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re: Is it O.V. for the dems in the upcoming election?
Posted on 2/1/16 at 2:03 pm to Person of interest
Posted on 2/1/16 at 2:03 pm to Person of interest
quote:
Hispanics are the largest minority group
Not in terms of registered voters. Not by a long shot.
As of the November, 2014 elections the registered minority voters looked like this:
Black: 18.4 million
Hispanic: 12.9 million
Asian: 5.1 million
As far as Trump motivating Hispanic voters, well I wonder why?
Just to reinforce what I said earlier - I'm NOT a Trump voter. I hope and pray he isn't the (R) nominee. I'm simply pointing out what I see happening next fall based on historical trends and what I think is the mood of the country - which is that I think the (D) nominee will have a very hard time no matter who they're facing.
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Posted on 2/1/16 at 2:11 pm to JustGetItRight
That was my point, they have historically not registered or voted in large numbers. Trump has them pissed.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 2:14 pm to Person of interest
quote:
That was my point, they have historically not registered or voted in large numbers. Trump has them pissed.
It remains to be seen if they'll actually come out and vote against him should he be the nominee. Not all legal immigrants (a prerequisite for voting in presidential elections) are a fan of the illegal type.
Anyhow, as I said, I'm just handicapping. We'll know for certain a little less than a year from now.
One thing's for sure - so far this has been the most interesting election in my 48 years.....
Posted on 2/1/16 at 2:25 pm to JustGetItRight
It has been interesting.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 4:24 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
Several reasons.
1) There's the malaise that happens virtually EVERY time one party has held the White House for two terms. Since the end of WWII, the party holding the president's office for two consecutive terms has failed to win a third every time but once - and that sole winner (Bush 1) was a one term president. No matter the party, the 'undecideds' get tired of the party in office and that party's dedicated voters get complacent. Since the Democratic party is in power now it is they're the ones facing the negative effect.
2) Hillary's not a particularly exciting candidate. She's got the infrastructure, but as a person she's just blah and completely lacks the charisma of Bill. Sanders excites his base tremendously but he has an incredibly devastating effect on others. For every 'undecided' vote he gains, he's going run another off.
3) Obama brought out the minority vote like no candidate simply because he was black. In both the 2008 and 2012 elections, black voter turnout (as a percentage) was much higher than white voter turnout by a very significant and historic margin. Hillary and Bernie won't have the same success in getting that vote out.
Those are all interesting points, but none address my question. I realize parties have a hard time winning three times in a row, Hillary isn't as exciting as Obama and minority turnout was unusually high for Obama both times. But there have been other presidential races where factors like this existed, and all of them still had higher turnout than a mid-term election. For instance, in 1988, GOP was going for 3 straight wins, GHWB was certainly not the personality that Reagan was and a significant GOP demographic (evangelicals) were decidedly less enthused with him than they had been with his predecessor. Likewise, in 2000, DEMs were trying to win 3 in a row, Gore lacked the personal appeal that Clinton had and moderates who liked Clinton were wary of Gore's tree-hugger positions.
If your logic above applied, those elections would have seen mid-term level turnout, but, like every other presidential election in memory, they both had higher turnout than a mid-term election.
To have a presidential election with turnout at levels of a mid-term election would be a huge anomaly and completely out of keeping with historical trends. Why would this election, featuring all the garden variety factors that we've seen before going both ways, suddenly be that huge outlier that bucks every precedent?
Posted on 2/1/16 at 4:56 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
To have a presidential election with turnout at levels of a mid-term election would be a huge anomaly and completely out of keeping with historical trends
I didn't say you'd have a presidential election with the turnout level of a mid-term. I said you'd have a minority and millennials turnout similar to a mid-term.
As to why, I don't think millennials aren't going to come out in numbers for HRC and minorities aren't going to come out for either one.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 7:55 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
I didn't say you'd have a presidential election with the turnout level of a mid-term. I said you'd have a minority and millennials turnout similar to a mid-term.
Still you don't give any reason why they'd turn out any less for Hillary or Sanders than they have for every other DEM candidate other than Obama. Mid-term levels? They've never done that in a presidential election before, regardless of candidate. Why this year all of a sudden?
Posted on 2/2/16 at 8:10 am to Nuts4LSU
quote:
Still you don't give any reason why they'd turn out any less for Hillary or Sanders than they have for every other DEM candidate other than Obama. Mid-term levels? They've never done that in a presidential election before, regardless of candidate. Why this year all of a sudden?
Death by a thousand cuts. There's the 'no Obama' factor, the malaise I've already mentioned, and there's a disappointment in the way the last 8 years have gone. I just don't think those groups are going to be very motivated to get to the polls.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 9:06 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
There's the 'no Obama' factor,
Been there before, never reduced turnout to mid-term levels among millenials or minorities, or any other voter demographic for that matter, for either party.
quote:
the malaise I've already mentioned
Also been there before, never reduced turnout to mid-term levels among millenials or minorities, or any other voter demographic for that matter, for either party.
quote:
disappointment in the way the last 8 years have gone
Among millenials and minorities? Really? What polls are you looking at? In the entry polls at the Iowa caucuses, over 50% of Dems favored "continuing President Obama's policies". Another 30%+ favored becoming "more liberal". Millenials and minorities are the ones who are going to be the most likely to feel this way, yet they are disappointed in the way the last 8 years have gone? I seriously doubt it.
quote:
I just don't think those groups are going to be very motivated to get to the polls.
Less motivated than they were for John Kerry? Al Gore? Michael Dukakis? Why?
Clinton has strong support among minorities and Sanders is very strong with millenials. There's no reason to think either of these groups will be so full of malaise and disappointment that they just suddenly, for the first time ever, decide to stay home at mid-term levels, especially if Tea Party Cruz or Crazy Trump manage to win the GOP nomination.
Also consider that the Obama effect may possibly have some carry-over, specifically relating to large increases in minority voter registration and millenial engagement during the last two presidential elections. Just having more of these demographics on the books and engaged may have the effect of increasing raw number turnout among these two constituencies, regardless of candidate.
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 9:11 am
Posted on 2/4/16 at 5:39 pm to cas4t
quote:
I think you underestimate minorities and millenials.
Those are two growing socialist groups, no doubt about it ... but this country is still predominantly anti-Socialist, although this may be the last election cycle where that applies given how we baby boomers are dying-off.
I do believe the country, thanks to Obama and his seeding of this country with illegals who will vote socialist, along with their anchor babies ... this country is destined for socialism and it will be catastrophic and tragic when it happens. It's coming soon ... hell, we're almost there already.
I never thought I'd see it in my lifetime.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 5:49 pm to scrooster
Yep I agree we are screwed. Just a matter of time with so many idiots who received zero fricking home training.
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