Started By
Message
re: Arkansas 2020 is Arkansas 2019 with a better turnover margin
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:50 pm to Roger Klarvin
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:50 pm to Roger Klarvin
Ok I think you have adequately convinced yourself, you can sleep tonight now. May want to pace yourself though there’s almost 2 weeks until kickoff.
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 10:51 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:50 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Marshall goin in dry on your center
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:53 pm to Roger Klarvin
Maybe the real thesis is that 2019 Arkansas was better than people thought. Starkel threw 5 picks in a game they still could have won.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:55 pm to Latarian
quote:
It’s fun, same things State and Ole Miss fans have said. A&M is basically a similar program to them with a better PR department.
State may not win another game, and Ole Miss is a 3-4 win team. They could both COMBINE for 5 total wins.
We’re considerably better than both, at least somewhat better than Auburn and Arkansas got boat raced by the only other team they’ve played.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:56 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
This year? All four
I haven’t watched more than a series of y’all excluding highlights (when I was waiting on the hog game to be featured). But let me guess, Mond still has bitch face and Jimbo the used car salesman vibe.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:57 pm to beaverfever
The last 3 Arkansas teams, which is undoubtedly the worst 3 year span in our history, all played A&M within a touchdown. How Aggie can think any game between us is a sure W is pretty funny. But alas, Aggie being scared just shows we’re back baby.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:58 pm to Roger Klarvin
You beat Vandy by 5 points.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:58 pm to Hawgeye
quote:
Your program is literally paying a guy $75mil for three years of average football. Congrats.
Truth! These frickers act like they are going places. At their best, with Manziel and top 5 talent around him they haven't done shite in the SEC. They act like the Bert and Chad years or indicative of Arkansas football when they are still are bitches historically. Any Western titles? BCS bowls? Top 5 finishes? Nope. Granted, it has been since Petrino, but we are headed up and they are headed to where we were. They just dropped anchor with the rope around their nuts with that Jimbob contract. Sorry guys, we've been through it. It gets a lot worse though.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:59 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:I remember that game. Arkansas was in good position until late in the third quarter when their qb threw two interceptions. Basically just bad luck separated Arkansas and Georgia.
Arkansas got boat raced by the only other team they’ve played.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:59 pm to Latarian
quote:
You beat Vandy by 5 points.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:01 pm to beaverfever
quote:
Maybe the real thesis is that 2019 Arkansas was better than people thought. Starkel threw 5 picks in a game they still could have won.
This is true, Arkansas’ estimated 2019 record based on their advanced data was 4.1-7.9. They were at least two wins better than their final record based on all the numbers. They had a couple games last year with crazy skews in turnovers the other way.
I expect them to win around 4 games this year, which given they will all be conference games will indicate a return to the mean on the basis of a couple wins with insane turnover stats the other way. Their estimated W-L will probably be around 3-7 but they’ll win an extra game or two on that basis.
That’s how year to year statistical variation works based on a component of random chance present in the game. So Arkansas is still a bad team with similar numbers across the board this year, but not as bad as last year’s record shows and probably a little worse than what this years record will show.
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 11:02 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:01 pm to SmackoverHawg
quote:
Top 5 finishes? Nope.
So the top 5 finish in 2012 doesn't count?
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:03 pm to Latarian
quote:
You beat Vandy by 5 points.
Correct, a very anomalous game statistically.
The difference is we also convincingly beat State and bet top 5 Florida in a game we outplayed them in. Arkansas was outplayed in BOTH of their wins apart from the anomalous stat in question.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:04 pm to Roger Klarvin
Is Mond still your starting QB on 10/31? Ok then we have a chance.
Unless he’s finally figured it out which I’m sure you have data to support.
Unless he’s finally figured it out which I’m sure you have data to support.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:04 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
So Arkansas is still a bad team
I wouldn't say that.
At worst, Arkansas will beat Missouri and Tennessee. They have an outside shot at beating LSU. That puts them at 6-4 on the season.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:04 pm to Latarian
quote:
Is Mond still your starting QB on 10/31? Ok then we have a chance.
Is Franks still YOUR starting QB?
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:05 pm to piggilicious
quote:
But let me guess, Mond still has bitch face and Jimbo the used car salesman vibe.
Correct
But let’s be fair, Felipe Franks gives off that “my IQ may or may not be two standard deviations below the mean” vibe
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:06 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
Is Franks still YOUR starting QB?
I’m not the one claiming an easy victory. He hasn’t been lighting it up but he’s also not making mistakes so our defense can win us games. Brilliant actually.
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 11:08 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:08 pm to Latarian
quote:
I’m not the one claiming an easy victory
Neither are we. Has any Aggie in this thread predicted anything but a victory? Arkansas fans are predicting 3-4 score wins at a place they haven't won at in 31 yards.
If anything it will be like last week's game, where A&M is in control throughout but only wins by 7-10.
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 11:09 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:09 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Roger sure is trying and I’m enjoying it. He’s crunching numbers so hard so he can feel better about the game when it reality data doesn’t mean shite in this series. It’ll most likely be a 1 score game per usual.
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News