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re: Is it ever worth it to kick a FG inside the 5 yard line?
Posted on 1/13/12 at 4:02 pm to LSUtigersarefun
Posted on 1/13/12 at 4:02 pm to LSUtigersarefun
no, its my opinion that games arent won in Q1 but can be lost. Lets say both teams get 2 possessions and you play awful giving up 2 TDs....well if you kick 2 FGs, its only 14-6...if you get nothing...it could get worse and the game gets out of hand. JMO....i would be more likely to go for those type of things second half
1
Posted on 1/13/12 at 5:19 pm to alteRegoJB
quote:
no, its my opinion
We are talking about game theory here.
There is a matrix that shows it. But I am too lazy to create it.
The answer goes would you risk a ROI 3 vs 7 of 133% for a play that has a 50% chance of success.
With these odds I would break Vegas.
So I would say that if your chances of success of over ~36 percent it is worth the gamble over the long hall. That is only for a td. Not for going for it on a 4th down
This post was edited on 1/13/12 at 5:24 pm
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