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re: My Melt is Real, but I Have Data
Posted on 9/10/17 at 10:29 pm to Pigimus Prime
Posted on 9/10/17 at 10:29 pm to Pigimus Prime
I'm amazed you actually did that. Really interesting results but yeah it's a pretty crude model. I wonder if taking opponents results vs Arkansas away from their total would make any difference. For example, if a team went 7-5 including a win vs Arkansas, they should really go down as 6-5.
There might be an issue of opponents winning more in a year specifically because we lost more that year.
1
Posted on 9/10/17 at 10:33 pm to Pigimus Prime
Conferences, SEC West and Saban taken into the equation.
When frick Nutt was here Bama was garbage
Factor this into your formula, data BS
When frick Nutt was here Bama was garbage
Factor this into your formula, data BS
Posted on 9/10/17 at 10:35 pm to The Sultan of Swine
Yeah that could be interesting for sure. I wish someone kept all these data in a format that were downladable and ready to reshape as needed. Just collecting it takes too much time. I need some grad assistants or something. 
Posted on 9/10/17 at 10:37 pm to ArHog
quote:
Conferences, SEC West and Saban taken into the equation.
When frick Nutt was here Bama was garbage
Factor this into your formula, data BS
I am not exactly sure what you are getting at here.
Posted on 9/10/17 at 10:42 pm to Pigimus Prime
Hatfield, Holtz coached when we were in the SWC
frick Nutt took over when Bama, Ole Piss, State and Aubbie were down.
He went 4-6 and 5-7, banners were flown he was fired, data is skewed compared the 2017 SEC West
frick Nutt took over when Bama, Ole Piss, State and Aubbie were down.
He went 4-6 and 5-7, banners were flown he was fired, data is skewed compared the 2017 SEC West
Posted on 9/10/17 at 10:47 pm to ArHog
I doubt the strength of the SEC west accounts for everything, given than we have lost to TCU, Texas Tech, Rutgers, and Toledo under Bert.
Posted on 9/10/17 at 10:54 pm to ArHog
Not all of the data include Hatfield and Holtz, those are just notable examples raised in discussions of important Arkansas coaches in the later portion of the 20th century. Otherwise all data are in the SEC (and the West), and Petrino, for example, coached against Saban. The whole point of doing this over time is to account for short-term fluctuations. If that is not good enough for you, then we can re-estimate the model controlling for Saban the interpretation of results do not change (see below) at accepted cutoffs for significance. I am no fan of CBB, but all this is saying is that it will take a few more years of .5 or less to really make him historically awful for us in the SEC. The graphs on the first page were without statistical control and only designed to show trends for comparison, one of which was with other recent coaches in the West. I argue that is more important than the historical aspects of Holtz and Hatfield anyway.
Posted on 9/10/17 at 11:03 pm to Pigimus Prime
Let's review some history
Arkansas was 6-5 in 1972, 5-5-1 in 1973, and 6-4-1 in 1974
Coach Danny Ford took a really tough situation in 1993 and never could get over the hump with back to back 4 and 7 seasons in 1996 and 97...but his hard work, and solid recruiting set the stage for a Razorback Renaissance in 1998
And now for the Nutt frick
Houston Nutt went thru successive tough seasons in 2004 and 2005 going 5 and 6 and 4 and 7 those two years....but not before telling Coach Broyles and the fan base we were gonna have a couple of lean seasons
Not happy with Bert, but a dose of reality, Petrino caught lightning in a bottle but last year went full melt mode in the last few games..
:dwi:
We are Arkansas
Arkansas was 6-5 in 1972, 5-5-1 in 1973, and 6-4-1 in 1974
Coach Danny Ford took a really tough situation in 1993 and never could get over the hump with back to back 4 and 7 seasons in 1996 and 97...but his hard work, and solid recruiting set the stage for a Razorback Renaissance in 1998
And now for the Nutt frick
Houston Nutt went thru successive tough seasons in 2004 and 2005 going 5 and 6 and 4 and 7 those two years....but not before telling Coach Broyles and the fan base we were gonna have a couple of lean seasons
Not happy with Bert, but a dose of reality, Petrino caught lightning in a bottle but last year went full melt mode in the last few games..
:dwi:
We are Arkansas
This post was edited on 9/10/17 at 11:06 pm
Posted on 9/10/17 at 11:46 pm to The Sultan of Swine
quote:
I doubt the strength of the SEC west accounts for everything, given than we have lost to TCU, Texas Tech, Rutgers, and Toledo under Bert.
Like most times, it's a combination of things. I was willing to give Bert a pass for awhile because of the cluster he walked into after the Petrino debacle. And also the realization that the SEC West is a much tougher place than when Nutt was here.
But by this point in Bert's tenure we should not be getting blown out by teams like TCU. We shouldn't have second half collapses like last year, especially to a terrible team like Missouri.
I'm usually one to err on the side of stability since constant coaching changes are even worse (IMO) than having a mediocre coach. But I think he's in over his head.
I don't think another coach will change a whole lot because our recruiting is always going to be subpar unless we have a great crop of in-state recruits. But at this point I'm ready to hand someone else the reigns and hope they prove me wrong.
Posted on 9/11/17 at 7:22 am to dbeck
quote:
But by this point in Bert's tenure we should not be getting blown out by teams like TCU. We shouldn't have second half collapses like last year, especially to a terrible team like Missouri.
That's exactly how I feel as well. A good start would have been not losing to Toledo and so on but even that is something I could live with based on what the circumstances seemed to be. But, we have been so close to pushing over the hump and never quite gotten there. I would argue that while the West has been strong with respect to Saban, once LSU dropped back off (they were at their recent high under Petrino) and Manziel was done the West was really not all that great historically---just average.
Posted on 9/11/17 at 8:04 am to dbeck
quote:
I don't think another coach will change a whole lot because our recruiting is always going to be subpar unless we have a great crop of in-state recruits. But at this point I'm ready to hand someone else the reigns and hope they prove me wrong.
The problem is the 2019 class is right around the corner and is the best instate class in quite a long time. I don't trust Bert to land them all and then it would be hard for a new coach to come in and land them all, unless it is someone that is an outstanding recruiter. At this point or next year, if we were to fire Bert, it would be hard to get a big name bc we'll be paying for Bert's buyout and the assistants buyouts. That means we'd have to hire someone somewhat unproven.
Posted on 9/11/17 at 8:40 am to Pygthagorean Theorem
To me we either resign to be subpar or medicore or figure out a way to maximize recruitung with our limitations, coach players up, and implement a system that works for our talent and abilities. I am not a Petrino fan, and think firing him was probably the right thing to do, but I do believe we were on a track not seen in the modern era with his model. I think if we could win 8–11 games—year in, year out—our fanbase would be happy. Then is just a matter of hoping we could occassionaly have things go our way and win the conference and/or more.
A 7–6 ceiling is not going to cut it as that means 5–7 (or worse) is the downswing.
A 7–6 ceiling is not going to cut it as that means 5–7 (or worse) is the downswing.
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