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Ranking the best programs of All-Time
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:23 pm
There has been a lot of talk in recent weeks about how the various programs of the SEC rank all-time... and also where they rank nationally. I came up with a formula to see how programs shake out. Here are are the components of that formula:
AP Poll Points: 50%
All-Time Wins: 25%
All-Time Win%: 25%
Bonus Points: National Titles and Heisman Trophies
FYI: A National Championship is worth 10x more bonus points than a Heisman Trophy
***Results from all of the above categories that have taken place in the last 40 years are weighted double compared to the results of the era prior to a generation ago.
For example: Tennessee's 1998 National Title counts twice as many points as their National Championship in 1951. As do their wins (or lack there of) and AP Points from 1976 through the present day compared to all of those things before 1976.
Why 40 year? It's a generation. While its beginning to slide into the distant past, Georgia is still feeding off our 1980 National Title and Herschel Walker more so than Texas A&M is able to feed of their title won back in the 1930s. Herschel Walker is still in the minds of many, many people when they think "Georgia football." Where as I'm not sure the name John Crow means much to the average college football fan.
So here are the rankings, broken out first into the "Old Days" and the "New Days"... then the total of both. Remember the category for recent times is worth double that of the old days:
Final Note: Only current Power programs + Army, Navy, Air Force, BYU, Houston, SMU, Louisville, Cincinnati, Boise State, and Tulsa are considered. Despite being powerful programs of yesteryear, Yale, Princeton, etc. are not considered.
Best programs of Yesteryear (1869-1975):
1. Notre Dame
2. Oklahoma
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Michigan
7. USC
8. Tennessee
9. Nebraska
10. Minnesota
Other SEC Teams:
12. LSU
16. Ole Miss
17. Auburn
18. Arkansas
21. Georgia
26. Texas A&M
27. Missouri
42. Vanderbilt
43. Florida
46. Kentucky
56. Mississippi State
63. South Carolina
Best Programs of the Last Generation (1976-2015):
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Nebraska
4. Ohio State
5. Oklahoma
6. Miami
7. Michigan
8. Florida
9. USC
10. Penn State
Other SEC teams:
11. Georgia
14. Auburn
15. LSU
16. Tennessee
19. Texas A&M
24. Arkansas
42. South Carolina
48. Missouri
51. Ole Miss
56. Mississippi State
64. Kentucky
74. Vanderbilt (dead last nationally)
Best Program of All-Time (Weighted to favor recent history) with point totals:
ELITE OF THE ELITE:
1. Alabama- 109.2
2. Oklahoma- 101.9
3. Ohio State- 101.9
4. Nebraska- 94.6
5. Michigan- 93.8
6. Notre Dame- 92.9
7. USC- 91.2
ALSO ELITE:
8. Texas- 83.9
9. Florida State- 81.0
10. Penn State- 80.4
11. Miami- 79.4
12. Florida- 75.8
13. Tennessee- 74.5
14. LSU- 74.3
15. Georgia- 73.8
16. Auburn- 71.6
DECENT PROGRAMS, BUT BIG DROP-OFF
17. Clemson- 61.3
18. UCLA- 59.4
19. Texas A&M- 59.0
20. Washington- 56.7
21. Arkansas- 56.7
22. Michigan State- 56.5
23. Pittsburgh- 53.5
24. Virginia Tech- 52.8
25. Oregon- 52.3
Other SEC:
35. Ole Miss- 46.6
39. Missouri- 44.0
48. South Carolina- 40.0
60. Mississippi State- 35.0
66. Kentucky- 33.3
73. Vanderbilt- 26.9
Obviously this type of weighted formula heavily benefits programs like Florida State, Florida, and Miami due to all of their success during the past generation... while it simultaneously punishes programs like Ole Miss who were stronger a generation ago.
Is Florida really the 2nd best program in the SEC? I don't know. My formula says they are if you value recent success. While Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, and Auburn are all really close together as programs, I do think it makes more sense to place move value on Florida's success of the '90s and '00s compared to Tennessee's success of the '40s and '50s.
By far the biggest gap of all 74 teams is between #16 Auburn and #17 Clemson. This is the cut-off point of the elite programs, IMO. At #16, Auburn is closer in points to #9 than they are to #17.
I think there are 16 elite programs today in college football. While the order of the teams my vary, I think it would be difficult to find any ranking system with a different Top 16 in some order.
AP Poll Points: 50%
All-Time Wins: 25%
All-Time Win%: 25%
Bonus Points: National Titles and Heisman Trophies
FYI: A National Championship is worth 10x more bonus points than a Heisman Trophy
***Results from all of the above categories that have taken place in the last 40 years are weighted double compared to the results of the era prior to a generation ago.
For example: Tennessee's 1998 National Title counts twice as many points as their National Championship in 1951. As do their wins (or lack there of) and AP Points from 1976 through the present day compared to all of those things before 1976.
Why 40 year? It's a generation. While its beginning to slide into the distant past, Georgia is still feeding off our 1980 National Title and Herschel Walker more so than Texas A&M is able to feed of their title won back in the 1930s. Herschel Walker is still in the minds of many, many people when they think "Georgia football." Where as I'm not sure the name John Crow means much to the average college football fan.
So here are the rankings, broken out first into the "Old Days" and the "New Days"... then the total of both. Remember the category for recent times is worth double that of the old days:
Final Note: Only current Power programs + Army, Navy, Air Force, BYU, Houston, SMU, Louisville, Cincinnati, Boise State, and Tulsa are considered. Despite being powerful programs of yesteryear, Yale, Princeton, etc. are not considered.
Best programs of Yesteryear (1869-1975):
1. Notre Dame
2. Oklahoma
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Michigan
7. USC
8. Tennessee
9. Nebraska
10. Minnesota
Other SEC Teams:
12. LSU
16. Ole Miss
17. Auburn
18. Arkansas
21. Georgia
26. Texas A&M
27. Missouri
42. Vanderbilt
43. Florida
46. Kentucky
56. Mississippi State
63. South Carolina
Best Programs of the Last Generation (1976-2015):
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Nebraska
4. Ohio State
5. Oklahoma
6. Miami
7. Michigan
8. Florida
9. USC
10. Penn State
Other SEC teams:
11. Georgia
14. Auburn
15. LSU
16. Tennessee
19. Texas A&M
24. Arkansas
42. South Carolina
48. Missouri
51. Ole Miss
56. Mississippi State
64. Kentucky
74. Vanderbilt (dead last nationally)
Best Program of All-Time (Weighted to favor recent history) with point totals:
ELITE OF THE ELITE:
1. Alabama- 109.2
2. Oklahoma- 101.9
3. Ohio State- 101.9
4. Nebraska- 94.6
5. Michigan- 93.8
6. Notre Dame- 92.9
7. USC- 91.2
ALSO ELITE:
8. Texas- 83.9
9. Florida State- 81.0
10. Penn State- 80.4
11. Miami- 79.4
12. Florida- 75.8
13. Tennessee- 74.5
14. LSU- 74.3
15. Georgia- 73.8
16. Auburn- 71.6
DECENT PROGRAMS, BUT BIG DROP-OFF
17. Clemson- 61.3
18. UCLA- 59.4
19. Texas A&M- 59.0
20. Washington- 56.7
21. Arkansas- 56.7
22. Michigan State- 56.5
23. Pittsburgh- 53.5
24. Virginia Tech- 52.8
25. Oregon- 52.3
Other SEC:
35. Ole Miss- 46.6
39. Missouri- 44.0
48. South Carolina- 40.0
60. Mississippi State- 35.0
66. Kentucky- 33.3
73. Vanderbilt- 26.9
Obviously this type of weighted formula heavily benefits programs like Florida State, Florida, and Miami due to all of their success during the past generation... while it simultaneously punishes programs like Ole Miss who were stronger a generation ago.
Is Florida really the 2nd best program in the SEC? I don't know. My formula says they are if you value recent success. While Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, and Auburn are all really close together as programs, I do think it makes more sense to place move value on Florida's success of the '90s and '00s compared to Tennessee's success of the '40s and '50s.
By far the biggest gap of all 74 teams is between #16 Auburn and #17 Clemson. This is the cut-off point of the elite programs, IMO. At #16, Auburn is closer in points to #9 than they are to #17.
I think there are 16 elite programs today in college football. While the order of the teams my vary, I think it would be difficult to find any ranking system with a different Top 16 in some order.
This post was edited on 7/27/16 at 12:26 pm
21
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:27 pm to BHMKyle
Long as we agree Auburn is elite, list is fine with me 
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:27 pm to BHMKyle
So Texas A&M football isn't the greatest program of all time?
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:27 pm to BHMKyle
U got some time on your hands...
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:32 pm to I-H8-BAMA
Pot, meet kettle.
This is really well done
This is really well done
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:32 pm to AU_251
quote:
Long as we agree Auburn is elite, list is fine with me
Dude. In the other thread you guys were considered Top 15 and y'all had a major meltdown. In this one you are #16 and you are ok with it, because he put you under the title of Elite?
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:32 pm to BHMKyle
The associated press is going to release their list next week.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:34 pm to Sgt Deds
quote:
Sgt Deds
This one is ate up with all things A&M
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:35 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
AP Poll Points: 50%
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:36 pm to BHMKyle
The end of segregation did a number on Ole Miss.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:36 pm to ksayetiger
This is going to go well.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:39 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Is Florida really the 2nd best program in the SEC? I don't know. My formula says they are if you value recent success.
Well, I'd much rather be in Florida's shoes than Nebraska.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:40 pm to FiftyShades
like a turd in a punch bowl
Which reminds me of a question I had for ole miss fans about post season play....
Which reminds me of a question I had for ole miss fans about post season play....
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:41 pm to BHMKyle
Conf titles need to be taken into consideration imo. Maybe even division titles
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:42 pm to ksayetiger
quote:
AP Poll Points: 50%
AP Points are very valuable in a ranking system. Here's why:
1. They go all the way back to 1936.
If a program did anything great prior to 1936, it probably doesn't matter all that much nowadays anyway.
2. It is the best way to give reward to Strength of Schedule.
South Carolina can go 8-5 and finish ranked in the Top 25 while Northern Illinois can finish 12-2 and finish unranked. Why? Because AP voters reward SOS. Factoring straight wins and losses is not very accurate because there is no way to factor SOS.
I also chose not to factor Bowls and Bowl wins because of the constant fluctuation in the number of bowls over time.... as well as the fact that some programs long ago chose not to play in them.
Conference Championships were not included because they are not equal.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:42 pm to BHMKyle
BHMKyle laughable is the best I can say about your system to rank teams.
Real college football historians would never give 50% of the points to a poll. Also to a poll that does not cover the history of college football, a poll is an opinion not a fact.
Real college football historians would never give 50% of the points to a poll. Also to a poll that does not cover the history of college football, a poll is an opinion not a fact.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:42 pm to BHMKyle
Miami and FSU way too high
Says its weighted with recency but Penn state are #10
Meh whatever
Says its weighted with recency but Penn state are #10
Meh whatever
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:42 pm to MizzouTrue
quote:
Conf titles need to be taken into consideration imo. Maybe even division titles
The problem is, conference titles are not equal. Oklahoma had an absurd number of con titles. Put them in the sec or big ten, and that number drops by 50-75%.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:43 pm to MizzouTrue
quote:
Conf titles need to be taken into consideration imo. Maybe even division titles
Why? So the champ of the ACC Coastal can get the same number of points as the Champ of the SEC West? No way.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 12:44 pm to DawgsLife
quote:
Dude. In the other thread you guys were considered Top 15 and y'all had a major meltdown
The meltdown was with the jackwagon UGA fan who insisted only one set of criteria was valid for making that list while totally ignoring others like the AP & BCS polls.
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