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re: Offiicial SECr OTb MLB 2014 Season Thread
Posted on 2/25/14 at 1:28 pm to The White Lobster
Posted on 2/25/14 at 1:28 pm to The White Lobster
quote:
like what?
It's an algorithm, it doesn't take into account something like -- the certain mid season addition of the top hitting prospect in baseball. It can't accurately and rationally project the win total of a guy with just a handful of starts in the majors, it doesn't know that he throws 97 for 7 innings with a nasty curve to go with it. ect.
This post was edited on 2/25/14 at 1:29 pm
1
Posted on 2/25/14 at 10:53 pm to Sleeping Tiger
since when does byron buxton play for st. louis? (and pecota does know all about oscar taveras)
and are you talking about wacha? his curveball isn't great
and are you talking about wacha? his curveball isn't great
Posted on 2/25/14 at 10:54 pm to tduecen
not only is aj pierzynski 37, he is also bad
Posted on 2/25/14 at 11:34 pm to The White Lobster
quote:
(and pecota does know all about oscar taveras)
Doesn't account for the ceiling of a guy like Bourjos and how injuries have disrupted his young career. Expect him to be well above his career average.
quote:
and are you talking about wacha? his curveball isn't great
Talking about guys like Martinez and Wacha.
Talking about Rosie as the closer for a full season.
These things aren't accounted for the way a human would account for them.
Anyone or anything projecting the Cards to be under 90 wins doesn't know what it's talking about.
This post was edited on 2/25/14 at 11:35 pm
Posted on 2/25/14 at 11:54 pm to Sleeping Tiger
what is bourjos's ceiling? what the hell kind of ceiling can you have if you can't hit?
those things are accounted for, but whatever. i do agree that the cardinals win at least 90 games
those things are accounted for, but whatever. i do agree that the cardinals win at least 90 games
Posted on 2/26/14 at 12:20 am to The White Lobster
quote:
what is bourjos's ceiling? what the hell kind of ceiling can you have if you can't hit?
Bourjos hit .271 with 12 hrs and led the league in triples as a rookie. That has been his only full season in the majors. Last two he was fighting a bad wrist, which has been repaired.
And I think it's safe to say most guys improve on their rookie numbers. Guy should be a .280+, 15+hr, lots of extra base hits hitter.
Posted on 2/26/14 at 12:57 am to Sleeping Tiger
nah. probably a .310-315 obp guy, maybe 10 homers
Posted on 2/26/14 at 1:08 am to The White Lobster
quote:
nah. probably a .310-315 obp guy, maybe 10 homers
Nonsense.
That's lower than his rookie numbers.
Safe to assume he's capable of improving on his only full season in the majors.
Guy shoots both gaps, has hr pop, led the league in triples as a rookie, hit .271 only full season. Guy has an upside, there isn't a doubt.
This post was edited on 2/26/14 at 1:14 am
Posted on 2/26/14 at 1:17 am to Sleeping Tiger
his "rookie" numbers were .204/.237/.381
but i know what you mean
that was also his only good season. he still doesn't walk, stay healthy, or have much lift in his swing
but i know what you mean
that was also his only good season. he still doesn't walk, stay healthy, or have much lift in his swing
Posted on 2/26/14 at 1:30 am to The White Lobster
quote:
his "rookie" numbers were .204/.237/.381
Ahh, in '10 he barely made the cut off for at bats to qualify as a rookie. Part time player that was in the majors for less than half the season.
'11 was his only full year, and those were good numbers for a first year guy, or anyone.
'12 he hurt his wrist, never healed, struggled with it in '13, got it surgically repaired and it's now healthy.
Both those years were under 200 at bats.
And it's not like he's a bandaid who's had a list of injuries, he hurt his wrist crashing in the wall and it never healed on its own.
He's a gap hitter, I don't really care that he doesn't have a lot of lift on his swing.
This post was edited on 2/26/14 at 1:32 am
Posted on 2/26/14 at 5:41 am to The White Lobster
Jamie Garcia already seeing a shoulder specialist his 2014
Posted on 2/26/14 at 5:57 am to Sleeping Tiger
Bourjos will be a .260/.315/.390 guy he will probably steal 20-25 bases while being caught 4 or 5 times. His value will be on defense. Maybe moving parks will help his home run total a bit and therefore get the slugging over .400 but it isn't like he will be a good/great hitter. The guy is a strikeout waiting to happen with no plate discipline and you can see that over his 1000+ AB in his career.
Posted on 2/27/14 at 5:53 am to CatFan81
Bunp
Posted on 2/28/14 at 2:51 pm to tduecen
quote:
Bourjos will be a .260/.315/.390 guy
I don't get how it's fair to think he'll hit well below what he hit in his one and only full season in the majors. There is really no logical reason to think he'll be worse than he was in is only full season.
Just watched first spring training game
Posted on 2/28/14 at 2:52 pm to tduecen
I forgot that I started this thread. 
Posted on 2/28/14 at 5:21 pm to Sleeping Tiger
Yea totally illogical to see someone have a decent start and never reach those numbers again.
Just ask
Bubba Crosby
Angel Berroa
Ben Grieve
Bob Hamelin
Marty Cordova
Chris Coghlan
Etc.... Etc....
Just ask
Bubba Crosby
Angel Berroa
Ben Grieve
Bob Hamelin
Marty Cordova
Chris Coghlan
Etc.... Etc....
Posted on 2/28/14 at 5:39 pm to tduecen
quote:
Yea totally illogical to see someone have a decent start and never reach those numbers again.
If we're talking about logic, more guys improve on their first full season than decline.
Some of those are good examples of guys who fell off. But Bubba Crosby never had more than 105 at bats, so his .300+ average wasn't even a full year.
The good thing about this thread is it isn't going anywhere, come July we'll have a good idea of who was right.
Bourjos haters are just funny, using the last two years, which were both cut short with injuries isn't a fair way to judge him. I find it impossible to dismiss the fact he has a nice upside.
Posted on 2/28/14 at 5:51 pm to Sleeping Tiger
And if you look at his only good season you see reasons why he couldn't duplicate it a .327 OBP 124 strike outs and only 32 walks?
You're looking at his triples and home run totals and while I think his home run total increases I doubt he touches 10+ triples again. Also that season for a speed guy he managed a pedestrian 26 doubles.
You're looking at his triples and home run totals and while I think his home run total increases I doubt he touches 10+ triples again. Also that season for a speed guy he managed a pedestrian 26 doubles.
Posted on 2/28/14 at 6:13 pm to tduecen
quote:
And if you look at his only good season
You mean pretty much his only season.
He's had the wrist injury the last seasons.
I think a lot of guys that stay in the league learn to be more patient at the plate.
And factor in the Cards lineup, guy should hit upwards of .280, shoots both gaps and get's a lot of extra base hits, while being and elite CFer, I'll take it.
See you in July.
Posted on 2/28/14 at 6:31 pm to Sleeping Tiger
The guy has over 350 AB over last 2 seasons and you see a trend plus he is 27 next month so it isn't like a young guy. At this point he is what he is and you hope injuries haven't robbed him of too much.
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