re: Wins by Alabama and Florida this weekend will guarantee the SEC a playoff spot

Even though the reality of them beating both teams is slim based on the past three weeks, they do control their own destiny. The committee values conference championships pretty heavily aka Ohio state last year. One loss sec champion gets in over any 2 loss team and leapfrogs everyone without a conference championship game. Aka notre dame and big 12. The precedent was set last year

25% of UF's 2-deep is injured right now. No team in the country could win against a top 15 and top 5 opponent in consecutive weeks with that much attrition.

Assuming UF gets healthy and assuming they beat FSU, it's going to have to be a complete 180 on offense for the committee to even put them in the top 8 come championship week.

If they pull off the upset of Bama, they'll still need to show some fire on offense. If they don't, there's no way the committee is going to select them.


The best thing for UF, though I hate to say it since it includes a loss, is to pull off the victory against FSU, keep it respectable against Bama, get a favorable bowl matchup, and finish the season on a high note with a solid bowl win, and be the best team in the state of FL. McElwain will be COTY nationally and there will be lots of positive momentum heading into next season. To have 12 wins, East title, good bowl win - in first year of new staff - that would be remarkable.

I think the perception of UF, should they lose to FSU but beat Bama, will be "lucky", and it will hurt the SEC. Winning the East - huge step in context of the SEC. Beating FSU - huge step in context of the state of FL. Win win.

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Clemson might drop 70 on the Tide.

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That is probably the worst matchup for Bama.

If you took the top 8 teams right now, I think Bama would be favored against all of the remaining 7, and I think they'd dominate 6 of them. Clemson is a bad matchup for Bama. Bama could still beat them by 3 scores, but they can't afford a repeat of last year's OSU's game with missed opportunities, untimely turnovers, and untimely big play giveaways. Everything in that game went in OSU's favor and Bama was still in it till very late.

But, if the wheels were to come off, Clemson could hang half a hundred on Bama, for sure.

The winner of the SEC is in....period...as long as UF and Bama beat the girls school and AU. Remember that Michigan St and Iowa most likely play each other and one will be done..the CFP already has 1 Big Ten team pegged...so nothing changes there and its a Big 10 lovefest in the media...but still only 1 gets in. Clemson could get beat by UNC....but lets say they dont, thats two spots...UF beats Bama and that is replacing 1 SEC team with another...because UF would move up after beating girls school to at least 7th...and beating a 2nd ranked Bama will catapult them into top four. That leaves one spot for probably Oklahoma or Nueter Dame....neither of which plays a CCG.

So if UF wins out

Clemson
Michigan State
UF
Oklahoma/Nueter Dame/or Oklahoma St /Stanford (2 losses)

Right now UF has two teams with 2 losses ahead of them, Stanford and Michigan...hard to see them get in with two losses but at least Stanford has CCG they would play.

Right now UF has to worry about beating the girls school with a lot of injuries on its roster.

My only real counter to this is Ole Miss- they put 35-40 points on everyone - Bama,LSU, Arky they put up 10 on Florida and 7 of those were in garbage time. This defense can make any team look bad.

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Ugly or not the resume is too good

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You are ranked behind teams with more loses than you right now and behind many 1 loss teams.

Naive to think anyone believes you are playoff worthy unless serious chaos happens