Scoring Offense/Defense Analysis: South Carolina

You know the formula, here's the raw data:

A&M PF 31.7 ppg (7.7 over opp. averages), 21.0 ppg vs. SEC (0.9 over opp. averages)

A&M PA 24.1 ppg (7.1 under opp. averages), 25.5 ppg vs. SEC (8.9 under opp. averages)

SC PF 20.4 ppg (0.5 under opp. averages), 19.0 ppg vs. SEC (0.3 under opp averages)

SC PA 26.3 ppg (0.1 over opp. averages), 31.4 ppg vs. SEC (13.5 over opp averages)

Here are the four scores you get using the different formulas:

A&M 34, South Carolina 13 (blowout)
A&M 32, South Carolina 19 (1 score win)
A&M 32, South Carolina 24 (tossup)
A&M 35, South Carolina 25 (1 score win)

A&M between 32-35 points
South Carolina between 13-25 points

Aggregating, we win by 1+ scores.

If we score fewer than 30 or allow more than 24 vs. South Carolina, we're in SERIOUS TROUBLE

Applying the primary metric to the remainder of the season, you get:

A&M 37, Auburn 21 (1+ score win)

A&M 35, Western Carolina 21 (1+ score win)

A&M 24, Vanderbilt 11 (1+ score win)

LSU 32, A&M 30 (tossup, but was leaning A&M prior to this weekend - this will only get worse)

We'll probably beat South Carolina, but look like complete shite doing it.