it.
yeah...would you take LSU at 17.5 right now? or wait it out to see if the line shifts?
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:49 pm to Dice410
quote:
I have 20 years experience in this biz
Post more often.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:51 pm to BrerTiger
seems very plausible...all about the money...im not no expert on any of this and i dont bet on any games . would end up losing a lot of money
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:54 pm to BrerTiger
quote:Especially if its supposed to rain with Auburn having a decent running game and a QB that can run well. If it comes down to running the ball its not going to be a blow out.
Auburn plus 17.5 has to be mighty tempting.
This post was edited on 9/18/13 at 4:57 pm
Posted on 9/18/13 at 4:59 pm to Rabern57
EXACTLY! You wanna get value and also create a situational advantage when laying a bet down. An example would be to fade Alabama this week and get almost 40 points. A few reasons:
Bama coming off a very draining and emotional game with A&M.
Saban will not try and run it up on his ole pal and former Bama o.c. Jim McElwain.
Ole Miss on deck.
Bama coming off a very draining and emotional game with A&M.
Saban will not try and run it up on his ole pal and former Bama o.c. Jim McElwain.
Ole Miss on deck.
Posted on 9/18/13 at 5:01 pm to Dice410
i want to say the line on that game is at 32.5 right now
wow nevermind its 39.5
wow nevermind its 39.5
This post was edited on 9/18/13 at 5:03 pm
Posted on 9/18/13 at 5:15 pm to gnarkill1529
quote:
gnarkill1529
I appreciate your interest in the game
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