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My Melt is Real, but I Have Data

Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:26 pm
Posted by Pigimus Prime
Arkansas
Member since Feb 2012
4086 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:26 pm
I cannot take this any longer. It is simply embarrassing on all levels. I am working on more but so far I have put together the following:







Taken with other neat facts—like 0–14 when trailing at the half—this is just unacceptable.
This post was edited on 9/9/17 at 8:38 pm
Posted by Hawgnsincebirth55
Gods country
Member since Sep 2016
16053 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:32 pm to
Wow.. That's really sad
Posted by momentoftruth87
Member since Oct 2013
71469 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:40 pm to
I hate to be a dick towards other people, but he simply isn't earning his paycheck.

I'm honestly confused at Allen. Is he not interested? Issues with coaching staff? Given up on the team, especially his offense? I mean what gives? This isn't a bash at the kid, but more specifically my concern for wtf is going on with this team.

I see the data that Bert sucks, so don't get me wrong about that.
Posted by Porcine Human
Fayetteville, Arkansas
Member since Feb 2016
11220 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:42 pm to
The very last drive we had (yes, I'm a sadomasochist and stayed the entire game), he was throwing up his hands in frustration at the sideline the entire time.
Posted by russellvillehog
Member since Apr 2016
9711 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:44 pm to
He was probably pissed that his receivers gave up more than AtM vs ucla.
Posted by momentoftruth87
Member since Oct 2013
71469 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:47 pm to
Yeah saw on TV he was chewing out players for missed blocks, sloppy routes, and other shite.

I saw it last week, and saw it again. He's not motivated. This team will be a below .500 team if not fixed soon.

And like someone said above. How many 1000 yd rushers has he had? Fk power run, since he's been here he's been going more heavy pass. Wear them out, and then pass. We should be smashing it every down, and then attack when we are ready. Oh yeah look at Time of Possession too, I'm sure that's went down consistently the last few years.

Posted by Malvy
Member since Nov 2015
133 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:48 pm to
Ouch. Sad data.
Posted by Pigimus Prime
Arkansas
Member since Feb 2012
4086 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:48 pm to
What other data would be nice to see? I want to build an empirial case for his firing.
Posted by The Sultan of Swine
Member since Nov 2010
7784 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:53 pm to
Run a regression for our total wins over each of the last 20 years, for your betas include opponents combined win percentage for that season and a dummy variable for whether or not Bert was the coach that year
Posted by Pigimus Prime
Arkansas
Member since Feb 2012
4086 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:55 pm to
put the data together and I would happily run those
Posted by momentoftruth87
Member since Oct 2013
71469 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:55 pm to
Time of possession

Penalties

3rd down %

4th down %

Red Zone %

* If you want show his years here stats, and also show our previous coaches stats over the that peramiter
Posted by The Sultan of Swine
Member since Nov 2010
7784 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:56 pm to
Hey I'm just the idea guy
Posted by momentoftruth87
Member since Oct 2013
71469 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 8:57 pm to
And throw in fumbles & Int (for and against)

I'm curious about that one compared to SEC or other comparitive coaches
Posted by Pigimus Prime
Arkansas
Member since Feb 2012
4086 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:02 pm to
I will work on these, it might take a few days to get it all together.
Posted by momentoftruth87
Member since Oct 2013
71469 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:13 pm to
Take your time man. Those are a few I'm curious about.

Hopefully more will contribute to more stats
Posted by Feral
Member since Mar 2012
12419 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:22 pm to
quote:

I'm honestly confused at Allen. Is he not interested? Issues with coaching staff? Given up on the team, especially his offense? I mean what gives? This isn't a bash at the kid, but more specifically my concern for wtf is going on with this team.


Not to turn this into a bash Austin thread, but he's been terrible for several games now. Bad body language, showing up offensive linemen and receivers, appearing disinterested, holding on to the ball far too long, missed reads and sloppy footwork.

I haven't seen a quarterback regress this badly in quite some time. If he doesn't get his head right, they need to seriously start thinking about turning to Kelley.
Posted by beebefootballfan
Member since Mar 2011
19033 posts
Posted on 9/9/17 at 11:34 pm to
Tee Martin's Petrino like offense went for 635 yds in Stanford tonight. 307 rushing 315 passing.

Kelly would wreck shop in that offense next year.
Posted by Pigimus Prime
Arkansas
Member since Feb 2012
4086 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:33 pm to


tl,dr:

Regressing our win % on the average of our opponents since 1992 we see that an increase in our combined opponents' strength decreases our success. Suprisingly, Bert being the coach is not a historical predictor of this when compared to other coaches, although we do not have a ton of statistical power here. Graphing this over time, however, makes me think there is something there to tease out further. Thanks to Swine for the reccomendation of this.

Posted by russellvillehog
Member since Apr 2016
9711 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:40 pm to
That drop after 2011 is insane. We are at a level if success we had never had, and then we fall to the darkest period ever.
This post was edited on 9/10/17 at 9:41 pm
Posted by Pigimus Prime
Arkansas
Member since Feb 2012
4086 posts
Posted on 9/10/17 at 10:22 pm to
It sure is. I will add that I have imputed our average opponent win % over the past four years along with Bert's average. If we extent that out to 2020 then Bert would be a predictor of our long-term success. That's just one possible scenario, but if history is a guide we are in for Bert to be one of the most significant negative interventions in the history of the program in the SEC.
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