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re: Auburn will finish 6th or 7th in the West
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:50 pm to AgsNguyening
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:50 pm to AgsNguyening
Your statistical analysis is pretty terrible.
1
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:51 pm to AgsNguyening
I agree.
1)LSU
2-6) Some other teams
7)Auburn
Love,
Todd McShay
1)LSU
2-6) Some other teams
7)Auburn
Love,
Todd McShay
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:53 pm to joeyb147
quote:
Your statistical analysis is pretty terrible.
How so? Is there some huge statistic that I am missing that you wish to share or are you just pissed off?
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:54 pm to AgsNguyening
you're dumb enough to be an updyke fan
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:03 pm to AgsNguyening
You talk about offensive numbers yet include defensive and special teams scores.
You include powder puff non-conference games in those numbers as if it matters if you drop 70 on whatever directional school you play or if you only drop 40 on them. Turnover margin included in this as well.
You look at turnover margin yet failed to look at punts forced or opponents 4th down percentage for opportunities for the offense to get the ball back.
It's an all-around terrible analysis that misses a lot of variables to the game.
Here you go, I'll copy what I already posted since you were too lazy to read it.
You include powder puff non-conference games in those numbers as if it matters if you drop 70 on whatever directional school you play or if you only drop 40 on them. Turnover margin included in this as well.
You look at turnover margin yet failed to look at punts forced or opponents 4th down percentage for opportunities for the offense to get the ball back.
It's an all-around terrible analysis that misses a lot of variables to the game.
Here you go, I'll copy what I already posted since you were too lazy to read it.
quote:
Now you conveniently look at turnovers (and make up some crazy stat about it) yet failed to look at the number of punts forced by the defense. Consider this, Auburn forced 76 punts in 2013 and just 59 in 2014. Auburn's 4th down defense also went from 46% in 2013 to 60% in 2014. Both stats which show that the defense failed to give the ball back to the offense as much in 2014 as they did in 2013.
Also, you failed to look at vs conference (which is the important stat here, no one cares how much you pound Rice).
VS conference it was 38.4 to 34.4, which includes defensive/special teams scores.
Take out the defensive/special teams scores, and it reads as follows...
2014 - 33.4 ppg
2013 - 35.7 ppg
Turnover Margin vs Conference
2014: -2 (14 gained, 16 lost)
2013: -2 (12 gained, 14 lost)
ETA: dropping 59 points on Mizzou has a way of skewing the statistics in a big way. Auburn's offense averaged 33.1 ppg in SEC play headed into Atlanta.
This post was edited on 9/2/15 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:11 pm to joeyb147
So you don't think that a +8 turnover margin from 2013 to 2014 is important to comparative analysis? If you had the same number of turnovers in 2014 to 2013 (instead of getting 8 more), what would be the most likely outcome? That you would have a higher scoring average or a lower scoring average?
Also, the numbers do not include defensive scores, only those produced by the offense. The difference between special teams scores between 2013 and 2014 was 1 TD, so I didn't think it important enough to factor in.
Also, the numbers do not include defensive scores, only those produced by the offense. The difference between special teams scores between 2013 and 2014 was 1 TD, so I didn't think it important enough to factor in.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:13 pm to AgsNguyening
Auburn fans don't realize that while 6-6 is the low end of the spectrum, it's definitely possible.
Evey single one of those L's could easily happen.
Evey single one of those L's could easily happen.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:15 pm to AgsNguyening
I think AU finishes 8th.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:17 pm to AgsNguyening
tFear is real
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:19 pm to m45auburn
I only see 4 wins
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:21 pm to 50 yard line
We are gonna be so bad, we will disband the program and use our funds to get UAB restarted.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:32 pm to RandySavage
quote:
On the flip I'd be really surprised if the SEC Champ didn't have 2 losses this year. Will that be enough to get into the playoff over a 1 loss team from another Power 5?
It should but if you get the other 4 major conference winners with only 1 loss or less, don't see how you could not take them.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:33 pm to AgsNguyening
We get that you're upset about our preseason hype.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:35 pm to IAmReality
quote:
Auburn fans don't realize that while 6-6 is the low end of the spectrum, it's definitely possible.
No, I think most of us realize that this is certainly possible. The SEC might be a monster this year.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:46 pm to AgsNguyening
quote:SEC record would be the same. I already addressed this.
So you don't think that a +8 turnover margin from 2013 to 2014 is important to comparative analysis? If you had the same number of turnovers in 2014 to 2013 (instead of getting 8 more), what would be the most likely outcome? That you would have a higher scoring average or a lower scoring average?
quote:False.
Also, the numbers do not include defensive scores, only those produced by the offense.
quote:False.
The difference between special teams scores between 2013 and 2014 was 1 TD, so I didn't think it important enough to factor in.
Also
you realize an extra score over a 14 game schedule raises your ppg average by 0.5 a point? And you want to ignore that? You really are terrible at this. 
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:56 pm to AgsNguyening
Someone found his jizz jar and it made him all kind of stupid.
West can produce any number of scenarios where 5-6 teams can come out on top.
West can produce any number of scenarios where 5-6 teams can come out on top.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 3:01 pm to AgsNguyening
quote:
I like Auburn. I really do. I just honestly think you have some big question marks on the offensive side of the ball is all.
If you are basing it on this, you are way way off... Our offense will be very very good..
Posted on 9/2/15 at 3:08 pm to joeyb147
You didn't really address it, but okay.
Offensive production is offensive production. I took the defensive scores out of the numbers when I posted them.
In 2013 you scored 1 TD on punt returns and 2 on KO returns. In 2014 you scored 2 TD on punt returns and 0 on KO returns. 3 - 2 = 1 And yes, I do realize that would be a .5 increase in the average. It wouldn't keep you in the top 50 scoring offenses though and I that was kind of my point.
Anyway, you seem to be arguing for the sake of arguing. Bottom line is that your offense took quite a step back last year even with the huge increase in turnovers. You still haven't shown anything to refute that simple concept.
Offensive production is offensive production. I took the defensive scores out of the numbers when I posted them.
In 2013 you scored 1 TD on punt returns and 2 on KO returns. In 2014 you scored 2 TD on punt returns and 0 on KO returns. 3 - 2 = 1 And yes, I do realize that would be a .5 increase in the average. It wouldn't keep you in the top 50 scoring offenses though and I that was kind of my point.
Anyway, you seem to be arguing for the sake of arguing. Bottom line is that your offense took quite a step back last year even with the huge increase in turnovers. You still haven't shown anything to refute that simple concept.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 3:20 pm to AgsNguyening
quote:I did. I'm still waiting for you to comment on how Auburn forced one more punt per game in 2013 than 2014. Do you think that extra possession gained by the offense would have any effect on the offensive numbers?
You didn't really address it, but okay.
quote:It seems you're missing an important special teams play. Maybe you don't remember it? Not sure how, it was kind of a big deal.
In 2013 you scored 1 TD on punt returns and 2 on KO returns. In 2014 you scored 2 TD on punt returns and 0 on KO returns. 3 - 2 = 1 And yes, I do realize that would be a .5 increase in the average. It wouldn't keep you in the top 50 scoring offenses though and I that was kind of my point.
quote:Oh, your made up point about subtracting random numbers from the totals based on nothing but your own insight? Did you apply this same rule to every team and adjust their scoring O accordingly? Because... that would need to be done for this made up analysis to have any credit.
It wouldn't keep you in the top 50 scoring offenses though and I that was kind of my point.
quote:Not really. Already addressed this. Auburn's offense averaged more ppg in the regular season against SEC opponents in 2014 than 2013.
Bottom line is that your offense took quite a step back last year even with the huge increase in turnovers.
This post was edited on 9/2/15 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 9/2/15 at 3:51 pm to tigerman99
quote:
We kick the Aggies arse by 30 points last year without about 4 fluke plays, including those two fumbles.
And if my grandma had a dick she'd be my grandpa. What is this shite, death by a thousand if's?
This post was edited on 9/2/15 at 3:52 pm
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