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re: Henry will win the Heisman. . .calling it.

Posted on 12/7/15 at 9:59 pm to
Posted by alabamabuckeye
Member since Jun 2010
22206 posts
Posted on 12/7/15 at 9:59 pm to
Return yards is a BS stat when you're comparing RBs.
Posted by Tuscaloosa
11x Award Winning SECRant user
Member since Dec 2011
46796 posts
Posted on 12/7/15 at 10:02 pm to
I think total rushing yards is more relevant than a stat in which one of the guys didn't even participate. If he wanted to list the return yards for McCaffrey, that's cool - but don't do that under the guise of trying to make comparisons while not including 2 major stats the two guys both participated in
This post was edited on 12/7/15 at 10:03 pm
Posted by Ross
Member since Oct 2007
47824 posts
Posted on 12/7/15 at 10:08 pm to
It's irrelevant when comparing them as RBs, absolutely not irrelevant when comparing them as players.
Posted by bmy
Nashville
Member since Oct 2007
48203 posts
Posted on 12/7/15 at 10:18 pm to
quote:


I think total rushing yards is more relevant than a stat in which one of the guys didn't even participate. If he wanted to list the return yards for McCaffrey, that's cool - but don't do that under the guise of trying to make comparisons while not including 2 major stats the two guys both participated in


i agree sketchy
Posted by joshreed293
Member since Sep 2015
126 posts
Posted on 12/7/15 at 10:23 pm to
mcaffery had 1 game against a top 25 defense (#11 NW). only had 89 yards and zero tds in the loss.

henry dominated in his 4 games vs top 25 defenses (#3 wisc, #6 UF, #8 uga, #25 lsu). had 159 yards and 3tds against best defense he faced. 123 touches for 706 yards and 8tds total.

Posted by NashvilleTider
Your Mom
Member since Jan 2007
11519 posts
Posted on 12/7/15 at 10:27 pm to
Well Vegas has Henry at -1200
And have McCaffrey at +500
Watson at +1500
Vegas is in the business of knowing these things. Also some books have shut down the betting because it's so lopsided
This post was edited on 12/7/15 at 10:28 pm
Posted by artompkins
Orange Beach, Al
Member since May 2010
5623 posts
Posted on 12/7/15 at 10:37 pm to
quote:

absolutely not irrelevant when comparing them as players.


You can throw out return yards and I'll throw out this; He got almost 1100 yards returning, kicks, not sure the exact amount, on 36 returns. One was for a 98 yard touchdown. That means the rest were a bunch of returns that came to about the 25 when most probably would have been touchbacks anyway. Given the fact that Stanford had a pretty piss poor D themselves and gave up 30 or more points in most games, he probably averaged 100 yards a game or so returning kicks that probably would have resulted in the same thing by downing them. Henry did better against better defenses.
Posted by ChEgrad
Member since Nov 2012
3287 posts
Posted on 12/7/15 at 10:37 pm to
The Heisman is not a running back award. It is a football player award. McCaffery's total contribution to his team was greater. He had a couple hundred fewer rushing yards (don't have the stats open right now), but he had 400+ more receiving yards and 1000 more return yards. His total contribution was greater and more important than Henry's. Bama would just plug in another guy if Henry didn't play. Stanford probably could not do that for McCaffery.
Posted by AesopsGators
Member since Feb 2009
1829 posts
Posted on 12/7/15 at 10:39 pm to
quote:

Arkansas lost to Toledo

South Carolina lost to the Citadel (and lost to Clemson, but that's not that bad)

Florida got blown out against FSU and got really lucky to escape with the W against FAU

Ole Miss got blown out against Memphis

Vanderbilt lost to Western Kentucky and got blown out against Houston

Kentucky lost to Louisville and got taken down to the wire by Eastern Kentucky

Tennessee lost to Oklahoma

Georgia had to barely escape with a W over Georgia Southern

Auburn got taken into OT at home by FCS Jacksonville State.

Missouri beat BYU in a good win for them, but otherwise they were a dumpster fire all year.



I do not believe the SEC was significantly better than the Pac 12, ACC, or Big 10, or better at all even. It was a league with flawed teams from top to bottom with one really good team in Alabama.




Absolutely correct. The SEC's best OOC wins of the season are USC over UNC (this is the single best win nothing else is close and if the game was played in November USC loses by 70+), Bama over Wisc, and.... UGA over GT? UT over BGSU? Mizzou over BYU???

Seriously it is pathetic. Top to bottom the SEC is not very good. Bama is good - I think - though honestly they have made a living this year by beating up on inferior teams in their conference. While I think they will win a game in the CFP, I am not sold that they can win both as I think both Clemson and Oklahoma match up pretty well against them. Either team would have by far the best QB they will have played this year and frankly Bama's secondary can be beat if your line can provide any protection and you are accurate (Treon missed guys who had nothing but grass within 10 yards so many times....).
Posted by artompkins
Orange Beach, Al
Member since May 2010
5623 posts
Posted on 12/7/15 at 10:45 pm to
quote:

Either team would have by far the best QB they will have played this year


Not true; Prescott, Allen and Kelly' s stats all matchup very well with all the CFP qb's and they played against better D's than the others.

quote:

Treon missed guys who had nothing but grass within 10 yards so many times


And you don't think the constant pressure he was under had anything to do with that? Missed recievers are not always from blown assignments on the D.
Posted by Irons Puppet
Birmingham
Member since Jun 2009
25901 posts
Posted on 12/7/15 at 10:51 pm to
SEC Defensive stats are skewed because SEC Offenses have sucked so bad due to QB play.
Posted by Tuscaloosa
11x Award Winning SECRant user
Member since Dec 2011
46796 posts
Posted on 12/7/15 at 10:55 pm to
quote:

but he had 400+ more receiving yards and 1000 more return yards.


How many more touchdowns did he have?

How many Top 25 defenses did he play against and what were the results?
Posted by Snout Spout
Somewhere in the 17th century
Member since Jul 2015
958 posts
Posted on 12/7/15 at 10:56 pm to


I ran the rushing S&P+ Defense numbers for teams Alabama, Clemson, Stanford, and Navy have faced. If youre unfamiliar with S&P+, it's advanced statistical analysis that adjusts for quality of opponent faced, garbage time, etc.

Average ranks: (Hint: Lower is Better!)

Alabama's opponents: 42.83
Clemson's opponents: 60.67
Stanford's opponents: 63.92
Navy's opponents: 71.27

LINK

This should make it clear Henry has faced higher quality rushing defenses than his Heisman rivals.


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