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re: Betting Trends- 73% of betting public taking State +24
Posted on 10/25/12 at 8:10 am to bamafan425
Posted on 10/25/12 at 8:10 am to bamafan425
quote:
Hahahaha. Momma won't let me use my Taco Bell money except to fix up the trailer.
0
Posted on 10/25/12 at 8:12 am to King Crimson
quote:
That is correct. 73% of the betting public doesn't mean 73% of the money. What that tells me is that the 27% who are betting on Bama to cover are betting big, probably professional gamblers, commonly referred to as "sharps". One thing is for sure. If the line isn't moving then equal money is coming in on both teams, which is exactly what bookies want.
Sharps don't make up enough of the money for that to be the case. The line also doesn't move linearly, it can't start at 26 and move to 3, it is on an exponential scale. The more it moves the more money it takes to move it.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 8:15 am to skirpnasty
Here's my honest thoughts. I think that the line is inflated to protect themselves. I think it should be around 17-21. But I think Vegas would rather take a chance on Mississippi State covering just north of three scores then Bama covering three scores or under at home.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 8:22 am to skirpnasty
quote:
The line also doesn't move linearly, it can't start at 26 and move to 3, it is on an exponential scale. The more it moves the more money it takes to move it.
After the initial line is posted, which is somewhat arbitrary, line movement is always based on the amount of money coming in on each team. If it gets a percentage point or two off even money, then the line moves (usually in 1/2 point increments) to compensate for this imbalance. For instance, if the line on MSU/Bama moves to 23.5, that means more money is coming in on MSU than Bama. The reverse is true if it moves to 24.5. It has nothing to do with the percentage of people betting on one team or another.
This post was edited on 10/25/12 at 8:25 am
Posted on 10/25/12 at 8:30 am to King Crimson
quote:
After the initial line is posted, which is somewhat arbitrary, line movement is always based on the amount of money coming in on each team. If it gets a percentage point or two off even money, then the line moves (usually in 1/2 point increments) to compensate for this imbalance. For instance, if the line on MSU/Bama moves to 23.5, that means more money is coming in on MSU than Bama. The reverse is true if it moves to 24.5. It has nothing to do with the percentage of people betting on one team or another.
Yes I was implying that. It also doesn't move at a constant rate though. A line will never move over a few points, as I said the more it moves the more difficult it is to move it.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 8:33 am to CoonassBulldog
You're new to this whole betting thing, spreads and Vegas arent you.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 8:37 am to Slippery Slope
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Can one of you super geniuses tell me how much money I would win if I put 1000 dollars on the dogs to win?
At the current moneyline you would win $14,000.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 8:40 am to CoonassBulldog
I just don't see what Mullen can come up with to keep from consistently going 3 and out on offense or what their DC can come up with to stop a QB who is Heisman like right now, a punishing running game, and a sudden star WR in Cooper. I think will have to be bad weather for Bama not to cover the line. 35-6 Tide!
Posted on 10/25/12 at 8:47 am to augrad00
I think the line will drop a point or two on game day. I say this because the typical weekend bettor, who likes to gamble for entertainment purposes, will take a look at this game on Saturday and see a 7-0 football team that is a 3 1/2 TD underdog. Without really looking into, or understanding the dynamics of these two teams they will put money on MSU. This will cause the line to go down a little on Saturday.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 8:53 am to augrad00
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I just don't see what Mullen can come up with to keep from consistently going 3 and out on offense or what their DC can come up with to stop a QB who is Heisman like right now, a punishing running game, and a sudden star WR in Cooper. I think will have to be bad weather for Bama not to cover the line. 35-6 Tide!
Our QB has equivalent numbers and we have the leading rusher in the SEC. Banks can cover Cooper, granted that kid is very good, and it's hard to shut down an offense as balanced as ours. It will be closer than most think. If the offense does get shut down you will see us throw the kitchen sink at them and run the speed option with Dak. If Bama puts up the points they have been all year I will be very disappointed in our DC and Wilson doesn't disappoint, I have never seen this defense give up a lot of points unless we were leading. It will be harder for them to prepare for everything we bring to the table than the other way around, execution is what gets you beat against Bama not the scheme.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 9:03 am to skirpnasty
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It will be harder for them to prepare for everything we bring to the table than the other way around
I don't even like the Tide but I've heard this statement so many times only to see if end up with that team unable to move the ball against them. Your QB stats might be equivalent but unless your defense is as stout as theirs, your QB is going to have a very tough time duplicating his season stats in this one. Bama will be locked in this week because this is the biggest game of the weekend in primetime at home. I hope you are right though, I hope State destroys the Tide.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 9:07 am to CoonassBulldog
quote:
Easiest money since I took LSU to pummel State in the opening game of 2007
Easiest money this year was bama against Michigan.
Would like to see both teams play well to see how good they really are.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 9:08 am to augrad00
quote:
I don't even like the Tide but I've heard this statement so many times only to see if end up with that team unable to move the ball against them. Your QB stats might be equivalent but unless your defense is as stout as theirs, your QB is going to have a very tough time duplicating his season stats in this one. Bama will be locked in this week because this is the biggest game of the weekend in primetime at home. I hope you are right though, I hope State destroys the Tide.
It's interesting because as I said it isn't like you don't know what they are going to do. You know exactly what is coming but they make their living off of playing sound football and punishing your mistakes. The key to playing a Saban team is playing picture perfect football. Obviously it's easier said than done and that's why they win games.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 9:16 am to Al Bundy Bulldog
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No they aren't. They are in the Sun Belt.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 9:28 am to skirpnasty
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The more it moves the more money it takes to move it.
no
Posted on 10/25/12 at 10:06 am to bona fide
I'm loving the MSU fans in this thread. They are really proving my theory that they only really discovered internet 3 years ago.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 10:09 am to darkhorse
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Lol... The line for ark was 20 without a Wilson at qb and we are 24 line
Well that ARK line was WAY off. Vegas takes lessons very well.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 10:09 am to pankReb
Moral Victory for State at +24.
Posted on 10/25/12 at 10:11 am to CoonassBulldog
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I already have- put 750 on it yesterday
I don't bet on bama because if they play flat they win by 20 and if they bring their A game they win by 40. This could be a 31-10 type game or a 45-7 type game and I wouldn't be shocked either way
Posted on 10/25/12 at 10:49 am to bamafan425
quote:
Missouri -21
Tennessee -20
Not sure how they justify these lines and putting state at +24. We have proven we are better than Tennessee and are obviously much better than Missouri.
The spread on this game blows my mind
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