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re: 2015 Clemson vs 2011 LSU

Posted on 1/14/16 at 12:49 pm to
Posted by cas4t
Member since Jan 2010
70909 posts
Posted on 1/14/16 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

Plus they played Alabama a lot closer than LSU did in '11.


No they didn't
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 1/14/16 at 12:50 pm to
2011 LSU is one of the 2-3 best non-title winning teams in the last 25 years.

Come on now.
Posted by cas4t
Member since Jan 2010
70909 posts
Posted on 1/14/16 at 12:51 pm to
I never disagreed
Posted by iglass
North Alabama
Member since Apr 2012
2918 posts
Posted on 1/14/16 at 1:00 pm to
quote:

2011 LSU gave up 20+ 3 times total that season, but this 2015 Clemson team would beat them by more than 20 four times out of ten games?

Right.


Look, goob, it was just a simulation with a small sample size. I provided a link.... run a few more and see what you get. It will average out to the true probable game situation in the end if you run enough.
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
43823 posts
Posted on 1/14/16 at 1:01 pm to
quote:

Look, goob, it was just a simulation with a small sample size. I provided a link.... run a few more and see what you get. It will average out to the true probable game situation in the end if you run enough


The simulation spit out 4 20+ point wins for Clemson in 10 games.

It's clearly shite.
Posted by PurpleandGeauld
Florence, TX
Member since Oct 2013
5173 posts
Posted on 1/14/16 at 1:54 pm to
Honey Badger and crew would have would have eaten that spread for lunch. Only reason Clemson scored so much is Bama's style of defense has the most trouble against the spread. LSU's was built to stop the spread.

Just ask Johnny Football how he thinks Watson would have done...
This post was edited on 1/14/16 at 1:56 pm
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 1/14/16 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

I never disagreed



Ha, sorry, it was a reply to the entire thread in general, not you.
Posted by iglass
North Alabama
Member since Apr 2012
2918 posts
Posted on 1/14/16 at 2:10 pm to
quote:

The simulation spit out 4 20+ point wins for Clemson in 10 games.

It's clearly shite.


I'm not sure you understand what a "small sample size" is and how that relates to Monte Carlo simulations.

Follow the link. Simulate some more for yourself. The more you run, the closer to the true probability average will occur. Go. Have fun. Get out of the house a bit. See some sunshine.

Edit: here's the link again: 2015 Clemson vs 2011 LSU Simulation

At the original posting, the simulation had been run about 20 times, now it is up to at least 50 and the overall winning record has swung slightly to Clemson.

You might find it quite interesting to unhide player stats and show the individual plays. It's not perfect - it's a theoretical exercise, though one statistically based. I find these sort of simulations to be interesting, maybe you will too.
This post was edited on 1/14/16 at 2:18 pm
Posted by The Human Fetus
Member since Mar 2006
556 posts
Posted on 1/14/16 at 2:54 pm to
Yeah and if you run the simulation for LSU 2012-2013 2015-2016 it's at 3-3 after 6 sims. That simulator sucks lol.
Posted by SoFla Tideroller
South Florida
Member since Apr 2010
30106 posts
Posted on 1/14/16 at 3:36 pm to
IMO, LSU'11 beats Clemson'15 about 7/10 times. That defense from front to back would have really limited Watson's ability to create plays out of breakdowns. Even with JJ at the helm, that offense of LSU's was better than people remember. LSU would force 1+ turnovers with that D (Reid and the Badger at their peak) and be able to make hay with the power run game.

But, Clemson would win more often than LSU fans want to admit. At the most important position in any sport, QB, Clemson'15 has a huge advantage.
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
43823 posts
Posted on 1/14/16 at 3:37 pm to
quote:

You might find it quite interesting to unhide player stats and show the individual plays. It's not perfect - it's a theoretical exercise, though one statistically based. I find these sort of simulations to be interesting, maybe you will too.


By interesting, I hope you mean "shite", because that's what it is.
Posted by iglass
North Alabama
Member since Apr 2012
2918 posts
Posted on 1/15/16 at 11:53 am to
quote:

Yeah and if you run the simulation for LSU 2012-2013 2015-2016 it's at 3-3 after 6 sims. That simulator sucks lol.


Yet another person who doesn't seem to understand the concept of "small sample size". Only six tries???

It's just pushing a button. Run it 50 times or more. Look at the plays and stats to see if they look reasonable and within expectations.

Don't just say "it sucks a lot" if you really don't understand the concept and methodology.
Posted by Tiger79
Zachary
Member since Apr 2009
7349 posts
Posted on 1/15/16 at 12:20 pm to
OP- Ohio state was better than ya'll last year, and if they would have made it to the playoffs they would have beat your butt again! :lol:

Btw there is know way to tell which team was better. 2011 Lsu had an incredible defense, and special teams

2015 Clemson had an incredible offense.
My guess LSU would have won in a close game.
This post was edited on 1/15/16 at 12:27 pm
Posted by Tiger79
Zachary
Member since Apr 2009
7349 posts
Posted on 1/15/16 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

2011 LSU is one of the 2-3 best non-title winning teams in the last 25 years


SummerofGeorge is correct
OP is just trying to start crap!
Posted by 632627
LA
Member since Dec 2011
12759 posts
Posted on 1/15/16 at 12:23 pm to
quote:

Which was the best team not to win a national title?



05 USC
Posted by Tiger79
Zachary
Member since Apr 2009
7349 posts
Posted on 1/15/16 at 12:24 pm to
quote:

Just ask Johnny Football how he thinks Watson would have done


Also ask Oregon their offense had a few similarities to Clemson, and we smoked them Ducks.
This post was edited on 1/15/16 at 12:27 pm
Posted by silverstreak02
Charlotte, NC
Member since Aug 2013
970 posts
Posted on 1/15/16 at 12:29 pm to
The difference being Clemson plays physical football, unlike Oregon. The 2015 Tigers wouldn't get pushed around by anyone, I feel like Monday night proved that.
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