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re: 2016 Recruiting Discussion
Posted on 6/9/15 at 9:31 am to Cooter Davenport
Posted on 6/9/15 at 9:31 am to Cooter Davenport
I know Chavis has always been a guy that is very confident in his evaluations
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Posted on 6/9/15 at 9:32 am to Cooter Davenport
quote:
I'm freaking fascinated by this recruiting cycle.
Agreed.
I think it is folly for Aggies to be star chasers. Of our pile of recent first round draft picks most were three stars, and we have watched how one highly rated talent after another has washed out of the 2013 class.
I like when we are confident about our picks, especially on defense considering the fact we hired Chavis to have a pro looking at that side of the ball. On the other hand it would be nice to build up another stint of recruiting momentum, because if someone flips Little we are looking at a class outside the top 15 maybe for the first time in Sumlin's time. We need another high-profile star willing to do some recruiting for us this cycle, like Ag Swag or Kyler. Or maybe not.
Honestly now the results suddenly matter, just stacking recruits isn't enough for Sumlin to keep his job for forever. So I care less about the stars and more about what is done with them. Last year we lost to SEC teams that recruiting above and below us. At some point the rubber has to hit the road.
Posted on 6/9/15 at 10:02 am to cardboardboxer
It's one of two things, right?
Either they're very good talent evaluators who know they're good and are getting guys they truly want right now
Or
They're aware they've lost momentum and won't be landing the top guys come spring so they're getting commitments from the guys who they CAN land now before they're grabbed up at the end of the cycle by other programs that are desperately backfilling at the same time. Sort of like the bar strategy of knowing 10s are out of your league and chatting up 6s early so you don't get stuck having to go after 3s near last call.
Either they're very good talent evaluators who know they're good and are getting guys they truly want right now
Or
They're aware they've lost momentum and won't be landing the top guys come spring so they're getting commitments from the guys who they CAN land now before they're grabbed up at the end of the cycle by other programs that are desperately backfilling at the same time. Sort of like the bar strategy of knowing 10s are out of your league and chatting up 6s early so you don't get stuck having to go after 3s near last call.
This post was edited on 6/9/15 at 10:04 am
Posted on 6/9/15 at 10:18 am to cardboardboxer
quote:
if someone flips Little
It almost feels like this is inevitable, doesn't it? I don't think we lose him but it feels as if we are just one of a handful of teams that have a chance to get his signature on NSD and not the team who has his commitment
Posted on 6/9/15 at 10:29 am to Cooter Davenport
quote:
They're aware they've lost momentum and won't be landing the top guys come spring so they're getting commitments from the guys who they CAN land now before they're grabbed up at the end of the cycle by other programs that are desperately backfilling at the same time. Sort of like the bar strategy of knowing 10s are out of your league and chatting up 6s early so you don't get stuck having to go after 3s near last call.
Does this really work though? I pretty clearly remember the days when we were a second tier recruiting school and in those days it was rare when a top tier program couldn't backfill late off of our commitment list. I think being "committed" matters even less than it did back then.
I don't think plan B is an option. Either we are getting guys we want, or Sumlin is completely out of gas and we need to start putting together the buyout money. I don't see it that way though.
I mean, neither Texas nor OU is killing it in recruiting. I think we are close to seeing a late SWC effect where a lot of top Texas talent goes out of state rather than stick with us or Texas if neither has a great season. Our problems is unlike in the SWC days that makes OUR competition better as much of those players are going to SEC teams.
quote:
It almost feels like this is inevitable, doesn't it? I don't think we lose him but it feels as if we are just one of a handful of teams that have a chance to get his signature on NSD and not the team who has his commitment
He feels barely committed at best. I would love to have the kid, but our recent struggles and Kylers almost late flip didn't help us. Bama guys seem confident they are in play for him. If Nick keeps raiding Texas we might regret him not going to Austin.
Posted on 6/9/15 at 10:46 am to cardboardboxer
A trip to Atlanta would solve most of these problems. It's all about on field success and imo there is no reason we shouldn't have that this year
Posted on 6/9/15 at 10:49 am to swaggyp
quote:
A trip to Atlanta would solve most of these problems. It's all about on field success and imo there is no reason we shouldn't have that this year
Posted on 6/9/15 at 10:53 am to swaggyp
quote:
A trip to Atlanta would solve most of these problems. It's all about on field success and imo there is no reason we shouldn't have that this year
You know, when I followed Aggie recruiting in the 00's I kept getting told "winning cures everything." But then I look at TCU and Baylor (the teams in Texas that are winning) and neither are looking down the barrel of a top 10 recruiting class. I think winning is overrated, these kids go where it seems "cool" to go to. Plus it is impossible to get to Atlanta in the West without talent. That is like saying the cure to cancer is inhaling Mars atmosphere and because we know that we cured cancer. The truth is until we have a way to get to Mars its pointless.
We do need some on field success, but if it could coincide with a bowless Texas team, an OU team that gets Stoops fired, and a Kansas St. Big 12 title that cockblocks the private from the playoffs that would be great.
Oh and a LSU implode and a Nick Saban heart attack.
This post was edited on 6/9/15 at 10:55 am
Posted on 6/9/15 at 11:26 am to cardboardboxer
Everything is fine guys. The only commit we have that I'm questionable on is Colton prayer from LA.
A lot of these guys are going to end up 4stars. We're early in the process.
I'm excited it looks like we're identifying needs instead of carpet bombing the top ranked kids. I think the program is built to the point that we know where we're at and what we need going forward so we can be a little more specific in our targets.
A lot of these guys are going to end up 4stars. We're early in the process.
I'm excited it looks like we're identifying needs instead of carpet bombing the top ranked kids. I think the program is built to the point that we know where we're at and what we need going forward so we can be a little more specific in our targets.
Posted on 6/9/15 at 11:31 am to Nguyening
quote:
Everything is fine guys.
Agreed. I don't see anything WRONG, just different. It is way too early to say if different is wrong. If anything after the fallout of 2013 I am glad to try something new.
Posted on 6/9/15 at 11:35 am to cardboardboxer
In 2013 we were desperate for bodies. We took some reaches for sec bodies just because we didn't have guys to even practice against.
That translated to some misses on the field and especially off the field.
That translated to some misses on the field and especially off the field.
Posted on 6/9/15 at 11:36 am to cardboardboxer
quote:
Everything is fine guys.
Because.....
Everything is fine guys.
Because.....
Posted on 6/9/15 at 11:38 am to Nguyening
quote:
In 2013 we were desperate for bodies. We took some reaches for sec bodies just because we didn't have guys to even practice against.
It also helped build recruiting momentum which led to that great 2014 class. So I am not being a bitch, just trying to be optimistic about a cycle where we aren't a favorite for many top players in the state.
This post was edited on 6/9/15 at 11:38 am
Posted on 6/9/15 at 11:44 am to cardboardboxer
quote:
It also helped build recruiting momentum which led to that great 2014 class. So I am not being a bitch, just trying to be optimistic about a cycle where we aren't a favorite for many top players in the state.
Very true. We aren't in a bad position for most of our top targets, and you're not being a b. We've just gotten spoiled with early recruiting success recently.
Posted on 6/9/15 at 12:18 pm to cardboardboxer
Lol guys guys guys! I feel like I sparked a fire! My fault. I did imply winning cures everything but I believe that bc for a school as prestigious as we are and with how much "swagger" the program has accumulated in recent years, if we win then we are the cool school bc of perception and the way we do it. I feel like we are in a great spot but I'm not with the whole, we don't have enough talent to beat elite west teams. Obvi bama is stupid loaded but if superior talent won every time, sports wouldn't be what they are. We have plenty of talent. We have the two best qbs (the most important position on the field) in the conf. We have the best defensive player in the conf imo. Many think that UT kid is better. Daylon is an animal. Best group of wrs. Great d coordinator. Offensive genius. I find it hard to see us not win double digit games this year. With the schedule as home friendly as it is and a bye week before bama, I just don't see us not getting 10 wins.
Posted on 6/9/15 at 2:19 pm to swaggyp
quote:
With the schedule as home friendly as it is and a bye week before bama, I just don't see us not getting 10 wins.
Is a home friendly schedule really a good thing for us though. I kid. I kid.
...sort of.
Posted on 6/9/15 at 2:22 pm to betweenthebara
My expectations are similar 9 wins minimum + a bowl game
Posted on 6/9/15 at 2:27 pm to Old Sarge
I see us having the same season outcome as last year with maybe adding one more conference win. The seat will begin to warm up.
This post was edited on 6/10/15 at 12:01 am
Posted on 6/9/15 at 2:30 pm to betweenthebara
LSU is weaker
Auburn is weaker
Ole Miss is weaker
MSU is maybe a wash
Arky is weaker
Bama will be stronger
We will be better on D and much improved on offense.
Auburn is weaker
Ole Miss is weaker
MSU is maybe a wash
Arky is weaker
Bama will be stronger
We will be better on D and much improved on offense.
Posted on 6/9/15 at 2:34 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
My expectations are similar 9 wins minimum + a bowl game
I expect 5 wins and last in the West just like the Rant predicts. I hope everyone has such low expectations of us, because traditionally that is when our Aggies do the best. Expectations are like kryptonite to this program.
I also expect a recruiting class outside the top 20 for the same reason.
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