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UNC vs. USC preview/pregame thread
Posted on 8/27/15 at 11:45 pm
Posted on 8/27/15 at 11:45 pm
With the SEC season starting one week from today, I thought we could take a look at the first matchup and hopefully we'll be able to know a couple things going into that game.
Offense
QB: Advantage - UNC
This in large part will depend on which Marquise Williams shows up. The one who excelled against Clemson (345 passing yards, 4td), ND (455 total yards, 4td), GT (463 total yards, 5td), and Pitt (398 total yards, 4td), or the one who struggled mightily against NC St (97 passing yards) and ECU (127 passing yards). Williams has a lot of talent and reminds me a little bit of Vince Young and Cardale Jones with the way tacklers struggle to bring him down sometimes (obviously not to the same extent), and a surprising quickness where he breaks away from the defender and it doesn't look like he's running that hard. Connor Mitch may be great, but as of this point he is pretty much an unknown and I'm not incredibly confident in him based on how long it took for him to be named the starter. Mitch had a very impressive high school career and definitely looks the part of a starting college quarterback. This is his first meaningful game, and I'm especially worried because he is going back to his home state of North Carolina where he could be feeling more pressure than normal to play well in his first start. There's a chance he could be another really good QB that Spurrier has developed, but I'm not quite sure yet it's going to happen in game 1.
RB: Push
As impressed as I was with Brandon Wilds at points last season, he didn't do a whole lot outside of the Tennessee game and Tennessee's run defense last year was not the strength of their team to be kind. His season was very similar stats-wise to T.J Logan's (UNC starting RB) who came on pretty strong at the end of last season and showed a good pass-catching ability as well. They are different backs in the sense that Wilds is more physical (very impressive in the UGA game) and Logan is a speedy and elusive type of back. I thought about giving UNC the slight advantage because of the back-ups, but even though Hood (UNC) was a 5 star and Williams (USC) was just a 4 star, they've been just what you would expect young back ups to be and Williams has arguably been better so far.
WR/TE: Slight advantage - UNC
Pharoh Cooper may be the best receiver in the SEC, and is definitely the best receiver in this game, but I had to give a slight edge to UNC solely because they are returning so much more depth at the WR position than South Carolina who really only returns Cooper and their TE, Jerrell Adams. Deebo Samuel will provide good speed, and Shamier Jeffery (who hasn't quite been as good as his older brother Alshon), will look to have a breakout season finally. Watching UNC's receivers I'm very impressed with all of the different roles the can play. Switzer is a scrappy (he might not be, but you have to say that for a short, white receiver) player who is incredibly quick and can be a solid possession receiver as well. Mack Hollins provides a huge deep threat who has great leaping ability and can catch the ball at its highest point as well. Quinshad Davis had his worst season at UNC last year, and is coming into this season off a broken leg in a bowl game, but he is very effective in goal line situations, especially running a fade on the right side of the field. Jonathan Howard also had a great year as a freshman last year, and proved he could be very effective on quick routes. It's definitely one of the strongest positions on the UNC roster.
OL: Slight advantage - USC
Going into the offseason, UNC looked to have an advantage at this position returning all 5 starters, but they had one guard leave the team, and then they currently have 2 centers and another guard going through injuries. They moved potential first round pick at guard Landon Turner to center, and even though they may be better a couple weeks into the season, you could see the injuries take effect in the first game against the SC defensive line. The USC O line which was expected to be one of the best in the nation didn't live up to expectations last year, in large part due to injuries. Mike Matulis and Cody Waldrop who both went down early in the season last year, look to be healthy and the line overall returns a combined 67 starts between the group. The losses of A.J Cann and Corey Robinson will definitely hurt, but I think they appear to be slightly healthier heading into game 1 than their opponents.
Offense
QB: Advantage - UNC
This in large part will depend on which Marquise Williams shows up. The one who excelled against Clemson (345 passing yards, 4td), ND (455 total yards, 4td), GT (463 total yards, 5td), and Pitt (398 total yards, 4td), or the one who struggled mightily against NC St (97 passing yards) and ECU (127 passing yards). Williams has a lot of talent and reminds me a little bit of Vince Young and Cardale Jones with the way tacklers struggle to bring him down sometimes (obviously not to the same extent), and a surprising quickness where he breaks away from the defender and it doesn't look like he's running that hard. Connor Mitch may be great, but as of this point he is pretty much an unknown and I'm not incredibly confident in him based on how long it took for him to be named the starter. Mitch had a very impressive high school career and definitely looks the part of a starting college quarterback. This is his first meaningful game, and I'm especially worried because he is going back to his home state of North Carolina where he could be feeling more pressure than normal to play well in his first start. There's a chance he could be another really good QB that Spurrier has developed, but I'm not quite sure yet it's going to happen in game 1.
RB: Push
As impressed as I was with Brandon Wilds at points last season, he didn't do a whole lot outside of the Tennessee game and Tennessee's run defense last year was not the strength of their team to be kind. His season was very similar stats-wise to T.J Logan's (UNC starting RB) who came on pretty strong at the end of last season and showed a good pass-catching ability as well. They are different backs in the sense that Wilds is more physical (very impressive in the UGA game) and Logan is a speedy and elusive type of back. I thought about giving UNC the slight advantage because of the back-ups, but even though Hood (UNC) was a 5 star and Williams (USC) was just a 4 star, they've been just what you would expect young back ups to be and Williams has arguably been better so far.
WR/TE: Slight advantage - UNC
Pharoh Cooper may be the best receiver in the SEC, and is definitely the best receiver in this game, but I had to give a slight edge to UNC solely because they are returning so much more depth at the WR position than South Carolina who really only returns Cooper and their TE, Jerrell Adams. Deebo Samuel will provide good speed, and Shamier Jeffery (who hasn't quite been as good as his older brother Alshon), will look to have a breakout season finally. Watching UNC's receivers I'm very impressed with all of the different roles the can play. Switzer is a scrappy (he might not be, but you have to say that for a short, white receiver) player who is incredibly quick and can be a solid possession receiver as well. Mack Hollins provides a huge deep threat who has great leaping ability and can catch the ball at its highest point as well. Quinshad Davis had his worst season at UNC last year, and is coming into this season off a broken leg in a bowl game, but he is very effective in goal line situations, especially running a fade on the right side of the field. Jonathan Howard also had a great year as a freshman last year, and proved he could be very effective on quick routes. It's definitely one of the strongest positions on the UNC roster.
OL: Slight advantage - USC
Going into the offseason, UNC looked to have an advantage at this position returning all 5 starters, but they had one guard leave the team, and then they currently have 2 centers and another guard going through injuries. They moved potential first round pick at guard Landon Turner to center, and even though they may be better a couple weeks into the season, you could see the injuries take effect in the first game against the SC defensive line. The USC O line which was expected to be one of the best in the nation didn't live up to expectations last year, in large part due to injuries. Mike Matulis and Cody Waldrop who both went down early in the season last year, look to be healthy and the line overall returns a combined 67 starts between the group. The losses of A.J Cann and Corey Robinson will definitely hurt, but I think they appear to be slightly healthier heading into game 1 than their opponents.
This post was edited on 8/27/15 at 11:46 pm
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Posted on 8/27/15 at 11:45 pm to Dawgsontop34
Defense
DL: Slight Advantage - USC
Giving a slight advantage to USC on the defensive line after their performance last year seems a little absurd, but that should show you just how bad North Carolina's defensive line has been. UNC was 117th last year in rushing defense and 92nd in team sacks, which looks bad. South Carolina was 103rd in run defense and 119th in sacks allowed. This could be a good game for these offenses to build confidence to say the least. The reason I gave South Carolina the edge is because IMO they added a more impressive group of players in Marquavius Lewis, Dexter Wideman, and Donte Sawyer who should help South Carolina average more than just over 1 sack a game this season.
LB: Slight advantage - USC
I think these two teams linebacking cores are actually very similar. Both have very solid players at the MLB position (Schoettmer for UNC, Moore for USC), and a little bit more of a question on the outside, but South Carolina definitely has more proven players at the position. Bryson Allen-Williams will move back to the linebacker position and Jonathan Walton will still be there as well. This group did miss a lot of tackles last season, but they should be much improved this year. UNC boasts on ok group with a little bit of experience (Shakeel Rashad is a Sr. at one OLB), but their players just aren't quite as talented as the Gamecocks' group and I think we will notice the difference a week from today.
DB: Slight advantage - USC
This is another position that South Carolina may not consider an advantage against most teams, because their cornerbacks definitely struggled a little bit last year, but both McWilliams and Lammons should be improved after starting for a full year, and this group also adds a transfer in from Kansas, Big 12 defensive newcomer of the year Isaiah Johnson. T.J. Gurley moved up to the SPUR position for this season which I think is a great decision, because it won't require him to cover as much, and he can be huge in run defense which is a major strength of his. The good thing for North Carolina is that they return 7 of their top 8 defensive backs from last season. The bad thing is that group ranked 101st last year in pass yards allowed per game and also allowed an ACC record 31 touchdowns.
Special Teams: Push
I'd definitely give the kicking advantage to Fry, and as of now you'd probably have to give a little bit of an advantage to SC because their new punter, FAU transfer Sean Kelley did average almost 43 yards per kick two years ago when he was still a member of the Owls. Corbin Daly is a Freshman punter who was ranked 2nd in his high school recruiting class, but you never know how that will translate to the college level. The returning edge makes this a push, because even though Pharoh Cooper is electric, he doesn't have the returning record that the UNC players do. It would be more of an advantage, but all of those returns happened two years ago, and last year there wasn't much of anything. Switzer had 5 punt return touchdowns his freshman year, and Logan had 2 kickoff return touchdowns. If they could get that magic back for this year it would be huge for UNC.
Coaching - Slight Edge: SC
The head coaching edge pretty clearly goes to Spurrier IMO, even though Fedora did a fantastic job at Southern Miss. I think Spurrier has one of the best offensive minds in all of football, and regardless of how much talent he has, he always seems to figure something out. I made this a slight edge, just because I believe that the Chizik upgrade for UNC is more impressive than Lorenzo Ward has been at SC. Chizik may have been poor at the end of his time at Auburn, but he has two national championships, and has proven himself to always be a good defensive coordinator. Ward was very good at the beginning of his career, and new co-DC Jon Hoke should help the pass defense, but it's not like the Bears have been great in pass coverage the last few years.
Overall, this should be a game with a lot of points, and a really fun way to start the season.
DL: Slight Advantage - USC
Giving a slight advantage to USC on the defensive line after their performance last year seems a little absurd, but that should show you just how bad North Carolina's defensive line has been. UNC was 117th last year in rushing defense and 92nd in team sacks, which looks bad. South Carolina was 103rd in run defense and 119th in sacks allowed. This could be a good game for these offenses to build confidence to say the least. The reason I gave South Carolina the edge is because IMO they added a more impressive group of players in Marquavius Lewis, Dexter Wideman, and Donte Sawyer who should help South Carolina average more than just over 1 sack a game this season.
LB: Slight advantage - USC
I think these two teams linebacking cores are actually very similar. Both have very solid players at the MLB position (Schoettmer for UNC, Moore for USC), and a little bit more of a question on the outside, but South Carolina definitely has more proven players at the position. Bryson Allen-Williams will move back to the linebacker position and Jonathan Walton will still be there as well. This group did miss a lot of tackles last season, but they should be much improved this year. UNC boasts on ok group with a little bit of experience (Shakeel Rashad is a Sr. at one OLB), but their players just aren't quite as talented as the Gamecocks' group and I think we will notice the difference a week from today.
DB: Slight advantage - USC
This is another position that South Carolina may not consider an advantage against most teams, because their cornerbacks definitely struggled a little bit last year, but both McWilliams and Lammons should be improved after starting for a full year, and this group also adds a transfer in from Kansas, Big 12 defensive newcomer of the year Isaiah Johnson. T.J. Gurley moved up to the SPUR position for this season which I think is a great decision, because it won't require him to cover as much, and he can be huge in run defense which is a major strength of his. The good thing for North Carolina is that they return 7 of their top 8 defensive backs from last season. The bad thing is that group ranked 101st last year in pass yards allowed per game and also allowed an ACC record 31 touchdowns.
Special Teams: Push
I'd definitely give the kicking advantage to Fry, and as of now you'd probably have to give a little bit of an advantage to SC because their new punter, FAU transfer Sean Kelley did average almost 43 yards per kick two years ago when he was still a member of the Owls. Corbin Daly is a Freshman punter who was ranked 2nd in his high school recruiting class, but you never know how that will translate to the college level. The returning edge makes this a push, because even though Pharoh Cooper is electric, he doesn't have the returning record that the UNC players do. It would be more of an advantage, but all of those returns happened two years ago, and last year there wasn't much of anything. Switzer had 5 punt return touchdowns his freshman year, and Logan had 2 kickoff return touchdowns. If they could get that magic back for this year it would be huge for UNC.
Coaching - Slight Edge: SC
The head coaching edge pretty clearly goes to Spurrier IMO, even though Fedora did a fantastic job at Southern Miss. I think Spurrier has one of the best offensive minds in all of football, and regardless of how much talent he has, he always seems to figure something out. I made this a slight edge, just because I believe that the Chizik upgrade for UNC is more impressive than Lorenzo Ward has been at SC. Chizik may have been poor at the end of his time at Auburn, but he has two national championships, and has proven himself to always be a good defensive coordinator. Ward was very good at the beginning of his career, and new co-DC Jon Hoke should help the pass defense, but it's not like the Bears have been great in pass coverage the last few years.
Overall, this should be a game with a lot of points, and a really fun way to start the season.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 11:55 pm to Dawgsontop34
Woooo love these threads. What's your prediction?
Posted on 8/28/15 at 12:24 am to Dawgsontop34
quote:
Dawgsontop34
Great job dude. Can't argue with anything you've said. I enjoyed reading this.
Posted on 8/28/15 at 8:32 am to BayouBengals03
quote:
What's your prediction?
I'm not sure quite yet. As of now, I'd probably take USC 38-35. I think Wilds is going to have a huge game, and the North Carolina defense is going to cost them again.
Posted on 8/28/15 at 8:35 am to Dawgsontop34
Is there expected to be any sort of home field advantage or is Charolette pretty neutral?
Posted on 8/28/15 at 8:37 am to Dawgsontop34
Cannot wait for some football that counts
Posted on 8/28/15 at 8:38 am to Dawgsontop34
17 starters returnong for UNC, 10 on offense. Of course, they were 6-7 last year. Should be better this year.
Posted on 8/28/15 at 8:39 am to JohnForney
I would have to think this is a big year for Fedora
Posted on 8/28/15 at 8:54 am to Dawgsontop34
quote:
Coaching - Slight Edge: SC
quote:
Slight
This post was edited on 8/28/15 at 8:55 am
Posted on 8/28/15 at 9:27 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
I would have to think this is a big year for Fedora
He could repeat last season, they aren't getting rid of him. They'll give Chiz 2-3 years to rebuild the defense that was awful last year (even worse than our's.) They'll also be hit with NCAA sanctions in the next year, so they won't be able to recruit a quality new HC if they wanted to fire Fedora.
Fedora has a lot of pieces in place to have a great year offensively, but not early in the season, as his OL is banged up. That might be misinformation though and they are just saying that some of their OL are Out.
We'll have a better defense than them this game. They should have a better offense. However, if we can run the ball, limit turnovers and grind clock, we'll limit their offense. I'm predicting we win by 10+, something like 38-27.
Posted on 8/28/15 at 9:57 am to Dawgsontop34
quote:
Coaching - Slight Edge: SC
Posted on 8/28/15 at 10:20 am to Dawgsontop34
One week away... want to watch Chiz and his defense... I will be pulling for him.
Posted on 8/28/15 at 10:52 am to Dawgsontop34
quote:
Dawgsontop34
I agree, although I think ST goes to UNC as return defense is similar, but return offense is pretty explosive. And coaching is clearly going to USC.
I actually think UNC squeaks by them. Completely different teams than the stars USC had when they spanked the Heels in 2013, and UNC's offense is better, and defense should at least be same or slightly better than that boondoggle last year. Lot of tickets left for it too, so no homefield advantage.
Posted on 8/28/15 at 10:53 am to KingSlayer
I said that I thought SC had the head coaching advantage. I just think UNC's coordinators are really good, and they got a massive upgrade on defense. Say want you want about Chizik as a head coach, but he was always a pretty successful coordinator IIRC.
Posted on 8/28/15 at 10:57 am to Dawgsontop34
I'm rooting for Carolina.
Posted on 8/28/15 at 11:00 am to Montezuma
Nice analysis by the OP. I would only point out that our QB (M. Williams) had a shoulder injury (surgery in the off season) the last half of the season which accounts for his falling production. The last part of the year, he could barely throw the ball and relied way too much on his legs.
I'm excited to be attending the game. It will be a 50/50 crowd in Charlotte that will be pretty juiced come game time (6:00pm).
The great unknown is whether Chiz's D can show improvement this early in the season. Our D was the worst in the nation last season. We could only win in shoot outs.
I'm excited to be attending the game. It will be a 50/50 crowd in Charlotte that will be pretty juiced come game time (6:00pm).
The great unknown is whether Chiz's D can show improvement this early in the season. Our D was the worst in the nation last season. We could only win in shoot outs.
Posted on 8/28/15 at 11:05 am to tWildcat
quote:
I'm rooting for Carolina.
Thanks, bro.
Posted on 8/28/15 at 11:07 am to Bluefin
Posted on 8/28/15 at 11:14 am to Dawgsontop34
By the 2nd quarter you and everyone in the stadium will realize there was no push at rb lol
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