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re: Do you know why we are confident in our teams chances in the BCSNCG?
Posted on 12/16/13 at 10:12 am to brewhan davey
Posted on 12/16/13 at 10:12 am to brewhan davey
quote:
Brewhan
I hate lies.
And false stereotypes.
And ignorant braggadocio.
And all the crap a lot of SEC fans love to live by.
Listen up...
FSU is the real deal - and this board treats them like Notre Dame.
1
Posted on 12/16/13 at 10:12 am to RBWilliams8
quote:I think you have completely missed the context of my post. Go back, re read without the butthurt and come back.
RBWilliams8
quote:Is that true or not?
Sure you did... Then immediately go with "but but the rain didn't cause a muffed punt for y'all!!!"
quote:Right.
Take away the catch from UGA and you lose.
quote:You don't know that.
Take away the kick 6 and a stop or two and you lose.
quote:Right.
Take away some of your best plays from the LSU game and you're skullfricked.
quote:I didn't. Again, look at context of the comment.
you can't just take away plays that you don't like to pretend it was a different game.
quote:You aren't this dumb in real life are you. That comment was in reference to what happened after the adjustments on defense were made. Do you even context bro?
Apparently so. Being that we had more... You know, They keep score in Football.
quote:You haven't called me out on anything. you have lobbed up strawmen and attacked comments taken out of context.
Sorry it pisses you off that someone is calmly calling you out in your shite.
quote:About what? I just answered specific questions asked by another poster. If you think any of those answers were inaccurate, let's discuss them specifically and avoid the confusion and strawmen.
just made excuses
quote:I have. I even typed them myself. Can you point to any strawmen I have set up? Are you saying you didn't set any up?
You should probably read your posts in This thread...
This post was edited on 12/16/13 at 10:15 am
Posted on 12/16/13 at 10:14 am to Zamoro10
I haven't trashed FSU all year. I believe they are a very, very strong team, and until Auburn knocks them off, I will continue thinking they are the best team in football this season.
ETA: Comparing them to ND last year is just asinine.
ETA: Comparing them to ND last year is just asinine.
This post was edited on 12/16/13 at 10:15 am
Posted on 12/16/13 at 10:15 am to WDE24
Auburn will smash Ohio State. 2013 FSU has to be one of the most difficult BCSNCG opponent in recent era. Huge props to AU if they earn a victory against FSU. It could easily happen. I'd say 30-40% chance.
Posted on 12/16/13 at 10:15 am to Crompdaddy8
quote:I agree. We have to keep it close into the 4th to see how FSU and Winston respond to those situations. I like our chances if we can get to the 4th within 1 score.
Auburn will smash Ohio State. 2013 FSU has to be one of the most difficult BCSNCG opponent in recent era. Huge props to AU if they earn a victory against FSU. It could easily happen. I'd say 30-40% chance.
This post was edited on 12/16/13 at 10:18 am
Posted on 12/16/13 at 10:16 am to McTate
I agree with all of that. A team can be just a talented, but if they aren't used to stiff competition then they won't fare will against a team that is tested.
Posted on 12/16/13 at 10:17 am to JB Bama
quote:
FSU hasn't faced a running game with a pulse all season, we really have no idea what to expect out of them except "they have NFL talent at every position" (just like last year).
Yeah they didn't play a Heisman candidate with 2,100 yards or anything. You almost made a good point though.
This post was edited on 12/16/13 at 10:24 am
Posted on 12/16/13 at 10:26 am to Florida225
quote:He got over 1100 yards of those against teams that went 2-10, 3-9, 3-9, & 4-8.
Yeah they didn't play a Heisman candidate with 2,100 yards or anything. You almost made a good point though.
Posted on 12/16/13 at 10:28 am to joeyb147
quote:
He got over 1100 yards of those against teams that went 2-10, 3-9, 3-9, & 4-8.
Williams' numbers against FSU:
28 carries 149 yards 5.32 YPC
Posted on 12/16/13 at 10:38 am to Florida225
quote:
Yeah they didn't play a Heisman candidate with 2,100 yards or anything. You almost made a good point though.
He had a good game and it was FSU closest game... so what is your point... since they beat BC, they are tested?
Posted on 12/16/13 at 11:36 am to allin2010
Avello, the sports operations director who sets the lines at Wynn Las Vegas, watched Auburn beat Missouri, locking up the No. 2 spot in the BCS after Ohio State lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game, and tried to gauge the public temperature regarding the SEC champion. Just how much do people believe in Gus Malzahn's Tigers?
He made a four-point Auburn adjustment -- an uncommon swing this late in the season -- and set the Wynn's opening line Monday morning at Florida State minus-9. Immediately, Auburn money began to roll in.
Avello actually might be more generous to Auburn than other Vegas experts who either set lines or analyze them. The guys at Don Best Sports, Chief Operating Office Kenny White and analyst Todd Fuhrman, who also serves as FOX Sports 1’s Vegas insider, believe the actual divide between Florida State and Auburn is far wider than the public seems to realize.
"You would think in a game between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams, [the spread] wouldn't be that big of a gap, but this isn't the No. 1 versus No. 2,” White told me. "This is our No. 1 team versus our No. 13 team."
How is it that the SEC champion -- the "best team in the nation's best conference," as some might commonly label the winner of the SEC title -- falls so far behind other teams with seemingly inferior credentials?
Well, simply, Vegas doesn't sing the same narrative tunes that made-for-TV BCS debates do.
Instead, it's basing its evaluations on three cold realities that zoom by the emotional radar of the general fan.
1. Georgia, Alabama and the matter of luck
"Our calculations are based on performance on the field," White said. "We want to know how efficient a team is moving the football."
"My defense is they lost to Georgia and Alabama," White said.
White marks them as defeats for the power rating calculations because of the extraordinary fortunate involved.
The point, as White or Fuhrman or Avello or anyone in Vegas would note, is not to knock Auburn. It's just their jobs to discover the true talent level of teams so they can predict future performance as accurately as possible, and that process requires cutting the narrative layers that harden on top of each magnificent victory.
"In the end, winning is the name of the game, but beating Georgia took the hand of God, and beating Alabama also took some luck," Fuhrman told me. "It makes for a good story."
2. Another reason Vegas is more bullish on Florida State in the BCS championship is that it’s not being influenced by the orchestra that accompanies SEC teams on fairy-tale runs.
All of which is totally irrelevant when gauging one team against another at a neutral site. There's no powerful conference powder Auburn can take to Pasadena and sprinkle on the field before kickoff, but its league affiliation and destiny narrative are two other factors driving up Auburn’s valuation.
3. More importantly, FSU is just more talented
The Seminoles rank third in yards per pass at 10.3 and ninth in yards per rush at 5.69. Auburn ranks 18th at 8.5 and fourth at 6.46, respectively. Vegas analytic guys count this as an edge for Florida State.
On defense, they count the 'Noles as a massive favorite. FSU ranks first in yards per pass allowed at 4.9 and ninth in yards per rush allowed at 3.14. Auburn's ranking in those categories: 83rd (7.4) and 86th (4.59). Don Best considers the Tigers worse than that against the pass.
"A lot has been made about how Auburn has performed in spurts," Fuhrman said. "But if you look at the defensive metrics, they give up a substantial amount of yards."
"I’m not saying Auburn can't win," White told me. "We have them at a 23 percent chance of winning. So if they play [Florida State] four times, we think they’d win one of them."
He made a four-point Auburn adjustment -- an uncommon swing this late in the season -- and set the Wynn's opening line Monday morning at Florida State minus-9. Immediately, Auburn money began to roll in.
Avello actually might be more generous to Auburn than other Vegas experts who either set lines or analyze them. The guys at Don Best Sports, Chief Operating Office Kenny White and analyst Todd Fuhrman, who also serves as FOX Sports 1’s Vegas insider, believe the actual divide between Florida State and Auburn is far wider than the public seems to realize.
"You would think in a game between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams, [the spread] wouldn't be that big of a gap, but this isn't the No. 1 versus No. 2,” White told me. "This is our No. 1 team versus our No. 13 team."
How is it that the SEC champion -- the "best team in the nation's best conference," as some might commonly label the winner of the SEC title -- falls so far behind other teams with seemingly inferior credentials?
Well, simply, Vegas doesn't sing the same narrative tunes that made-for-TV BCS debates do.
Instead, it's basing its evaluations on three cold realities that zoom by the emotional radar of the general fan.
1. Georgia, Alabama and the matter of luck
"Our calculations are based on performance on the field," White said. "We want to know how efficient a team is moving the football."
"My defense is they lost to Georgia and Alabama," White said.
White marks them as defeats for the power rating calculations because of the extraordinary fortunate involved.
The point, as White or Fuhrman or Avello or anyone in Vegas would note, is not to knock Auburn. It's just their jobs to discover the true talent level of teams so they can predict future performance as accurately as possible, and that process requires cutting the narrative layers that harden on top of each magnificent victory.
"In the end, winning is the name of the game, but beating Georgia took the hand of God, and beating Alabama also took some luck," Fuhrman told me. "It makes for a good story."
2. Another reason Vegas is more bullish on Florida State in the BCS championship is that it’s not being influenced by the orchestra that accompanies SEC teams on fairy-tale runs.
All of which is totally irrelevant when gauging one team against another at a neutral site. There's no powerful conference powder Auburn can take to Pasadena and sprinkle on the field before kickoff, but its league affiliation and destiny narrative are two other factors driving up Auburn’s valuation.
3. More importantly, FSU is just more talented
The Seminoles rank third in yards per pass at 10.3 and ninth in yards per rush at 5.69. Auburn ranks 18th at 8.5 and fourth at 6.46, respectively. Vegas analytic guys count this as an edge for Florida State.
On defense, they count the 'Noles as a massive favorite. FSU ranks first in yards per pass allowed at 4.9 and ninth in yards per rush allowed at 3.14. Auburn's ranking in those categories: 83rd (7.4) and 86th (4.59). Don Best considers the Tigers worse than that against the pass.
"A lot has been made about how Auburn has performed in spurts," Fuhrman said. "But if you look at the defensive metrics, they give up a substantial amount of yards."
"I’m not saying Auburn can't win," White told me. "We have them at a 23 percent chance of winning. So if they play [Florida State] four times, we think they’d win one of them."
Posted on 12/16/13 at 11:54 am to joeyb147
quote:
He got over 1100 yards of those against teams that went 2-10, 3-9, 3-9, & 4-8.
So discounting stats in a handful of football games because they play (along with every BCS conference team) inferior opponents thoughout the year now?
Take away Tre Masons stout games against Florida Atlantic, Western Carolina, Arkansas State and Washington State. What do you get? The same exact argument.
You can say whatever you want Auburn fans, the only questions you have to ask yourself is, Will this horrendous Auburn defense be able to stop FSUs offense? Will FSU's decent defense be able to stop Auburns offense?
Posted on 12/16/13 at 12:05 pm to Florida225
quote:
Will this horrendous Auburn defense be able to stop FSUs offense? Will FSU's decent defense be able to stop Auburns offense?
The former? No.
The latter? If FSU can hold Auburn to a Bama like score...(and most people believe they can) under 30 points - take away the last second miracle score.
Sizeable edge - FSU
Posted on 12/16/13 at 12:07 pm to Zamoro10
If Auburn can beat Bama, luck not withstanding, they can sure beat Bama-lite. 
Posted on 12/16/13 at 12:10 pm to Florida225
quote:Uhhh, no you don't.
Take away Tre Masons stout games against Florida Atlantic, Western Carolina, Arkansas State and Washington State. What do you get? The same exact argument.
Williams got 52% of his yards in 4 games against teams that averaged 9 losses.
You want to look at Mason's numbers now? Okay, if you look at those 4 games (Western Carolina being the only team with a losing record of the 4), it totals 332 yards (averaged 11 carries in those 4 games with a 7.4 ypc average). So Mason got 20% of his yards in those 4 games.
You want to try a new argument based on facts?
This post was edited on 12/16/13 at 12:11 pm
Posted on 12/16/13 at 12:12 pm to Florida225
quote:
Take away Tre Masons stout games against Florida Atlantic, Western Carolina, Arkansas State and Washington State. What do you get? The same exact argument.
Tre Mason only rushed 332 in those games combined, so take away those stats and his per game ups to 143 compared to 124
Posted on 12/16/13 at 12:12 pm to Tridentds
quote:
NOT the same offensive juggernaut then as it was in late November and December. Auburn plays LSU at end of season in Baton Rouge they win by 10+. Every year someone gets hot at the end of the year and no one wants to play them... this year it is Auburn. Auburn beats Free Shoes.
Y'all said the same thing last year when LSU tea bagged JFF
where did it get you? Third in the west and once again a bitch of LSU"s spread killer. Thats why auburn will never succeed as much as bama at least for now while AU has a DB as QB.
Posted on 12/16/13 at 12:12 pm to JuiceTerry
quote:
If Auburn can beat Bama, luck not withstanding, they can sure beat Bama-lite.
Of course Auburn can win.
But - is Iron Bowl II going to happen, again?
(And maybe you are - FSU-lite) - did you ever think about that?
Posted on 12/16/13 at 12:12 pm to Zamoro10
quote:
"I’m not saying Auburn can't win," White told me. "We have them at a 23 percent chance of winning. So if they play [Florida State] four times, we think they’d win one of them."
I knew I was being generous by saying 30 percent chance.
I really hope Auburn wins though. 13 years ago, I bet a FSU alum $100 that Oklahoma would win another title before FSU did. I had been an Oklahoma fan since I was a kid (born there) but after LSU played them for the natty in 2004 I threw that fanhood under the bus. But that $100 bet has been hanging out there for 13 years. I'm pretty sure I'll have to pay up very soon. Even if Auburn eeks out a win, as long as Jimbo stays at FSU they'll eventually bring home the crystal.
Posted on 12/16/13 at 12:13 pm to Luke
Because even if you're losing on the last play you guys will find some obscure rule/play to score 37 points on a single down since that's just how lucky your team is
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