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re: Need a Good Break Down on App State, haven't seen one yet,

Posted on 8/28/17 at 3:11 pm to
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
3025 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 3:11 pm to
There's nothing magical about 30 points, it's just a number that I think represents a good minimum. Honestly, it's a game I think we should win by more than that, given the NFL talent laden roster and massive football budget. Maybe we will, or maybe Smart will call off the dawgs really early and we win by a little less. But if that's the case, the first half should still be a blowout.

I just don't think App State should stand a chance of making this a game, and it's time for Smart to win easy games the way he should. If he can't do it this weekend, my confidence continues to decline that he'll win the tough ones in the future.
This post was edited on 8/28/17 at 3:12 pm
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
21759 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 3:16 pm to
Would you then argue we will be vanilla gearing up for Notre Dame and App State will come out with everything they got, so it will be closer then expected at first? Also, 1 big mistake can be a 14 point swing (App State was 6th in the country in INTs last year), so that means a 10 point win was 1 play away from being a 24 point win....so many variables outside just pure talent alone.

Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
3025 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 3:22 pm to
Playing "vanilla" is for coaches who know what they and their team can do, IMO. Smart's not there, so he needs to forget about holding back for the future and see who can perform. Just because I said we have a huge talent advantage doesn't mean I think they've been coached up enough to make live execution a sure thing.

I'd push Eason to make throws all over the field, see which receivers can catch the football, see which OL, TE, and RB can pass protect, see which WR can block for their team mates. On defense, I'd blitz a lot on passing downs, put the corners on an island and harass the QB until he feels like Colt Brennan in the Sugar Bowl. I'd attack their option plays the way Clemson does against GT, instead of playing back on their heels.

If Kirby "plays vanilla" and this is a close game, then I'd give us a high probability of losing on the road to ND.
This post was edited on 8/28/17 at 3:33 pm
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

Would you then argue we will be vanilla

I don't entirely agree with wd as you'll see in the thread, but I would say playing vanilla is best left to teams that have already proven they've got more flavors than just vanilla that "work" on the field. Notre Dame would be a nice win to get to be sure, but if we lose that game, it does very little to impact our goals if we take care of business elsewhere. If I'm Smart, I care about making sure that the kinks are worked out early and often, so that by Miss St, you've got everything working as it should.

The other thing is something that's said often by coaches, which is this: in your pure week to week planning, there is only so much you can do to account for things that you see in the other team in the week(s) leading up to the game. You have all of spring and fall to put together your base of your team and prepare for week 1. Once week 2 comes around, the "big improvements" rarely come from how you game plan for opponent #2, and more so from cleaning up mistakes in that larger install from week 1. If we throw early and often against App State, if nothing else, it should force ND to respect the passing game and potentially open it up for earlier running yards in that matchup... if it doesn't, then you've just had a week's tune up for getting the passing game working... something we didn't see much of last year.

They did do well in INTs last season, but keep in mind that a) they lost Mondo Williams (more than 20% of their INT totals and just under 20% of their passes defended); b) Clifton Duck was their other primary Corner who performed well as a freshman last year but was the #2 guy... now he'll be the #1 corner taking on better receivers with an inexperienced guy on the other side at best... Gibbs who was out due to academics last year (had a *great* 2015) tranferred out.

Also, keep in mind that the production came with the majority of their games happening in the Sun Belt conference. I'm decidedly somewhere in the middle here. I think they have a good enough team to get the team focused, but I do think we should have a pretty decided edge.

As I said before, 30+ is probably a bit much to say anything less is failure, but high teens or more differential and meeting the eye test probably is sufficient for me to see it as a successful start to the season.
This post was edited on 8/28/17 at 3:56 pm
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
21759 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 4:37 pm to
Fib, I completely agree. I'm just making the counter-point that others could suggest. Including a pick six that would be a 14 point swing, loss in momentum, App players believing more, fans not getting into the game, players getting down, coaches getting more concservative, etc. There is a reason Vegas has us at -13.5 right now and those guys know everything about our players and coaches, etc. App State is not the cake walk they were from 2010-2014. I get they're in the Sun Belt, but that doesn't mean they can't give a talented team a run, one game, first of the season when a couple things go their way early. My prediction was 31 - 13 Dawgs, but won't be surprised by a 31 - 24 score either
Posted by thomasbrown_2007
Atlanta,Ga
Member since Oct 2014
2995 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 4:39 pm to
Can you point to one post of yours where you talked football

Jesus. You are more stupid than i thought you were...i always do. Maybe, you should see someone about that. Awww you are upset. People like my vote. Its okay. Everyone likes me including your aunt.
Posted by thomasbrown_2007
Atlanta,Ga
Member since Oct 2014
2995 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 4:42 pm to
Can you point to one post of yours where you talked football

You really showed your intelligence here
Posted by gatorhata9
Dallas, TX
Member since Dec 2010
26174 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 4:45 pm to
quote:

You really showed your intelligence here



You've been showing your "intelligence" all over the SECRant. It's fricking embarrassing.
Posted by thomasbrown_2007
Atlanta,Ga
Member since Oct 2014
2995 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 4:47 pm to
Awww you must have been someone..i owned on there. Just put cream on it and let it burn a little. Your name is an embarrassment.
Posted by thomasbrown_2007
Atlanta,Ga
Member since Oct 2014
2995 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 4:49 pm to
LINK /

But i dont talk about football..what a moron
Posted by gatorhata9
Dallas, TX
Member since Dec 2010
26174 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 4:56 pm to
quote:

Awww you must have been someone..i owned on there.


I've never engaged with you, just watched from afar, cringing.
Posted by thomasbrown_2007
Atlanta,Ga
Member since Oct 2014
2995 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 4:57 pm to
Posted by thomasbrown_2007
Atlanta,Ga
Member since Oct 2014
2995 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 5:00 pm to
So you are a stalker??....well you must be proud. To follow another man around.
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 5:01 pm to
quote:

Fib, I completely agree. I'm just making the counter-point that others could suggest. Including a pick six that would be a 14 point swing, loss in momentum, App players believing more, fans not getting into the game, players getting down, coaches getting more concservative, etc. There is a reason Vegas has us at -13.5 right now and those guys know everything about our players and coaches, etc. App State is not the cake walk they were from 2010-2014. I get they're in the Sun Belt, but that doesn't mean they can't give a talented team a run, one game, first of the season when a couple things go their way early. My prediction was 31 - 13 Dawgs, but won't be surprised by a 31 - 24 score either


Fo sho. Pick six isn't "exactly" a 14 point swing, but I get what you mean. If you saw Connelly's article that I linked to regarding App State, you'll see he has us at about a 14 point favorite based on his S&P+ metrics, which lines up pretty well with Vegas. The hope is of course that after another year, Smart has done more than just provided a "more experienced version of 2016" and instead actually has this team in the place that we all were probably hoping for last year (perhaps naively).

As to predictions, I haven't gone there yet, but I would say if we cap out at 31 points against App State, unless it's intentional, we're going to struggle this year. This offense needs to be able to consistently score 28-30+ against SEC competition, so would say we need to see upwards of 35 points to feel good... margin I'm less concerned about, but offensive production I care a lot more about in game 1, given the troubles we had there last year. Game 1 won't define the season, but it might give us an idea about what kind of offensive production potential we've got, as most of the defenses we'll face when games are likely to be tighter should be superior to App State.
Posted by thomasbrown_2007
Atlanta,Ga
Member since Oct 2014
2995 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 5:02 pm to
LINK / and another one.
Posted by Peter Buck
Member since Sep 2012
12415 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 5:11 pm to
App state doesn't recruit as well as us, but they have a solid team with some players that may well end up in the NFL. The have a very experienced QB and a RB that can break one at any point.

They are well coached too. We will have to not make a lot of mistakes. If we let them keep it close, it could mean trouble.
Posted by thomasbrown_2007
Atlanta,Ga
Member since Oct 2014
2995 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 5:16 pm to
Finally a grownup response. We shall see. Thats really why i think we will have our way..because of recruiting and that Kirby knows...he cant screw up this game. It will be interesting. Much respect Peter
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
21759 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 5:16 pm to
quote:

LINK /

But i dont talk about football..what a moron


HAHAHA...this is such a great troll job...

" I think Chubb will be back"
Posted by thomasbrown_2007
Atlanta,Ga
Member since Oct 2014
2995 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 5:20 pm to
I noticed you didnt look at the other links. And obviously that is about football. But granted you rather throw hissy tantrums..i understand. Its your nature. Good luck.
This post was edited on 8/28/17 at 5:21 pm
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
21759 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 5:38 pm to
FOOTBALL TALK?

quote:

I think chubb will be back
Of course depending on the oline



quote:

"Can someone help me -
Which one is more irrelevant Ole miss toy soldiers/miss state or the Ga tech butterflies???
2 upvote, 42 down

quote:

What is one thing you are worried about your team?

For UGA it has to be our o-line.
..and recievers
1 upvote
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