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Play-off Committee's Worst Nightmare
Posted on 11/23/14 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 11/23/14 at 1:56 pm
The following scenario would be the Play-off Committee's worst nightmare:
Mizzou beats Arkansas and wins the SECCG.
Alabama loses to Auburn or Mississippi St. loses to Ole Miss.
Yes this is long shot, but it only requires 3 game results to go a certain way.
If that happened it would put the committee in a real jam. If they left the SEC out of a play-off it would seriously hurt the credibility of the play-off considering the SEC's history the past decade and also considering that the SEC West this year is considered one of the toughest conference divisions ever.
SO where would that leave the teams:
Missouri: Mizzou is a non-starter for the play-offs. If the committee had any inkling of putting them in the play-offs Mizzou would have been ranked before this past week. They will probably be 17-19 this week, and best case for them after a win next week would be 12th and that is highly, highly optimistic. Even if they won the SECCG it would be laughable to think they would jump all the way to the top 4 even if Ohio St., TCU, Baylor, Oregon, and Florida St. all sustained losses.
Georgia: Assuming they beat Georgia Tech they would be 10-2 and probably ranked around 7 or 8. They would be a prime candidate to move up, however would the committee put a team in the play-offs that didn't win their division?
Alabama (or Mississippi St.): I think the team that lost in the SECCG would be out. It would be hard to justify putting that team in ahead of Mizzou, and Mizzou won't be considered.
If this scenario happened I think the committee would put Georgia in based on its head to head win over Mizzou, or Alabama if it lost to Auburn and not in the SECCG. I think the justification for Alabama would be that it went 10-2 in the SEC West. I do not see Mississippi St. being given the same consideration.
What I cannot see is the committee leaving out the SEC, because if it does the play-offs will start out under a cloud.
Mizzou beats Arkansas and wins the SECCG.
Alabama loses to Auburn or Mississippi St. loses to Ole Miss.
Yes this is long shot, but it only requires 3 game results to go a certain way.
If that happened it would put the committee in a real jam. If they left the SEC out of a play-off it would seriously hurt the credibility of the play-off considering the SEC's history the past decade and also considering that the SEC West this year is considered one of the toughest conference divisions ever.
SO where would that leave the teams:
Missouri: Mizzou is a non-starter for the play-offs. If the committee had any inkling of putting them in the play-offs Mizzou would have been ranked before this past week. They will probably be 17-19 this week, and best case for them after a win next week would be 12th and that is highly, highly optimistic. Even if they won the SECCG it would be laughable to think they would jump all the way to the top 4 even if Ohio St., TCU, Baylor, Oregon, and Florida St. all sustained losses.
Georgia: Assuming they beat Georgia Tech they would be 10-2 and probably ranked around 7 or 8. They would be a prime candidate to move up, however would the committee put a team in the play-offs that didn't win their division?
Alabama (or Mississippi St.): I think the team that lost in the SECCG would be out. It would be hard to justify putting that team in ahead of Mizzou, and Mizzou won't be considered.
If this scenario happened I think the committee would put Georgia in based on its head to head win over Mizzou, or Alabama if it lost to Auburn and not in the SECCG. I think the justification for Alabama would be that it went 10-2 in the SEC West. I do not see Mississippi St. being given the same consideration.
What I cannot see is the committee leaving out the SEC, because if it does the play-offs will start out under a cloud.
6
Posted on 11/23/14 at 1:59 pm to Miz-Stl
Mizzou winning the SEC wouldn't be a nightmare, Georgia would be.
Posted on 11/23/14 at 2:23 pm to Miz-Stl
quote:
Play-off Committee's Worst Nightmare
Play-off committees worst nightmare is two SEC teams not none (especially if they cannot seed them 1 v. 4).
Posted on 11/23/14 at 2:30 pm to Miz-Stl
I said this to a friend the other night and in a thread yesterday, you want a quick turn to an 8 team playoff game and an extra game next year, you let the SEC get left out of the top 4 and I will bet anybody that we suddenly and most quickly have an 8 team playoff next year.
Posted on 11/23/14 at 2:33 pm to windhammontanatigers
what do you mean " if they cant find a way to put them 1 v 4" they choose.... its as simple as saying so
Posted on 11/23/14 at 2:48 pm to cattus
quote:
Mizzou winning the SEC wouldn't be a nightmare, Georgia would be.
Completely agree.
If this were to happen:
Georgia beats Ga Tech soundly and FSU struggles with Ga Tech
Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC CG
Then:
Miss St likely goes as only 1 loss SEC team but it would certainly be widely argued as SEC champ Georgia (who had also beaten probably FSU's 2 best opponents) would be left out and even Alabama that only had to play the extra game due to beating Miss St also left out.
Posted on 11/23/14 at 2:57 pm to Garfield
quote:
Play-off committees worst nightmare is two SEC teams not none (especially if they cannot seed them 1 v. 4).
IF they want ratings, and Texas and ND are out, that's two of the huge non-SEC fanbases, now you've taken out the entire SEC, what is left is approximatly 20% of the college football fan base.
I think ratings wise, no SEC in the playoffs along with several other of the biggest fan bases is a disaster.
Posted on 11/23/14 at 3:06 pm to Miz-Stl
quote:
Mizzou won't be considered.
Because Indiana lol
Posted on 11/23/14 at 3:08 pm to Miz-Stl
Mizzou losing to Arky and UGA winning the SECCG is the biggest threat for the SEC to not get a team in the playoffs. UGA isn't going to get in no matter what they do.
Committee would still probably put in the runner up in the West though, so SEC should get one in regardless. Only possible way I could see the SEC not getting anyone in is MSU and bama both losing next week and UGA beating a two loss bama in the SECCG.
Committee would still probably put in the runner up in the West though, so SEC should get one in regardless. Only possible way I could see the SEC not getting anyone in is MSU and bama both losing next week and UGA beating a two loss bama in the SECCG.
Posted on 11/23/14 at 3:11 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
Because Indiana lol
But NOT because of UT. Kind of sucks, doesn't it?
Rocky Flop plays Mizzou's speed bump yet again, LOL...
This post was edited on 11/23/14 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 11/23/14 at 3:13 pm to wm72
quote:
Miss St likely goes as only 1 loss SEC team but it would certainly be widely argued as SEC champ Georgia (who had also beaten probably FSU's 2 best opponents) would be left out and even Alabama that only had to play the extra game due to beating Miss St also left out.
State would definitely get in in that case. UGA isn't getting in no matter what they do. Chances are they will have zero wins against any top 20 teams by this time next week. They beat Tech, Tech will drop, AU will drop if they lose to bama and Clemson isn't in the top twenty. Too many other two loss teams will have both better wins and better losses.
This post was edited on 11/23/14 at 3:15 pm
Posted on 11/23/14 at 3:26 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
State would definitely get in in that case. UGA isn't getting in no matter what they do. Chances are they will have zero wins against any top 20 teams by this time next week. They beat Tech, Tech will drop, AU will drop if they lose to bama and Clemson isn't in the top twenty. Too many other two loss teams will have both better wins and better losses.
I tend to agree that Georgia would be a long shot since most of their wins would solid but not great.
However, I'm not sure that in this scenario just the strength of beating Alabama in the SEC CG and being SEC champions wouldn't put them at the top of other 2 loss teams (or FSU if they lose to GA Tech or UF) if it came to that. UCLA, if they win out, would be the only 2 loss team I could see possibly being ahead of a SEC champion Georgia.
It would however be a real headache scenario for the committee though to have to leave out the SEC champion and SEC West champion to include only Miss St from the conference while talking about the importance of conference championships.
This post was edited on 11/23/14 at 3:49 pm
Posted on 11/23/14 at 3:46 pm to Miz-Stl
BAMA would be IN ...because they are bama....just like the 2nd shot at LSU years ago....BOOK IT
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