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re: Bama and 5* Recruits
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:36 am to NYCAuburn
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:36 am to NYCAuburn
You create the results you want, why don't you present all three stats and let the people decide which one makes them feel better about their program.
You are right, had they not gone to Alabama, they would not have gotten kicked out of Alabama in the same fashion. However, they did go to Alabama, and through their own decisions and actions they got kicked off the football team. Thus they should not be counted for that sort of stat. No team should count them. You present me the three stats and that is the one I will look at.
We have a fundamental disagreement in which stat we view is important. Lets just leave it at that.
You are right, had they not gone to Alabama, they would not have gotten kicked out of Alabama in the same fashion. However, they did go to Alabama, and through their own decisions and actions they got kicked off the football team. Thus they should not be counted for that sort of stat. No team should count them. You present me the three stats and that is the one I will look at.
We have a fundamental disagreement in which stat we view is important. Lets just leave it at that.
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Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:37 am to Tuscaloosa
quote:shite like that makes Saban's recruiting job a piece of cake.
"Every single recruiting class I've signed since 2000 has finished with at least one national championship before they graduated."
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:38 am to NYCAuburn
quote:
The thing about statistics is when you add more and more disclaimers, is you are creating your results, instead of actually getting information from the results
But you have to add disclaimers to statistics. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of statistics if you think they're applied universally, regardless of the intent, without strict delineations of what is being discussed. In this case, the intent is to show the ability of a program to develop talent, not show that a program is responsible for all life choices made by a given player.
All statistical models have parameters involved. That's the nature of statistics. If you want to make the parameters broad enough, you can prove almost anything. I can argue that Auburn players are all serial killers*
*In my imagination
And that's statistically true. In my imagination, all Auburn players are serial killers. It's only one parameter. You can add "Auburn players that actually exist, and have interacted with a broad range of people (thus establishing they're not limited to one person's imagination) and have actually attended Auburn on scholarship and..." and I'd bemoan all these extra parameters you're tacking on. And I'd be completely untrue to a premise that "Auburn players aren't serial killers" despite have the fewest parameters of anyone discussing the topic.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:39 am to NYCAuburn
quote:
But the statement is if you are a five star and sign with bama you will get drafted in the first round. unless you are not top 15 5 star, unless you get kicked out of the program, unless you got arrested, unless you quit on the team, unless... unless..., unless...
That's not the media statement, that was the OP's incorrect statement. The media statement was "Top 15" recruit, not "5* recruit".
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:39 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
There was some study a year or so ago that showed Bama had about the worst percentage of four and five star guys make it to the nfl of any sec school.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:42 am to stat19
I'm more focused on the part where all these really good players help us win a boat load of games
I mean, as a college football fan that's what is important to me
I mean, as a college football fan that's what is important to me
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:44 am to Wallacewade04
quote:
I'm more focused on the part where all these really good players help us win a boat load of games
I mean, as a college football fan that's what is important to me
Well, since the selling point of the statistic is to attract more good players, it's not irrelevant to your particular focus.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:49 am to ZereauxSum
quote:Folks/rival fans can throw shite against the wall all day to try to make it stick to Nick Saban. Bottom line, what the man does is impressive.
Any way you slice it, what Saban has done is pretty damned impressive. The sample size is good enough to prove that.
True he's a jackass, but he's our jackass.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:53 am to CheeseburgerEddie
quote:
Thus they should not be counted for that sort of stat.
because it wont show what you want it to show. that is the problem. you are skewing the stat in your favor. How do you know they wouldnt have become a first rounder at another program? Their selection of school led them to be kicked out and not make it into the positive side of the stat.Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:54 am to stat19
Top 15 players since 2008:
247 sports (composite ranking):
Julio Jones (#3) - 1st Round, 6th pick
Trent Richardson (#6) - 1st Round, 3rd Pick
Dre Kirkpatrick (#13) - 1st Round, 17th pick
Dee Milliner (#14) - 1st Round, 9th pick
**Class of 2011 - declared for upcoming draft)
Cyrus Kouandjio (#2) - Pending
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (#7) - Pending
**Class of 2012**
Landon Collins (#7)
**Class of 2013**
Reuben Foster (#6)
Derrick Henry (#12)
**Class of 2014**
Cameron Robinson (#4)
Tony Brown (#9)
De'Shawn Hand (#5)
Marlon Humphrey (#12)
Rashaan Evans (#15)
Bo Scarbrough just missed the cut at #16
CBS mock draft has both Cyrus and Ha Ha going in the first round:
LINK
Ha Ha 15th to the Steelers or 23rd to the Chiefs, with Cyrus going 19th to the Dolphins or 26th to the Browns.
247 sports (composite ranking):
Julio Jones (#3) - 1st Round, 6th pick
Trent Richardson (#6) - 1st Round, 3rd Pick
Dre Kirkpatrick (#13) - 1st Round, 17th pick
Dee Milliner (#14) - 1st Round, 9th pick
**Class of 2011 - declared for upcoming draft)
Cyrus Kouandjio (#2) - Pending
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (#7) - Pending
**Class of 2012**
Landon Collins (#7)
**Class of 2013**
Reuben Foster (#6)
Derrick Henry (#12)
**Class of 2014**
Cameron Robinson (#4)
Tony Brown (#9)
De'Shawn Hand (#5)
Marlon Humphrey (#12)
Rashaan Evans (#15)
Bo Scarbrough just missed the cut at #16
CBS mock draft has both Cyrus and Ha Ha going in the first round:
LINK
Ha Ha 15th to the Steelers or 23rd to the Chiefs, with Cyrus going 19th to the Dolphins or 26th to the Browns.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 10:01 am to Hugo Stiglitz
quote:
I wonder what % of five stars are 1st round draft picks.
Likely a higher percent than non-five stars. It's not that there aren't 5 star busts, obviously there are, but these guys are highly ranked for good reasons. Some fans like to talk about the 2 and 3 stars who become top athletes in college and the pros but these are the rare exceptions rather than the rule. There is a reason why Bama has won 3 out of the last 5 NC's: they consistently have top 5 recruiting classes which in include far more than than their share of 5 star players.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 10:02 am to randomways
quote:
But you have to add disclaimers to statistics.
No you dont, when you continue to add them, it skews the results to a favor of what you want them to be. Thats why many peoples stats are so misleading, because they skew the results with disclaimers to fit the argument they are trying to present
quote:
All statistical models have parameters involved
correct, but when you pick and choose which parameters from the basic set, you are manipulating the results in the way you want them to look.
quote:
If you want to make the parameters broad enough, you can prove almost anything. I can argue that Auburn players are all serial killers*
not really, but Id like to see you try. However if you add more and more disclaimers you can prove your arguments. for instance "in my imagination" you did not broaden the parameters and in fact narrowed them quite a bit
Posted on 2/6/14 at 10:04 am to NYCAuburn
Yeah...you're not quite getting how statistics work. Thanks for the discussion but I don't think it's going to go anywhere productive under the circumstances.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 10:07 am to randomways
quote:
Yeah...you're not quite getting how statistics work.
Yeah, I think you are having the trouble here. Do You not see in your last statement in where you were attempting to say you broadened the parameters, when in fact you narrowed them quite significantly?
Posted on 2/6/14 at 10:08 am to NYCAuburn
quote:
you are skewing the stat in your favor
Just as you are, I actually said lets look at all three stats.
quote:
Their selection of school led them to be kicked out
Precluded, did not necessarily lead. I stubbed my toe getting out of bed, then I found 5 dollars. Should I always stub my toe in order to find 5 dollars every morning?
quote:
How do you know they wouldnt have become a first rounder at another program
How do you know they would have?
You are playing these runaround games, I don't think you actually believe it either. Just look at all three stats and you can state whichever one is most important to you. And everyone else can form their own opinions. It seems most people are of the opinion that the truncated data set is a more applicable determination of a coach/programs ability to develop players. If you want to discuss ability to keep players out of off the field trouble, that is a different discussion.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 10:15 am to NYCAuburn
Despite the initial use of "broaden" without additional clarifications, I think it was pretty obvious from the rest of the discussion that I wasn't talking scope, I was talking quantitative restrictions. One parameter is extremely "broad" compared to a dozen parameters, each restricting the subject further and further. Your fundamental misunderstanding is that statistical models somehow become less meaningful/applicable with additional parameter sets to clarify exactly what the models are intended to prove. This should, upon reflection, be common sense, really.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 10:18 am to CheeseburgerEddie
NYCAuburn in over his head.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 10:21 am to BamaDoc14
quote:
NYCAuburn in over his head.
I don't understand what he is saying is being skewed. The statement was simple. Top 15 recruits that were draft eligible.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 10:27 am to CheeseburgerEddie
quote:
Just as you are,
How is it skewing the stat, when you include the entire base? I have not left anything off
quote:
Precluded, did not necessarily lead.
The school itself did not create the situation, however the choice put you in the situation and had you not been put in the situation it might not have occurred.
quote:
How do you know they would have?
They might not have, but you shouldnt exclude them because they dont fit the argument you trying to create
quote:
You are playing these runaround games,
Actually it quite comical the projection some of you bama fans have placed upon me in this thread.
quote:
Just look at all three stats and you can state whichever one is most important to you
This is exaclty whats wrong with what I am saying. you are picking and choosing which works best for you by removing the bad rather than looking at the entire scope
Posted on 2/6/14 at 10:29 am to StopRobot
quote:
NYCAuburn in over his head.
quote:Some folks will go out of their way to skew shite to make Nick Saban and Alabama football look bad.
I don't understand what he is saying is being skewed. The statement was simple. Top 15 recruits that were draft eligible.
Fact: Alabama has won 3 of the last 5 BCS Championships......
"Well their the biggest cheaters in the country,[T'town Menswear/Hot Wheelz/Chargers/suits/books], they are media darlings, they have a weakass cupcake schedule, they got a mulligan, they backed into the game, etc. etc. etc."
The Fact remains: Alabama has won 3 of the last BCS Championships.......
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