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re: 2016 Texas A&M Baseball Thread
Posted on 5/2/16 at 1:11 pm to Old Sarge
Posted on 5/2/16 at 1:11 pm to Old Sarge
let's again examine non-SEC/ACC potential national seeds. This focus is on weekend games which I believe the committee will prioritize.
I'm going to put A&M in the same format for comparison
Texas Aggies 35-9 (5 RPI, 29 SOS)
Top 50 series wins: 11 @MSU (3-0), 15 LSU (2-1), 34 UGA (3-0)
Top 50 series losses: 1 @UF (0-3)
non-Top 50 series losses: none
NOTES: last 3 remaining series are vs top 25 RPI teams. Currently 1st in SECW
UCSB 29-10-1 (9 RPI, 36 SOS)
Top 50 series wins: 39 @LBSU (2-1)
Top 50 series losses: none
non-Top 50 series losses: 86 @CalPoly (0-3), 100 @Oregon (1-2)
non-Top 50 series splits: 74 @Charleston (1-1-1)
NOTES: only one top 100 RPI series left, at home vs Big West leading CSF. 16 scheduled games remaining with no conference tourney
Texas Tech 34-13 (13 RPI, 30 SOS)
Top 50 series wins: 22 @OkieSt (3-0), 23 @TCU (2-1)
Top 50 series losses: 41 CSF (1-2)
Top 50 series splits: 49 @Cal (1-1)
non-Top 50 series losses: 124 Texas (1-2)
NOTES: went 2-1 in HCC in what amounted to a "weekend" series. Leading B12 by 2 games. All 7 remaining games vs 100+ RPI teams
Coastal Carolina 31-14 (17 RPI, 14 SOS)
Top 50 series wins: none
Top 50 series losses: 18 @GT (0-3)
non-Top 50 series losses: none
NOTES: hosted FOUR weekend tourneys to start season and went 2-2 vs Top 50 RPI teams in those. Has 3 midweek top 50 RPI wins as well. Will win Big South. All remaining weekend series vs 100+ RPI
Southern Miss 31-14 (19 RPI, 28 SOS)
Top 50 series wins: 30 RIce (2-1), 48 NW State (3-0)
Top 50 series losses: 29 @FAU (1-2)
non-Top 50 series losses: none
NOTES: co-leader of CUSA w/Rice (who is now prob out of NS picture). 3 Remaining weekend series vs 90, 64, and 101.
I'm going to put A&M in the same format for comparison
Texas Aggies 35-9 (5 RPI, 29 SOS)
Top 50 series wins: 11 @MSU (3-0), 15 LSU (2-1), 34 UGA (3-0)
Top 50 series losses: 1 @UF (0-3)
non-Top 50 series losses: none
NOTES: last 3 remaining series are vs top 25 RPI teams. Currently 1st in SECW
UCSB 29-10-1 (9 RPI, 36 SOS)
Top 50 series wins: 39 @LBSU (2-1)
Top 50 series losses: none
non-Top 50 series losses: 86 @CalPoly (0-3), 100 @Oregon (1-2)
non-Top 50 series splits: 74 @Charleston (1-1-1)
NOTES: only one top 100 RPI series left, at home vs Big West leading CSF. 16 scheduled games remaining with no conference tourney
Texas Tech 34-13 (13 RPI, 30 SOS)
Top 50 series wins: 22 @OkieSt (3-0), 23 @TCU (2-1)
Top 50 series losses: 41 CSF (1-2)
Top 50 series splits: 49 @Cal (1-1)
non-Top 50 series losses: 124 Texas (1-2)
NOTES: went 2-1 in HCC in what amounted to a "weekend" series. Leading B12 by 2 games. All 7 remaining games vs 100+ RPI teams
Coastal Carolina 31-14 (17 RPI, 14 SOS)
Top 50 series wins: none
Top 50 series losses: 18 @GT (0-3)
non-Top 50 series losses: none
NOTES: hosted FOUR weekend tourneys to start season and went 2-2 vs Top 50 RPI teams in those. Has 3 midweek top 50 RPI wins as well. Will win Big South. All remaining weekend series vs 100+ RPI
Southern Miss 31-14 (19 RPI, 28 SOS)
Top 50 series wins: 30 RIce (2-1), 48 NW State (3-0)
Top 50 series losses: 29 @FAU (1-2)
non-Top 50 series losses: none
NOTES: co-leader of CUSA w/Rice (who is now prob out of NS picture). 3 Remaining weekend series vs 90, 64, and 101.
1
Posted on 5/2/16 at 1:12 pm to tmc94
Probably none of these teams have strong National Seed resumes. And I'm struggling to make a case for anyone outside these 4. But I still think the committee will take at least 2 of them. I'd probably rank them
1. Tech
2. UCSB
3. USM
4. Coastal
IMO Tech just needs to not frick up and they are a national seed. UCSB needs to beat Fullerton and win the Big West, if not, I think USM could pip them (provided they win CUSA).
It's hard to see a scenario Coastal gets in the discussion coming off being swept this weekend by Ga Tech. But it's a little like Mizzou State last year. Killed a weak conference (season and tourney) without racking up top 50 wins. MSU ended the season 45-10 though. But if the committee wants to continue making a statement promoting the lil guy again, Coastal is their poster boy.
1. Tech
2. UCSB
3. USM
4. Coastal
IMO Tech just needs to not frick up and they are a national seed. UCSB needs to beat Fullerton and win the Big West, if not, I think USM could pip them (provided they win CUSA).
It's hard to see a scenario Coastal gets in the discussion coming off being swept this weekend by Ga Tech. But it's a little like Mizzou State last year. Killed a weak conference (season and tourney) without racking up top 50 wins. MSU ended the season 45-10 though. But if the committee wants to continue making a statement promoting the lil guy again, Coastal is their poster boy.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 1:14 pm to tmc94
And in my quest to find another potential option, I ran across Bryant
Bryant
Remaining: 5 home, 9 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 25
ROWP: 0.382
Top 32:
No way to reach the threshold.
That's right. With a current RPI of 25, Bryant has no way to reach a final RPI of top 32. How is that possible? Because they have 14 games remaining and every single one is vs a 200+ RPI opponent. That ROWP is Remaining Opponent Winning Percentage. 0.382.
And for those scoring at home (or even if you're by yourself), Florida with 11 games remaining has a "No more wins needed." to reach Top 8 RPI.
Bryant
Remaining: 5 home, 9 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 25
ROWP: 0.382
Top 32:
No way to reach the threshold.
That's right. With a current RPI of 25, Bryant has no way to reach a final RPI of top 32. How is that possible? Because they have 14 games remaining and every single one is vs a 200+ RPI opponent. That ROWP is Remaining Opponent Winning Percentage. 0.382.
And for those scoring at home (or even if you're by yourself), Florida with 11 games remaining has a "No more wins needed." to reach Top 8 RPI.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 1:33 pm to tmc94
Good analysis. I agree with your ranking with the chance of UCSB moving ahead of Tech as the year plays out. This is assuming UCSB beats CSF head to head and wins the Big West. Anything short of that, then they have no shot.
According to Boyd's RPI Needs. If Tech loses 2 more games they cannot finish in the top 16 RPI. This may have been answered earlier in the thread (or at least questioned) but what is the highest RPI ever to receive a national seed?
UCSB still has a shot to finish in the top 8. They may very well "earn" their national seed. You know the committee will be wanting to give it to them.
And speaking of UCSB hosting. Their regional last year was 175 miles from their campus. Does anyone remember if they were the host of USC(the 2 seed) was.
According to Boyd's RPI Needs. If Tech loses 2 more games they cannot finish in the top 16 RPI. This may have been answered earlier in the thread (or at least questioned) but what is the highest RPI ever to receive a national seed?
UCSB still has a shot to finish in the top 8. They may very well "earn" their national seed. You know the committee will be wanting to give it to them.
And speaking of UCSB hosting. Their regional last year was 175 miles from their campus. Does anyone remember if they were the host of USC(the 2 seed) was.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 1:34 pm to tmc94
quote:
Florida with 11 games remaining has a "No more wins needed." to reach Top 8 RPI.
I saw that too and chuckled to myself.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:01 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
And speaking of UCSB hosting. Their regional last year was 175 miles from their campus. Does anyone remember if they were the host of USC(the 2 seed) was.
Appears they were considered hosts
"The regional hosted by UC Santa Barbara will be played at The Diamond in Lake Elsinore, California. "
LINK
Does make me wonder if it will that be held against them this year? Would they be able to sell tickets? USC, UCLA, SDSU, No one nearby is going to be in it
The west coast is such a clusterfrick
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:07 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
According to Boyd's RPI Needs. If Tech loses 2 more games they cannot finish in the top 16 RPI. This may have been answered earlier in the thread (or at least questioned) but what is the highest RPI ever to receive a national seed?
it's a good question and it's too much work to figure it out but I think someone may have made it at 15-16.
But one thing to remember about Tech is they get the B12 tourney too. That can be a blessing or a curse depending on who they draw.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:14 pm to tmc94
From D1's Chat:
... I wonder who asked that
quote:
Comment From Ty
Outside of UCSB & TTU, can any non SEC/ACC team earn a national seed? Even TTU needs to finish 7-1 just to stay in the top 16 RPI before Bricktown.
Kendall Rogers:
Ty,
If there is another team, they will have to come out of the woodwork the final 3/4 weeks of the regular season. Right now, I think you have 11 teams for 8 spots, the other three being NC State, UCSB and Ole Miss. Yes, the national seed "bubble" is that small.
... I wonder who asked that
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:20 pm to Farmer1906
he's still projecting 4 SEC national seeds and 3 ACC, right? And his "bubble" teams are an SEC, an ACC, and UCSB. frick
Here's the thing though. I think the committee will try really hard to limit to 3 seeds per conference. And if so our margin of error is exceedingly small. For instance...
win each of the last 3 series 2-1 we may well be the #1 or #2 overall seed
lose the SC series and another to go 4-5 down strech and MSU or OM goes 7-2. We get bumped imo as UF gets 1, SC beating us (and sweeping OM) gets 2, and the West winner gets #3.
All based on a 2-game swing
Here's the thing though. I think the committee will try really hard to limit to 3 seeds per conference. And if so our margin of error is exceedingly small. For instance...
win each of the last 3 series 2-1 we may well be the #1 or #2 overall seed
lose the SC series and another to go 4-5 down strech and MSU or OM goes 7-2. We get bumped imo as UF gets 1, SC beating us (and sweeping OM) gets 2, and the West winner gets #3.
All based on a 2-game swing
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:38 pm to tmc94
quote:
he's still projecting 4 SEC national seeds and 3 ACC, right? And his "bubble" teams are an SEC, an ACC, and UCSB. frick
I think he has UF, A&M, MSU, USC, Miami, FSU, UL, & TTU are his 8 (no order). NC State, OM, & UCSB on the outside looking in.
If we finish 6-4 (5-4) I just cannot see us getting left out. Assuming RPI doesn't change too drastically, 10-8 vs the top 25, 5-1 vs 26-50, and series wins vs LSU, @MSU, OM, VAN (assuming we lose to @USC). It might get even better if UGA gets back in to the top 25 and Bama gets back in to the top 50.
The only real knocks on our resume is getting swept @ UF & out non con SOS.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 4:41 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
This may have been answered earlier in the thread (or at least questioned) but what is the highest RPI ever to receive a national seed?
this research only goes back to 2009 and im just going to assume it holds true back to 2005 or whenever they retooled the RPI formula as its only been the last few years that the west was so weak that they had to be "gifted" seeds.
LINK
Over four seasons from 2010 to 2013, no team with an RPI lower than No. 12 on selection day has earned a national seed.
looks like louisville broke that streak last year at #13
The lowest-ranked team to earn a national seed in the last five years was UC Irvine in 2009. The Anteaters were 18th in RPI but ran away with the Big West title.
The last time a team outside the top 20 in RPI was a regional host was in 2011, when Oregon State (No. 31) and UCLA (No. 34) both hosted.
UCSB was #23 last year so as you can see they are more than willing to break the norm for teams out west.
Bottom line, UCSB and Tech will be national seeds barring a major collapse.
This post was edited on 5/2/16 at 4:43 pm
Posted on 5/2/16 at 4:47 pm to Uncle Gunnysack
quote:
UCSB and Tech will be national seeds barring a major collapse.
It isn't going to take a major collapse for UCSB to not win the Big West. They're a game behind CSF with a head to head match up left. If CSF takes 2/3 that is a 2 game lead with not a lot of season left.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 4:48 pm to tmc94
quote:
And in my quest to find another potential option, I ran across Bryant
I learned something new. I'd never heard of Bryant University. (And I've been around awhile
) I mostly agree with your 4 - Tech will get a NS if they don't screw up. I'd put Southern Miss ahead of UCSB but I admit a local bias, and in any case they may be hurt more by their geographic region than a so-so finishing A&M is for their conference.
As you and Farmer alluded to, what can hurt A&M is an attempt to limit the number of national seeds per conference. Just win, baby. This weekend is big. At USC is HUGE. Win that 2-1 and I think it removes all doubt.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 4:50 pm to tmc94
quote:
Florida with 11 games remaining has a "No more wins needed." to reach Top 8 RPI.
Thank you, Texas A&M!
Posted on 5/2/16 at 4:52 pm to Farmer1906
didnt realize that. no way you can justify a national seed if they dont win the league. i think SEC gets 4 in that case.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 5:11 pm to Uncle Gunnysack
yeah, there is definitely a bias towards winning your league
Mizzou State got a national seed last year above DBU despite DBU having a top 8 RPI because MSU won the MVC (same league as DBU)
Louisville was rewarded last year above FSU by virtue of finishing 8 games ahead in the ACC (despite a lower RPI mostly due to an easier schedule)
TCU was bumped to a national seed last year ahead of higher RPI OSU by virtue of winning the B12
So the committee clearly cares about winning your league/division even if officially they say it doesn't matter. For the SEC, the best thing that can happen is Fullerton winning that series. And probably Rice winning CUSA.
Mizzou State got a national seed last year above DBU despite DBU having a top 8 RPI because MSU won the MVC (same league as DBU)
Louisville was rewarded last year above FSU by virtue of finishing 8 games ahead in the ACC (despite a lower RPI mostly due to an easier schedule)
TCU was bumped to a national seed last year ahead of higher RPI OSU by virtue of winning the B12
So the committee clearly cares about winning your league/division even if officially they say it doesn't matter. For the SEC, the best thing that can happen is Fullerton winning that series. And probably Rice winning CUSA.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 5:16 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
Thank you, Texas A&M!
the sweep of us definitely helps but UF has
37-7 overall record with 2nd SOS
2-1 @ #4 RPI Miami
3-0 vs #6 FSU (series of midweek games home/away/neutral)
16-7 vs top 50 RPI
23-1 in non-conference
no losses outside top 50 RPI
Posted on 5/2/16 at 5:21 pm to tmc94
So you're saying they're pretty good.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 5:36 pm to finestfirst79
well, their resume definitely is
Posted on 5/3/16 at 5:26 pm to tmc94
looks like a new rotation this weekend with Vines out. Guesses?
Other comments he made sounded like they'll keep Hill on Friday and pitch Simonds Saturday (series starts on a THU) so whoever steps in will open the series
quote:
"We've got several guys. Certainly, Tyler Ivey is a guy that we've got to get back on the horse to get him going again, whether it's out of the bullpen or starting. He was really good for us early in the year. Turner Larkins is a guy that's pitched at a very high level for us the last couple of weeks. He's starting to get healthy and starting to pitch with some intent. Obviously, Mitchell Kilkenny and Stephen Kolek have done a nice job for us as well."- Rob Childress
Other comments he made sounded like they'll keep Hill on Friday and pitch Simonds Saturday (series starts on a THU) so whoever steps in will open the series
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