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Chris Low new article: Auditing the SEC's talent producers
Posted on 5/3/12 at 7:46 am
Posted on 5/3/12 at 7:46 am
Low takes a look at each SEC team's performance over the last 3 years in relation to the number of draft choices they have produced. Sorry if Germans. I searched "Chris Low", "Auditing", and "SEC's talent"
Just a couple of observations from this list... Auburn appears to have vastly out-performed their talent level. 2010 certainly helped in boosting that W/L percentage. I'm not sure what that year would have been like without Cam Newton. The team was certainly not full of NFL talent as you'd come to expect an undefeated SEC team to be.
Georgia has vastly underperformed over the last 3 years. I don't think there's much to add to that. There's NO WAY they should be 14-10 in the SEC over the last 3 years.
LINK
quote:
Alabama: 36-4, 20-4 SEC, 20 draft choices, 10 first-rounders, 14 in top three rounds
Georgia: 24-16, 14-10 SEC, 18 draft choices, 1 first-rounder, 5 in the top three rounds
LSU: 33-7, 19-5 SEC, 17 draft choices, 3 first-rounders, 11 in top three rounds
Florida: 28-12, 15-9 SEC, 15 draft choices, 4 first-rounders, 9 in the top three rounds
South Carolina: 27-13, 14-10, 10 draft choices, 2 first-rounders, 4 in top three rounds
Mississippi State: 21-17, 9-15 SEC, 9 draft choices, 2 first-rounders, 3 in top three rounds
Tennessee: 18-20, 8-16, 9 draft choices, 2 first-rounders, 3 in top three rounds
Arkansas: 29-10, 15-9 SEC, 8 draft choices, 0 first-rounders, 2 in top three rounds.
Auburn: 30-10, 15-9 SEC, 7 draft choices, 2 first-rounders, 3 in top three rounds.
Kentucky: 18-20, 7-17 SEC, 6 draft choices, 0 first-rounders, 2 in top three rounds
Ole Miss: 15-22, 5-19 SEC, 6 draft choices, 0 first-rounders, 2 in top three rounds
Vanderbilt: 10-27, 3-21 SEC, 4 draft choices, 0 first-rounders, 2 in top three rounds
Just a couple of observations from this list... Auburn appears to have vastly out-performed their talent level. 2010 certainly helped in boosting that W/L percentage. I'm not sure what that year would have been like without Cam Newton. The team was certainly not full of NFL talent as you'd come to expect an undefeated SEC team to be.
Georgia has vastly underperformed over the last 3 years. I don't think there's much to add to that. There's NO WAY they should be 14-10 in the SEC over the last 3 years.
LINK
This post was edited on 5/3/12 at 8:23 am
8
Posted on 5/3/12 at 7:51 am to Tuscaloosa
quote:
I searched "Chris Low", "Auditing", and "SEC's talent"
Awesome. I wish more people would actually post what they claim to search instead of just saying "I searched." or "The search sucks."
Posted on 5/3/12 at 7:54 am to Tuscaloosa
quote:
Auburn: 30-10, 15-9 SEC, 7 draft choices, 2 first-rounders, 3 in top three rounds.
Doing more with less for quite some time now
Posted on 5/3/12 at 7:57 am to Tuscaloosa
quote:
Georgia: 24-16, 14-10 SEC, 18 draft choices, 1 first-rounder, 5 in the top three rounds
I
IRL
Posted on 5/3/12 at 7:58 am to Tuscaloosa
quote:FIFY
just a couple of observations from this list... Auburn HAS vastly out-performed their talent level.
The ONLY explanation is coaching. In all three years that Chizik has been at Auburn we have exceeded preseason expectations and won our bowl game. Now the next two years we will be vastly more talented (based on recruiting rankings)so it will be interesting.
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:00 am to HVAU
So Tubs phoning it in wasn't just some lame excuse after all?
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:03 am to allin2010
quote:
The ONLY explanation is coaching.
I don't agree with that. The reason I said "appears" is that I'm not sold on that idea, because if you take away the championship run, they've been right on par with the level of talent they're producing. They outperformed their talent level one year. The rest look to be pretty normal.
That's not a knock on Auburn, just an opinion.
Would Auburn have won even 10 games in 2010 without Cam Newton? I have my doubts. Thankfully for Auburn fans, and unfortunately for the rest of the SEC, we'll never find out
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:06 am to Tuscaloosa
So Miles is on par with Saban with less talent
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:09 am to nicholastiger
quote:
So Saban is a better talent evaluator, recruiter, and player developer than Miles
FIFY
ETA: I'm being sarcastic, but if that's what you got out of those numbers, then I roll my eyes in your general direction. Let it go.
This post was edited on 5/3/12 at 8:10 am
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:23 am to Tuscaloosa
Edited OP to add link to article.
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:32 am to Tuscaloosa
quote:
Georgia has vastly underperformed over the last 3 years. I don't think there's much to add to that.
I can add to it.
For starters, it's not like we had 15 first rounders, look at the numbers again. 1 first rounder, and only 5 in the top 3 rounds. That could be 4 3rd rounderss, big deal. And the 18 overall draft picks doesn't matter much, because is a 6th or 7th round draft pick really a strong correllation to our win total?
But moving on....last year was about what we expected, 10-2 regular season, won the east, good year. The year prior, it was the first year with a brand new DC and a brand new 3-4 scheme. Also don't forget that that 1 first rounder (AJ) was suspended for 4 games in 2010, and I'm damn near certain he would've helped us win at least 1 of those.
Those numbers don't look great, and they aren't..but 2010 was a serious outlier. If you took this same data from 2011, 12, and 13 when we have multiple first rounders and a much better record it will be more in line with what should be expected.
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:38 am to Tuscaloosa
quote:
Would Auburn have won even 10 games in 2010 without Cam Newton? I have my doubts. Thankfully for Auburn fans, and unfortunately for the rest of the SEC, we'll never find out
A friend and I were discussing this recently. We came to the conclusion that any 2010 West team, besides Ole Miss, would have won the SEC with Cam. What says the rant?
PS Not a flame, Auburn was incredible and deserved the Natty with that team. Best college football player I have ever seen
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:38 am to Tuscaloosa
quote:
Would Auburn have won even 10 games in 2010 without Cam Newton? I have my doubts. Thankfully for Auburn fans, and unfortunately for the rest of the SEC, we'll never find out
I love how this only work for Auburn.
take off the best player on any team and they dont do as well...shocking I know.
Looks like Bama, UF, and UGA cant seem to win a NT without a Heisman candidate either...but only Au gets that albatross around its neck.
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:39 am to WG_Dawg
Fair enough.
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:40 am to Tuscaloosa
quote:
Alabama: 36-4, 20-4 SEC, 20 draft choices, 10 first-rounders, 14 in top three rounds
Georgia: 24-16, 14-10 SEC, 18 draft choices, 1 first-rounder, 5 in the top three rounds
LSU: 33-7, 19-5 SEC, 17 draft choices, 3 first-rounders, 11 in top three rounds
yet Georgia gets curb stomped by both LSU and Bama.
What gives?
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:41 am to TheCaterpillar
also, he needs to go 1 or 2 years further back to have a more accurate picture. It should be at least 4 years because thats how long a college career usually is.
This post was edited on 5/3/12 at 8:42 am
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:43 am to parkjas2001
Can`t argue with stupid. Bammers have trouble coping... There train of thought goes...Cam sucked when he was at Auburn but now hes gone...we would of been .500 without him.
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:46 am to wardamnamerica
quote:
we would of been .500 without him.
I think that's possible. Auburn won SEVEN games in 2010 by one touchdown or less. What other QB on Auburn's roster could have put up enough points to win those close games?
It's not like Auburn was just blowing through everyone and brushing their shoulders off as they went. But yeah. We're stupid.
This post was edited on 5/3/12 at 8:47 am
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:47 am to Tuscaloosa
Nobody is arguing the impact of our best player. Its just funny that it only happens to Auburn. If you take the best player from other teams, they do just fine.
Posted on 5/3/12 at 8:50 am to parkjas2001
quote:
Its just funny that it only happens to Auburn. If you take the best player from other teams, they do just fine.
I think the reason it happens is due to the number of close games that Auburn won that could have gone the other way. How many other teams have won so many games in the same fashion Auburn did in 2010? Seasons like that is what keeps me convinced that fate exists.
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