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Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:04 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:which is pretty much exactly what he did.
And if Harsin had the talent differential Alabama has I'd probably expect him to churn out 10-2/11-1 seasons.
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:08 pm to FearlessFreep
quote:
hich is pretty much exactly what he did.
He won't have those at Auburn though, which is the bigger point. I think he's a solid coach, I just don't think the "coached them up" angle is really applicable. They were a solid, consistent program that beat most of the teams they should beat, split the games (or won a few more) with the teams that had similar talent and lost the majority of the games against teams with better talent.
At Boise, that profile equated to 11-2/10-3. At Auburn it will equate to a little less than that - and that assume he recruits better over time than the initial returns are showing (I think he probably will).
This post was edited on 7/12/21 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:12 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
He won't have those at Auburn though, which is the bigger point.
nobody in the country has such a large talent disparity other than Bama but teams other than Bama have won a title in the last 10 years, with Auburn making 2 appearances.
Bama is such an absolute anomaly, that fans think other teams wont win unless they recruit like them. That isnt always the case.
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:16 pm to TrueLefty
Missery has a crazy inflation of their program.
They have beaten Arkansas during our worst stretch in program history because of a drunk coach and a HS coach.
You beat us last year with a QB that hadn’t played all year, a 2nd round pick safety that had to miss a half and some DL missing.
If we have decent QB play we will beat you this year. Didn’t you lose your only good LB to the draft?
They have beaten Arkansas during our worst stretch in program history because of a drunk coach and a HS coach.
You beat us last year with a QB that hadn’t played all year, a 2nd round pick safety that had to miss a half and some DL missing.
If we have decent QB play we will beat you this year. Didn’t you lose your only good LB to the draft?
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:18 pm to TheGusBus34
quote:
nobody in the country has such a large talent disparity other than Bama
Boloney. Say it as often as you like, the talent level between BAMA vs Georgia has been a wash for a number of years. The same for Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma, TAMU now, and historically LSU.
BAMA has a player development disparity. After 14 years you ought to at least know why you are getting your head handed to you.
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:19 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:This is true. Which is why I expect us to struggle the first couple of years as he installs his system, which is different offensively from what AU has run since 2009.
He won't have those at Auburn though, which is the bigger point.
BTW, that talent differential at Boise State over its conference foes wasn’t nearly as big an advantage as it has been made out to here. Using the 2017 rankings as an anecdotal example, BSU racked up 167 points in the 247 rankings, while the worst-recruiting school in the Mountain West that year, New Mexico, managed just under 110, a difference of 57 points.
To put that in perspective, AU’s class finished 9th in the nation and 4th in the SEC that year with 256 points, which was still only 49 points higher than Ole Miss, the worst class in the SEC West - but a whopping 55 points behind #2 UGa and almost 70 points behind #1 Bama.
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:20 pm to bamameister
quote:
BAMA has a player development disparity
Well it's both. Alabama is top 1-3 in talent every year, BUT Saban and his staff has done a great job developing and MANAGING talent.
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:23 pm to dchog
quote:Texas lines are garbage on both sides of the ball. I would expect any decent SEC team to have their way with Texas - Arkansas could run on that 2 DL defense all day, every day of the week. Same with the DL straight up blowing up that terrible OL as well. That game is not indicative of the SEC schedule
The same question I asked earlier. They have Arkansas beating Texas but winning one SEC game? That doesn't add up, if you beat Texas then you are winning more than one SEC game.
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:25 pm to TheGusBus34
quote:
nobody in the country has such a large talent disparity other than Bama but teams other than Bama have won a title in the last 10 years, with Auburn making 2 appearances.
Boise has a GIANT discrepancy with the rest of the Mountain West. Honestly, probably higher than Alabama has within the SEC. Georgia recruits at basically the same level as Alabama and LSU is pretty close behind.
Boise finished 1st in the MWC every year from 2016-2020 in recruiting. Nobody was even close behind them.
From 2016-2020 Boise State finished #1 in the Mountain West in recruiting every year by at least 8 spots.
Average Mountain West Recruiting Rank (2016-2020)
1. Boise State (#62)
2. San Diego State (#85)
3. Colorado State (#86)
4. Fresno State (#90)
5. UNLV (#96)
6. Nevada (#99)
7. Utah State (#103)
8. San Jose State (#104)
9. Hawaii (#106)
10. New Mexico (#110)
11. Wyoming (#111)
12. Air Force (#112)
The talent differential between Boise State and the rest of the MWC was absolutely on par with Alabama and the rest of the SEC, and in reality it was bigger. Alabama has peers in terms of depth of talent in the SEC, or close to it. Boise did not.
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:26 pm to texag7
Ole miss 10-2 with that defense??? LMAO
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:29 pm to FearlessFreep
quote:
BTW, that talent differential at Boise State over its conference foes wasn’t nearly as big an advantage as it has been made out to here. Using the 2017 rankings as an anecdotal example, BSU racked up 167 points in the 247 rankings, while the worst-recruiting school in the Mountain West that year, New Mexico, managed just under 110, a difference of 57 points.
From 2016-2020 Boise State averaged the #62 class. The next highest average over that period was San Diego State at #85.
Boise recruited like a bottom tier P5 school while the rest of the MWC recruited like Sun Belt schools. And Boise had the best classes every single season while other schools had a "good" year then a bad year.
It isn't a slight, Harsin had the best players and they did what they were supposed to do - they dominated the league. He's a good football coach.
Boise State is basically an upper tier American Athletic Conference program playing in the Sun Belt.
This post was edited on 7/12/21 at 1:36 pm
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:30 pm to lsuson
quote:
Ole miss 10-2 with that defense??? LMAO
I agree although they will look entirely different from last year. Last year we finished in the 120s. This year I suspect we will finish in the 70s-80s, which if our offense is close to what it was last year, may be good enough for a 3rd place West finish.
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:44 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Per the 2020 Team Talent Ranking by 247 (the 2020 roster broken down by recruiting ranks), Boise State had the 4th most talented roster in non-P5. The 3 teams ahead of them were AAC teams.
1. Cincinnati (84.39) (AAC)
2. UCF (84.12) (AAC)
3. Houston (83.66) (AAC)
4. Boise State (83.44) (MWC)
5. USF (83.38) (AAC)
6. Memphis (83.35) (AAC)
7. Florida Atlantic (83.32) (CUSA)
8. SMU (82.97) (AAC)
9. Louisiana Tech (82.57) (CUSA)
10. Florida International (82.52) (CUSA)
11. East Carolina (82.41) (AAC)
12. Colorado State (82.22) (MWC)
13. Tulane (82.14) (AAC)
14. UTSA (82.04) (CUSA)
15. North Texas (81.87) (CUSA)
16. BYU (81.81) (Independent)
Boise State really should be in the American. That'd be a really good addition for that league - in football and basketball. With the playoff expansion coming up, I'm guessing that league champion would almost always make the playoffs as long as they had 2 or fewer losses. Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, Boise State, Memphis, SMU.....that's some good football.
1. Cincinnati (84.39) (AAC)
2. UCF (84.12) (AAC)
3. Houston (83.66) (AAC)
4. Boise State (83.44) (MWC)
5. USF (83.38) (AAC)
6. Memphis (83.35) (AAC)
7. Florida Atlantic (83.32) (CUSA)
8. SMU (82.97) (AAC)
9. Louisiana Tech (82.57) (CUSA)
10. Florida International (82.52) (CUSA)
11. East Carolina (82.41) (AAC)
12. Colorado State (82.22) (MWC)
13. Tulane (82.14) (AAC)
14. UTSA (82.04) (CUSA)
15. North Texas (81.87) (CUSA)
16. BYU (81.81) (Independent)
Boise State really should be in the American. That'd be a really good addition for that league - in football and basketball. With the playoff expansion coming up, I'm guessing that league champion would almost always make the playoffs as long as they had 2 or fewer losses. Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, Boise State, Memphis, SMU.....that's some good football.
This post was edited on 7/12/21 at 1:47 pm
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:51 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:Again, once you get out of the top 10-15, those differences are far less significant.
From 2016-2020 Boise State averaged the #62 class. The next highest average over that period was San Diego State at #85.
Using 2017 as a guide (since I’ve still got the tab open in my browser), the difference between the #62 class and the #85 class was 33 points. In comparison, the difference between the #4 class that year (USC) and the #27 class (Arky) was 86 points, a much larger talent gap. And I deliberately didn’t use Bama’s insane #1 class that year, because it was an outlier at 323 points - which was over 100 points higher than the school 23 slots below them (Mississippi State).
I get your point, and realize that Harsin will have a much tougher row to hoe up against the upper echelons of the SEC than he did at BSU - but to compare his recruiting advantages there to Bama (or UGa or LSU) over its conference competition is wholly inaccurate.
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:53 pm to Terrific Tales
quote:
0% chance
Wait, this year might just be next year. Watch out sec west. You’re all about to be in a “chokehold”
This post was edited on 7/12/21 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:58 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Average Mountain West Recruiting Rank (2016-2020)
1. Boise State (#62)
2. San Diego State (#85)
3. Colorado State (#86)
4. Fresno State (#90)
ect.
I think Harsin is aiming for that same 62nd ranking. Auburn is ranked 70th now; only 8 more to go!!
Rivals
Posted on 7/12/21 at 1:58 pm to FearlessFreep
quote:
I get your point, and realize that Harsin will have a much tougher row to hoe up against the upper echelons of the SEC than he did at BSU - but to compare his recruiting advantages there to Bama (or UGa or LSU) over its conference competition is wholly inaccurate.
I do agree with your general point - that the difference is not as big once you get into some of the smaller schools, especially in terms of being reflected in recruiting rankings.
However, Boise recruited at the top of the non-P5. Their league, outside of them, recruited at the Bottom of the non-P5. And even comparing things like the NFL draft and then players signed to rosters and practice squads from the last 5-6 years would prove it out that Boise clearly had better players than the rest of that league - much better players than most of it outside of a few.
Top 50 Average Player Rank Teams - Non-P5 (MWC)
4. Boise State
13. Colorado State
18. BYU
23. UNLV
24. San Diego State
28. Fresno State
41. Nevada
42. Utah State
43. San Jose State
45. Hawaii
46. New Mexico
Their recruiting advantage compared to their conference peers was greater than anyone else in the lower divisions.
But, as I noted, they also dominated their league. I like the guy. I like his approach, I like the way he seems to want his football team to look and play. I'm really curious to see how he does, there. I think the floor is pretty high because he knows what he is doing. I just don't know what his ceiling is - but neither does anybody else. And that's why they play the games.
This post was edited on 7/12/21 at 2:00 pm
Posted on 7/12/21 at 2:00 pm to Bama2020
quote:
I think Harsin is aiming for that same 62nd ranking. Auburn is ranked 70th now; only 8 more to go!!
I don't even need to check rankings anymore because I know my lil bro has me covered!
But can you at least use 247 composite because it isn't 2005 anymore.
Posted on 7/12/21 at 2:16 pm to texag7
Ed O turning into Curley Hallman before our eyes.
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