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re: My analysis so far
Posted on 10/3/16 at 10:46 am to cokebottleag
Posted on 10/3/16 at 10:46 am to cokebottleag
My analysis:
Defense:
It's scary good. Great depth on the defensive line. Stays fresh until late. Garrett is the best player in the country. Dae Dae is a top 50 guy, should be drafted in the first two rounds. We will need Garrett against UT/Bama. The Watts/Wilson/Evans trio is amazing. Defenses seem to throw completely away from Willis, which is great. Coincidentally, it leads us staring at a corner wearing "Number 1" again making boneheaded PI plays, yet again... but o well. I'd don't care about PI as much as I used to because a fresh set of downs against us is meh. I like our odds. The only thing that's suspect is our run control, and since Chavis likes to bring numbers to stop the run, we are vulnerable to the big run if the linebackers are out of position or get blown up. Shouldn't happen often, but it will happen a few more times this season.
What does this mean against Tennessee's offense? I think that's great for us if we can get a quick lead. They seem to be the most successful when Dobbs is the one man show, and aren't going to put themselves in to many situations where they can exploit our run weakness. Myles and Dae Dae should tee off.
Offense:
Tabuyo is a gem. He needs to get in the rotation more. Speedy underwhelms more than he shines, and I think we could really get a lot out of our receiving corps if Tabuyo spells him more often. Kirk is a boss. So is Reynolds. The line has played great other than the snaps. And can we praise Trayveon Williams enough? We have enough in Ford/White to utilize Trayveon perfectly.
Knight had his worst game in an Aggie uniform. On the season, he's 54% passing, which isn't great or even mediocre. South Carolina was actually his BEST game completion percentage wise. Yikes. More telling is averaging 7 yards per attempt, which is about 83rd in the country. It's not good. But you know what, it's not that much worse than Dobbs, even thought they ask Dobbs to throw it way less. Still, the more TK8 tries to gamble with his arm, the worse off we are. It really could have snowballed against South Carolina if their DBs had better hands. Fortunately, he does trust his legs, and the coaching staff does a great job of mixing in run stuff to keep them honest. But this is key.
What does this mean against the Tennessee defense? We CANNOT play from too far behind with Trevor as QB1. I know he's a great leader and he says all the right things, but given how he STILL abandons the pocket too early, throws in to coverage, and tends to throw ducks every now and then, I'd hate to see him when his confidence gets rattled because it won't be pretty. The same thing happened at Oklahoma and it was really close to rearing it's ugly head again. But.... a good reason that won't happen? Trayveon AND Trevor are both in the top 15 in the country in rushing yards per attempt and both have OVER 50 attempts. Among players with over 50 rushing attempts, they are 1st and 4th in the entire country, respectively. And this isn't just against terrible defenses. These stats will hold.
My prediction? We have about a 70% chance of winning. What's the line? A&M -5.5? A&M -6.5? That sounds about right.
Defense:
It's scary good. Great depth on the defensive line. Stays fresh until late. Garrett is the best player in the country. Dae Dae is a top 50 guy, should be drafted in the first two rounds. We will need Garrett against UT/Bama. The Watts/Wilson/Evans trio is amazing. Defenses seem to throw completely away from Willis, which is great. Coincidentally, it leads us staring at a corner wearing "Number 1" again making boneheaded PI plays, yet again... but o well. I'd don't care about PI as much as I used to because a fresh set of downs against us is meh. I like our odds. The only thing that's suspect is our run control, and since Chavis likes to bring numbers to stop the run, we are vulnerable to the big run if the linebackers are out of position or get blown up. Shouldn't happen often, but it will happen a few more times this season.
What does this mean against Tennessee's offense? I think that's great for us if we can get a quick lead. They seem to be the most successful when Dobbs is the one man show, and aren't going to put themselves in to many situations where they can exploit our run weakness. Myles and Dae Dae should tee off.
Offense:
Tabuyo is a gem. He needs to get in the rotation more. Speedy underwhelms more than he shines, and I think we could really get a lot out of our receiving corps if Tabuyo spells him more often. Kirk is a boss. So is Reynolds. The line has played great other than the snaps. And can we praise Trayveon Williams enough? We have enough in Ford/White to utilize Trayveon perfectly.
Knight had his worst game in an Aggie uniform. On the season, he's 54% passing, which isn't great or even mediocre. South Carolina was actually his BEST game completion percentage wise. Yikes. More telling is averaging 7 yards per attempt, which is about 83rd in the country. It's not good. But you know what, it's not that much worse than Dobbs, even thought they ask Dobbs to throw it way less. Still, the more TK8 tries to gamble with his arm, the worse off we are. It really could have snowballed against South Carolina if their DBs had better hands. Fortunately, he does trust his legs, and the coaching staff does a great job of mixing in run stuff to keep them honest. But this is key.
What does this mean against the Tennessee defense? We CANNOT play from too far behind with Trevor as QB1. I know he's a great leader and he says all the right things, but given how he STILL abandons the pocket too early, throws in to coverage, and tends to throw ducks every now and then, I'd hate to see him when his confidence gets rattled because it won't be pretty. The same thing happened at Oklahoma and it was really close to rearing it's ugly head again. But.... a good reason that won't happen? Trayveon AND Trevor are both in the top 15 in the country in rushing yards per attempt and both have OVER 50 attempts. Among players with over 50 rushing attempts, they are 1st and 4th in the entire country, respectively. And this isn't just against terrible defenses. These stats will hold.
My prediction? We have about a 70% chance of winning. What's the line? A&M -5.5? A&M -6.5? That sounds about right.
1
Posted on 10/3/16 at 12:12 pm to TeLeFaWx
quote:
Knight had his worst game in an Aggie uniform. On the season, he's 54% passing, which isn't great or even mediocre. South Carolina was actually his BEST game completion percentage wise. Yikes. More telling is averaging 7 yards per attempt, which is about 83rd in the country. It's not good. But you know what, it's not that much worse than Dobbs, even thought they ask Dobbs to throw it way less. Still, the more TK8 tries to gamble with his arm, the worse off we are. It really could have snowballed against South Carolina if their DBs had better hands. Fortunately, he does trust his legs, and the coaching staff does a great job of mixing in run stuff to keep them honest. But this is key.
If you noticed, the vast majority of our passes against USC were bubbles or swing passes. It was like Spaz circa 2014. Maybe we did that because we saw something in the secondary that we didn't want to risk, but it was quite troubling.
Some poll on ****** had more people saying we would win out than have 3 losses. I think with Knight at the helm, we are more likely to go 9-3 than 11-1. I see our losses being OM, Bama, and either UT or LSU this year. Knight is serviceable, you could call him a 3* QB.
Posted on 10/3/16 at 12:23 pm to cokebottleag
If we stay healthy and knight doesn't make mistakes we keep winning
Posted on 10/3/16 at 1:06 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
If you noticed, the vast majority of our passes against USC were bubbles or swing passes. It was like Spaz circa 2014. Maybe we did that because we saw something in the secondary that we didn't want to risk, but it was quite troubling.
I mean, we do inside runs, bubble screens, swing passes to set up bigger plays, which is fine with me. It's just not executed that well with Trevor sometimes, and stalls out drives.
quote:
Some poll on ****** had more people saying we would win out than have 3 losses. I think with Knight at the helm, we are more likely to go 9-3 than 11-1. I see our losses being OM, Bama, and either UT or LSU this year. Knight is serviceable, you could call him a 3* QB.
Well. According to ESPN's FPI, which starts to get pretty accurate this time of year, we have a:
68.7% chance against UT
31.9% chance against Bama
99.5% chance against New Mexico State
78.1% chance against Mississippi State
64.8% chance against Ole Miss
99.4% chance against UTSA
61.6% chance against LSU
Which means we have a 6.27% chance of having 3 losses, a 6.76% of winning out.(However ESPN's FPI places our chances of winning out at 4.3 so I'm assuming they factor in another game against Tennessee or whomever in Atlanta).
However. We have a 12.99% chance of beating Bama and losing to someone else in conference play, thus still ending up in Atlanta.
But let's say we get on the other side of this Tennessee game... our odds to make it to Atlanta nearly double to 24.33%.
Posted on 10/3/16 at 1:29 pm to TeLeFaWx
The USCe game looked like scripted scrimmage to me, like mazzone was just trying to put things on film.
Not to mention we were super cautious with all of our top players.
Also of note: RSJ and Speedy are much more important as blockers than receivers.
Not to mention we were super cautious with all of our top players.
Also of note: RSJ and Speedy are much more important as blockers than receivers.
Posted on 10/3/16 at 1:30 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
If you noticed, the vast majority of our passes against USC were bubbles or swing passes.
I'm not sure if you're aware but most of our passing offense this year are such plays. They are an important way to get playmakers in space and force defenses to move out of the box. Our run game is successful because safeties have to worry about that too and can't crash the box.
The primary reason this hasn't worked well the last few years is that our run game has been atrocious. When good defenses can leave 5 in the box and know you still can't run, nothing much is going to work.
Our run game forces teams to keep 6 in the box. Our deep passing game forces safeties high. Our screen games forces safeties wider. All this stuff works in conjunction when things are going well.
Posted on 10/3/16 at 2:43 pm to TeLeFaWx
quote:
TeLeFaWx
Math, you're good at it.
Posted on 10/3/16 at 2:46 pm to Nguyening
quote:
The USCe game looked like scripted scrimmage to me, like mazzone was just trying to put things on film.
Absolutely, the passing game in the first half was like a spring scrimmage and they were just kicking knights tires
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