A&M vs. Auburn scoring analysis

Again, the numbers don't look great, but they could look worse.

A&M averages 32.1 ppg (23.8 vs. SEC opponents) and allows 24.1 ppg (26.0 vs. SEC opponents).

Auburn averages 27.3 ppg (25.0 vs. SEC opponents) and allows 29.4 ppg (34.0 vs. SEC opponents).

Against its opponents, A&M scores 7.5 ppg more than its opponent allow and allows 6.0 ppg fewer than its opponents score. Against SEC opponents, A&M scores 2.2 ppg more than its opponents allow and allows 6.4 ppg fewer than its opponent score.

Against Auburn's opponents, it scores 4.6 ppg more than its opponents allow and allows 2.9 ppg fewer than its opponents score. Against SEC opponents, Auburn scores 1.8 ppg more than its opponents allow and allows its opponents scoring averages.

Using A&M's numbers, you get the following:

All opponents: A&M 37, Auburn 21
SEC opponents: A&M 36, Auburn 19

Using Auburn's numbers, you get the following:

All opponents: A&M 29, Auburn 29
SEC opponents: Auburn 28, A&M 24

Aggregating the four, you get 2 tossups (1 leaning Auburn) and 2 2+ score A&M wins.

Score range looks like this:

A&M: 24-37 points
Auburn: 19-29 points

A&M has yet to allow anyone not named Alabama to score more than 28 points. Using our only common opponents, Auburn scored 9 on Mississippi State (we scored 30) and allowed 17 (we allowed 17). Against Arkansas, Auburn scored 46 points in 4 Overtimes (we scored 28 in 1 overtime) and allowed 54 points in 4 overtimes (we allowed 21 in one overtime). The game was 24-24 at the end of regulation.

What can we glean from this? It's likely that A&M wins by between 7-10 points unless we completely shite the bed again, which is possible too.