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If Saban left tomorrow, how long would a decline take?

Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:15 am
Posted by BranchDawg
Flowery Branch
Member since Nov 2013
9830 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:15 am
Since there's always a million threads every year claiming Saban's leaving, I was thinking about the hypothetical of what a post-Saban Bama would look like.

Seems to me that Bama has built into such a machine that they would compete for a national title the year after he left even if Mickey Mouse was the coach.

Clearly if (and it's a big if) they didn't hire a great coach a decline would happen eventually, but how long would it take to happen in earnest given what's currently in place? 3 years? 5 years? 7 years?
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
44737 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:19 am to
They have enough talent in place that Ray Goff couldn't even screw it up within 4 years
Posted by UsingUpAllTheLetters
Stuck in Transfer Portal
Member since Aug 2011
8508 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:20 am to
Alabama Athletic Dept. the day Saban steps down: LINK
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6--Brazos River Backwater
Member since Sep 2015
26125 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:21 am to
You need to look no further than the decline of Bama after Bear Bryant. By 1984 they had a losing season (5-6) and although they had intermittent success over the next two decades, it wasn't til Saban was hired in 2007 that the Tide fully overcame mediocrity
Posted by Cobb Dawg
Member since Sep 2012
9804 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:26 am to
Beginning 09/02/2017.
This post was edited on 4/22/17 at 10:42 am
Posted by Tillman
Member since May 2016
12363 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:28 am to
Saban is only head coach with both NFL experience and natties. that is a huge selling point for alabama. that was a huge factor in SC getting better when Spurrier was there. SC dropped off immediately when Spurrier left.
This post was edited on 4/22/17 at 10:30 am
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
37581 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:39 am to
quote:

Saban is only head coach with both NFL experience and natties. that is a huge selling point for alabama. that was a huge factor in SC getting better when Spurrier was there. SC dropped off immediately when Spurrier left.



You really need to stick to politics and avoid the football discussions. Leave that to the adults.

You're wrong on both counts.

Posted by JamalSanders
On a boat
Member since Jul 2015
12135 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:41 am to
Lol.
Posted by makersmark1
earth
Member since Oct 2011
15748 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:42 am to
AJ McCarron will be the head coach.

He will be shirtless at all games.

His first 5 years will be 75-0 run. He will get a tat commemorating all the victories.

He will quit when his whole integument is completely covered with ink.

Then the decline will commence.

It will be a glorious decline. Multiple losing seasons.
Posted by Cobb Dawg
Member since Sep 2012
9804 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:43 am to
quote:



You're wrong on both counts.

Posted by Crimson Wraith
Member since Jan 2014
24725 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:44 am to
We're the only team in the conf that has at least 1 conf title in every decade since the conf was formed. We also had 4 Southern Conf titles before the SEC was formed.

5 different coaches have won national titles at BAMA, and all but 1 of those coaches won multiple national titles.

Most bowl appearances in the country, most bowl wins in the country, etc.

Besides Ears Whitworth in the 50's and Dubose (he won the '99 SEC title and beat SOS twice in '99) we haven't really had a true decline that wasn't due to sanctions. Heck, even Bill Curry won the SEC and 10 games in 1989.

Saban will leave us stocked.
Posted by Aman
Alabama
Member since Mar 2010
5181 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:45 am to
quote:

You need to look no further than the decline of Bama after Bear Bryant. By 1984 they had a losing season (5-6) and although they had intermittent success over the next two decades, it wasn't til Saban was hired in 2007 that the Tide fully overcame mediocrity



Bear Bryant's last season was mediocre and he had not stockpiled the level of talent Saban has. This question was what if Saban left tomorrow, not what if he left 8 years from now and his recruiting slipped his last few seasons. If Saban leaves tomorrow you have the same situation Coker walked into at Miami.
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
37694 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:48 am to
I expect a decline similar to what LSU experienced.

Next coach will win a natty with the talent Saban left and then we will be in a tough position to make coaching changes due to that.
Posted by RollTide4Ever
Nashville
Member since Nov 2006
18302 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:52 am to
The new Bama ad gives me hope that we won't screw it up.

In the older days, bama was bent on hiring Bryant successors except for the ones that actually won (Howard Schellenberger, Bowden).
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6--Brazos River Backwater
Member since Sep 2015
26125 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:52 am to
quote:

same situation Coker walked into at Miami

...or *gasp* Helfrich walked into at Oregon
Posted by BowlJackson
Birmingham, AL
Member since Sep 2013
52881 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:53 am to
quote:

Bryant successors except for the ones that actually won (Howard Schellenberger, Bowden, Dye).
Posted by Tillman
Member since May 2016
12363 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 10:59 am to
quote:

Leave that to the adults.


says a guy whose favorite expression is 'sheep humping'.


what am I wrong about. SC's recruiting was good under Spurrier, dropped off post Spurrier.

i don't think Saban's run at Alabama is all about Saban and Alabama. The other SEC teams not been as good much of Saban's tenure as in the past. i would think at some point some of the other teams will get more competitive.
This post was edited on 4/22/17 at 11:04 am
Posted by BIGJLAW
Member since Mar 2013
8419 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 11:00 am to
If we can find a coach better than Les Miles we will be OK. Lsu has ridden Sabans coat tails since he left and they seem to be doing alright.
Posted by hogNsinceReagan
Fayetteville, Ar
Member since Feb 2015
5879 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 11:00 am to
If Alabama was cool they would hire a coach who would install the triple option or the wildcat and win a natty with it.

My honest guess, though, is that the NCAA will pull the trigger on all the sanctions they've been sitting on. Will probably end ugly.
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 4/22/17 at 11:02 am to
It's taken LSU just under a decade.
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