Most likely semifinal opponent when/if Georgia beats Bama

If we win we're clearly #1, and unless the unthinkable happens Michigan is solidly #2.

Obivously 3/4 depend on the outcome of the other games so it's hard to really guess what's "most likely". If we assume chalk holds (with FSU winning), I have to think your guess probably plays out assuming an oregon win. If Washington wins, I think Washingto gets the 3 and FSU the 4. Bonus points on that as it would provide the rose bowl with a pac/big10 matchup.

If Chalk holds but lousville beats FSU, I think the Pac12 winner (whichever team it is) claims the 3 and Texas takes the 4.

Ideally I'd want FSU in round 1 because it's essnetially a guaranteed auto-win and who wouldn't want that? But if that' doesn't happen, I want Texas in the sugar bowl to avenge 2018.

I could see the Oregon Washington winner taking #3 regardless since the Rose Bowl typically is for the PAC12 vs Big10.

At least that is my hope, because I want the Dawgs to wreck FSU in NOLA.

I want to play FSU because I grew up in south Georgia in the 90's and screw that fanbase.

I think Alabama is the greatest threat to another title run. If we get by them, I'm not worried about any of the other contenders.

The Big Ten has had circular reasoning used to prop up all their rankings. They are a horrendous conference outside of Michigan and OSU, but pre-season hype rankings made OSU wins over ND and Penn State look way better than they were. ND was shown to be meh and Penn State's offense would make Brian Schottenheimer blush. Michigan coasted until November, and then got to clean up "high ranked" wins over Penn State and OSU. The defenses might be good, but there's not a single offense in the Big 10 that is scary.

Oregon has been putting up video game numbers, but I just saw 8 of their 11 opponents (saw this before game 12) have a defense ranked 88th or worse (Avg. defense faced is 96th in the country). They've faced two Top 50 defenses and no top 25 defenses. (Shoutout College Football Nerds)

FSU is not a worry without their QB and Texas hasn't looked stellar much of the year, outside of catching an Alabama team that was still finding itself.

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They play tough on both sides of the ball and looked very good.

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they've played exactly 1 team that has made them sweat and it was in week 12. Lots of teams could look good if they could honestly prep for 11 weeks for their only hard game.

I know our 2023 squad isn't nearly as good as our 2021 squad, but we heard similar things 2 years ago abotu them too and they didn't even belong on the field with us. We probably wouldn't rout them, they'd give us a game, but they wouldn't win.

Only 2 Championship games have 2 top 10 teams.

Big 12 Championship game 6 vs 20
big 10 Championship Game 2vs 17
pac 12 Championship Game 3 vs 5
ACC Championship Game 4 vs 15
Sec Championship Game 1 vs 8

Iowa lost to a not all that good Penn State Team 31-0 and lost to Minnesota and in general have shown little offensive and that’s gonna be weighed the same as UGA vs Bama.

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You could say the same thing of us

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I don't mean made them sweat in the sense of "gave them a tough game". I meant inthe sense that they had to actually show up, truly prep for, truly get the juices going for, etc.

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outside of maybe Mizzou the teams we’ve beaten haven’t been stellar the rest of the season

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@AU and Florida the first half the season are games we 100% had to be all there for, game prep wise and mentally. Missouri and Ole miss are both currently ranked in the top 11 nad that's WITH the losses we handed to both. Not ot mention a road game at a UT team in the top 20 at game time.

Ohio State is really the only true test michican has had and it was week 12. You can argue penn state i suppose, but they are on a "beat 10 scrubs, lose to OSU/Michigan, finish in top 10, repeat" cycle. So I mean I guess Michigcan had to get up for it but it's not like PSU is that good.

The only thing that concerns me with Michigan is their experience. They have I think 20 seniors starting, many of whom got run off the field in the Orange Bowl. Those are the teams that can beat more athletic teams.

FSU is the only cakewalk we could face. Oregon, Washington, or Texas would also give us a game.

We'd be favored in all and rightfully so, but we aren't playing TCU again.