People find Votto unlikable? He isn't outgoing but is incredibly bright. I love hearing him talk about his approach. Anyway, I would say that he has a slightly above average chance at the HOF at this stage and that he has a great chance of aging well--but must avoid injuries that have really hurt his chances so far.

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Baloo

I like reading your posts; this is one of the times I disagree with much of what you wrote.

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But yeah, he needs to raise his profile and he's 33. How many more years do you think he has left? If he's like this for another few years, then yeah. Much better chance. But that would be a highly unusual aging pattern. Players with Votto's skill set (the old man skills of power and patience) tend to age terribly.

Votto has a game that ages well as others have said. His power will decline but his hitting skills are elite. Usually bat speed drops and K's rise at his age; Votto's strikeouts have dropped a lot in the past year particularly this season.

What doesn't get brought up enough RE: Votto: Although he is 33 (past prime seasons) with counting stats that are borderline or worse for HOF, the counting stats he has put up are really hurt by him being injured/recovering from injury in his age 28-30 seasons. He was having an all time season in 2012 until he got hurt (his OPS+ is incredible and masks that he was nowhere near the same player when he returned from injury at the end of the year). He was good in 2011 but his injury sapped his power, then he lost almost all of 2014.

He won't keep up what he has done the past 3 years but he will likely make up some of those numbers if he avoids serious injury (easier said than done).

Also, even though he needs to improve his counting stats, that will never be the Votto argument. He is well aware of advanced stats and has modeled his game on them. Those numbers will be his key argument. And while voters haven't changed that much, they have changed and you have expect that they will only change further toward advanced stats in the next 10-15 years when he is on the ballot. His case will be extremely strong here.

He reminds me a lot of Larry Walker with better on base skills and without the Coors Field advantage. Walker's counting numbers are better because of the era and Coors but Votto's advanced stats are better. And Walker's main problem was injuries. If Votto avoids those, I think he will make it in. But no slam dunk at this point.