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re: Betting Trends- 73% of betting public taking State +24
Posted on 10/25/12 at 10:55 am to deltaland
Posted on 10/25/12 at 10:55 am to deltaland
What you State fans don't understand is that vegas knows exactly what they are doing. So you not comprehending why the line is +24 isn't all that shocking to everyone else.
1
Posted on 10/25/12 at 10:57 am to CoonassBulldog
Is this a State thing? Not letting the opponent cover a spread is almost as good as a victory?
Posted on 10/25/12 at 11:01 am to bona fide
Yes, go lay down a mil and see how much it moves. How many times have you ever seen a spread move over 5 points?
Posted on 10/25/12 at 11:15 am to Roll Damn Tide
quote:
What you State fans don't understand is that vegas knows exactly what they are doing. So you not comprehending why the line is +24 isn't all that shocking to everyone else.
Why don't you explain it to us then...
Posted on 10/25/12 at 11:30 am to engie
You explain to me why Vegas would make that the line. We can play a little game of Scores and points. State beat UT by 10 at home, Bama beats them by 31 on the road. 21 point swing give Bama 3 for being at Home. DYSWIDT? not saying its the case but there is a reason they think Bama is a 24 fav , because they are!
Posted on 10/25/12 at 11:35 am to Roll Damn Tide
They made Bammer a 24 pt favorite because the betting public overvalues Bammer at home. That's why Bammer is 1-5 in their last 6 home games against the Spread. They can put a big ridiculous number up and still get dumbasses to bet on Bammer
This post was edited on 10/25/12 at 11:36 am
Posted on 10/25/12 at 11:44 am to CoonassBulldog
Then why is the betting public on State?
Posted on 10/25/12 at 12:01 pm to bamafan425
These people don't realize. Everyone comparing the lines of the Arky, Mizzou, or UT games to this are delusional. All of those games were on the road. That, in itself, makes up for a 6-14 point swing right there.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 12:05 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
These people don't realize. Everyone comparing the lines of the Arky, Mizzou, or UT games to this are delusional. All of those games were on the road. That, in itself, makes up for a 6-14 point swing right there.
Try 3.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 12:07 pm to Roll Damn Tide
quote:
You explain to me why Vegas would make that the line. We can play a little game of Scores and points. State beat UT by 10 at home, Bama beats them by 31 on the road. 21 point swing give Bama 3 for being at Home. DYSWIDT? not saying its the case but there is a reason they think Bama is a 24 fav , because they are!
We have been over this already, the line isn't set on what Vegas thinks will happen. It is set on what Vegas thinks the mean bet will be.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 12:09 pm to pankReb
86% taking A&M is fricking hilarious. That opening line was the most nonsensical of the season.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 12:22 pm to skirpnasty
Try you're wrong!
Posted on 10/25/12 at 12:23 pm to pankReb
quote:
It's funny watching idiots think they understand Vegas
Posted on 10/25/12 at 12:27 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
Try you're wrong!
No, the line gives an automatic -3 to the home team. It's pretty common knowledge.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 12:28 pm to skirpnasty
quote:
The more it moves the more money it takes to move it.
I responded to the above quote
and you replied with..
quote:
go lay down a mil and see how much it moves. How many times have you ever seen a spread move over 5 points?
the fact that lines seldom move in one direction by five or more points, does not prove your point that it takes more money to move the line as it moves. Excluding outlier factors and considering the line is moving on normal variables, the exact opposite is normally the case.
For example... Vegas puts out a "bad line on Sunday of Troy -15, the sharps immediately pound the good side and the line starts to move quickly.
The faster it moves the less amount of money is needed to move the line further. Vegas will be adjusting quickly to counter, therefore requiring less and less of bet$ to get the line adjusted ASAP.
Tons of other variables are involved... certain numbers(3,6,7,10,13,14) are more difficult to move to/from so that is always another consideration.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 12:30 pm to skirpnasty
It's anywhere from 3-7 ... so if it was-20 @ Arky... would make it -26 @ Bama...
Posted on 10/25/12 at 12:51 pm to CoonassBulldog
quote:
They made Bammer a 24 pt favorite because the betting public overvalues Bammer at home. That's why Bammer is 1-5 in their last 6 home games against the Spread. They can put a big ridiculous number up and still get dumbasses to bet on Bammer
But I thought you said 73% of the "betting public" was taking State
Posted on 10/25/12 at 12:54 pm to BrocraticMethod
he doesn't know what he says.......ever.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 1:05 pm to bamafan425
So why don't the "sharp" bettors wait for 75% of the public to bet State and take it after the line goes down?
Posted on 10/25/12 at 1:37 pm to skirpnasty
quote:
We have been over this already, the line isn't set on what Vegas thinks will happen
You might want to do a little research on just how close Vegas is at hitting the set numbers. It is amazing how close they usually are % wise.
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