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re: If everyone wins out still in contention, will the committee really
Posted on 11/26/14 at 10:24 am to WG_Dawg
Posted on 11/26/14 at 10:24 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
fair enough, happens to all of us.
Thanks, man.
I understand that can be quite infuriating. Can't believe I'm the dumbass I am normally pulling my hair out over.
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Posted on 11/26/14 at 10:24 am to wm72
Did you skip where I said besides Wisconsin? Ole Miss will finish the season losing 4 of 5 and looking awful doing it. They're not even remotely the same team from two months ago. Would Ole Miss be favored over Nebraska on a neutral field? I don't think so.
I'm not using the AP poll in the slightest. Nebraska was ranked by the committee.
I'm not using the AP poll in the slightest. Nebraska was ranked by the committee.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 10:26 am to DynastyDawg
quote:
Even if they don't though, if you go back and look at the end of the College Football regular season for the past several years, top teams have lost in the last two weeks. shite, could very well be us, but I sure hope not.
I still think your best shot is this weekend in Tuscaloosa. Those lucky sons-a-bitches always seem to pull some crazy rabit out of their asses.
What would be catastrophic would be if Auburn beats Bama, MSU makes it to the SECCG, loses to Mizzou, and no SEC team gets in.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 10:30 am to CrimsonCoast
quote:
I still think your best shot is this weekend in Tuscaloosa. Those lucky sons-a-bitches always seem to pull some crazy rabit out of their asses.
Yeah I saw something last night that claimed something along the lines of, "Alabama has never beaten a ranked Auburn team", and "Saban hasn't beaten a ranked Auburn team since 2001"
I still think Wisconsin wins, obviously, and I think it's way more likely than Auburn beating Alabama. I give Texas less than a 25% chance to beat TCU.
quote:
What would be catastrophic would be if Auburn beats Bama, MSU makes it to the SECCG, loses to Mizzou, and no SEC team gets in.
If we get in and lose the SECCG, then there will be absolutely no bitching. We will have no argument.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 10:32 am to DMagic
quote:
Did you skip where I said besides Wisconsin? Ole Miss will finish the season losing 4 of 5 and looking awful doing it. They're not even remotely the same team from two months ago. Would Ole Miss be favored over Nebraska on a neutral field? I don't think so.
I'm not using the AP poll in the slightest. Nebraska was ranked by the committee.
You are only talking number of losses as if that proves everything.
That's what I'm talking about.
That is precisely the logic of the AP poll that the committee is mainly put in place to get beyond since college teams play uneven schedules.
I'm trying to talk quality wins that are based on quality wins of opponents.
About Ole Miss v Nebraska: I don't know who would be favored but evidence has shown me one thing: Ole Miss was good enough early in the season to beat the #1 team That's also when LSU beat Ole Miss and Miss St beat LSU. That = quality win. Nebraska hasn't had anywhere near such a high point.
And that's the point. Quality wins not and who won more games against Illinois or Vanderbilt and luckily avoided an extra couple of Top25ish teams on their schedules.
Also LSU (which is who I was talking about) beat Ole Miss before injury crises.
If you want to argue that Miss St beating a reeling, injury riddled Ole Miss next week isn't as good of a win, I completely agree.
Also saying LSU has no quality wins to support them being a quality win compared to Wisconsin "besides LSU beating Wisconsin" is an odd argument to have to make.
This post was edited on 11/26/14 at 10:46 am
Posted on 11/26/14 at 10:36 am to nicholastiger
They'll get the shaft due to lack of fan support like a Ohio State caliber program.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 10:43 am to sjmabry
Miss St fans, Learn how to love TIGERS. Because Bama losing is the only way you are getting in. Even if Oregon, Fl. St lose, the committee will find a way to only have 1 team per conference in the initial CFP. Learn to love the Auburn Tigers, or perhaps the Missouri Tigers, and maybe the Georgia Bulldogs because those three teams are your only hope of getting in.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 10:47 am to nicholastiger
I don't see how they can move another team above MSU if MSU doesn't lose. Especially considering MSU spent so long at #1 - and their one loss was to the current #1 - on the road by only 5 points (with one of Alabama's TD's being very questionable). No one else below them has a better resume.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 10:54 am to EST
They most certainly will.
They have said all along conference championships carry weight. That plus a KSU win by Baylor will be all they need to spread the love around.
Not to mention, if AL goes in at #1, they will not want to see a rematch of a game already played.
MSU better house Ole Miss AND hope Baylor (or Oregon/FSU) loses or slips by KSU. Otherwise, they are out.
They have said all along conference championships carry weight. That plus a KSU win by Baylor will be all they need to spread the love around.
Not to mention, if AL goes in at #1, they will not want to see a rematch of a game already played.
MSU better house Ole Miss AND hope Baylor (or Oregon/FSU) loses or slips by KSU. Otherwise, they are out.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 10:56 am to EST
quote:
I don't see how they can move another team above MSU if MSU doesn't lose. Especially considering MSU spent so long at #1 - and their one loss was to the current #1 - on the road by only 5 points (with one of Alabama's TD's being very questionable). No one else below them has a better resume.
I can appreciate your point of view. None of us have a complete understanding of how the committee will ultimately decide on who gets in. However, I hope that after the decision is made, everyone here will gain understanding of how the process works instead of just complaining about how it is flawed.
Right now, it is a discussion of what will happen, not what "should" happen if everything is fair.
That being said: no way MSU gets in without someone losing.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:23 am to CrimsonCoast
I just want to point out that the Wisconsin team that LSU beat is not even close to the same team that is currently playing. They started a converted safety at QB against LSU, and Gordon was dinged up for much of the second half. With their QB back and Gordon 100% I am pretty sure they would have finished off LSU.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:49 am to bamaclownbaby
IF you go by what Jeff Long stated in direct response, they count the rankings of the teams when they played. That would give msu 3 wins over top 10 teams.
None of that matters. They will get a reality slap this weekend
None of that matters. They will get a reality slap this weekend
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:28 pm to nicholastiger
It's a strong possibility.
You really don't know how big the "gap" between MSU and 5/6/7 is. It could be as slim as 1 or 2 people's votes.
Also you don't know the weight that being a conference champion will have.
There is a very real possibility MSU gets leapfrogged if they don't go to the SEC title game.
In 2011 when Alabama finished #2 ahead of OSU, that last week going into the championship games Alabama's lead in the polls over OSU was quite huge. But Alabama was idle and OSU blew out Oklahoma and the gap narrowed to razor thin.
If MSU is idle championship saturday and Ohio State wins a blowout in the Big Ten championship that does not bode well for MSU.
MSU is still better off if the other contenders lose or at the very least play close games.
You really don't know how big the "gap" between MSU and 5/6/7 is. It could be as slim as 1 or 2 people's votes.
Also you don't know the weight that being a conference champion will have.
There is a very real possibility MSU gets leapfrogged if they don't go to the SEC title game.
In 2011 when Alabama finished #2 ahead of OSU, that last week going into the championship games Alabama's lead in the polls over OSU was quite huge. But Alabama was idle and OSU blew out Oklahoma and the gap narrowed to razor thin.
If MSU is idle championship saturday and Ohio State wins a blowout in the Big Ten championship that does not bode well for MSU.
MSU is still better off if the other contenders lose or at the very least play close games.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:50 pm to RealityIs
quote:
IF you go by what Jeff Long stated in direct response, they count the rankings of the teams when they played. That would give msu 3 wins over top 10 teams.
It's a good point and you're right that it's being completely ignored by so many people "adding up Top25 wins" in threads like this.
I think the main thing he means to underline is that the committee isn't being so dimwitted as to say:
"oh this week Boise St is in the Top25 so now they are a quality win but, uh, Nebraska and LSU are #26 and #27 so now they're not this week."
Also, they've said from the beginning they would consider when teams played, injuries etc in addition to cumulative impressive wins and not only losses etc etc etc. . .
That said, I still think Miss St will likely fall out due to the "conference championship" bump in the unlikely event that all the top teams win out.
This post was edited on 11/26/14 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 11/26/14 at 1:06 pm to nicholastiger
I think the committee has ranked he teams up to this point without giving any consideration to conference championships, because obviously, no team has won their conference yet...after the conference champions are established, that's when I believe they'll introduce the conference champion component to their assessments.
I think a non-conference champion will never get in as long as it's a four team playoff.
I think a non-conference champion will never get in as long as it's a four team playoff.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 1:09 pm to roscoe mike
quote:
I think a non-conference champion will never get in as long as it's a four team playoff.
I wouldn't go that far, but it would take a 2011 type season for that to happen. And no Dawgs, this isn't nearly close enough. For one, the other conference champs are likely to higher ranked.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 1:42 pm to Tiger Live2
quote:
I wouldn't go that far, but it would take a 2011 type season for that to happen.
Yeah, I think could happen this year but it's likely going to take at least Ohio St or FSU or Oregon losing. A one-loss co-Big12 winner doesn't have quite the same compelling argument over a 1 loss team from another conference that only lost to the champion so that decision would likely come down to just putting wins and losses side by side without as much weight given to being conference champion.
I do think Miss St would have the best overall profile after Alabama and Oregon if everyone wins out but I can't say I disagree with giving the nod to a conference champion from another region if the decision is really a close call just in the interest of having a diverse field to increase interest.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 1:43 pm to nicholastiger
We have been in the top 4 for every playoff committee meeting, ever. I just don't seeing them kicking us out for the one that counts.
Posted on 11/26/14 at 2:22 pm to skirpnasty
They gonna kick you out because you lose to olé miss!!
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