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re: Why is the UT/OU line only at OU -2 right now? Is this a clever Vegas trap?
Posted on 9/10/15 at 2:59 pm to RoscoeHarper
Posted on 9/10/15 at 2:59 pm to RoscoeHarper
quote:
First of all, BG is way better than Akron, and the QB for Akron may be the worst I've ever seen so take OUs defensive performance with a grain of salt.
Game is at Neyland, Mike Stoops has a lot of trouble with mobile QBs. Also, OU had trouble running the ball last week.
Game should be a pick em to me, and personally I think UT will win straight up.
Perine had 11 carries. We were focused on what we had at QB and WR more than we were our running game. We didn't even show 25% of our offense. We know what we have in our backfield. QB and WR is what killed our season last year.
This post was edited on 9/10/15 at 3:00 pm
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Posted on 9/10/15 at 2:59 pm to TheCaterpillar
Fwiw (which isn't much)
BGSU beat Akron last year like 28-7 with their backup QB.
BGSU beat Akron last year like 28-7 with their backup QB.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:00 pm to mightysooner
quote:
we know what we have in our backfield
Not on the line
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:03 pm to TheCaterpillar
Neyland is a tough place to play. anything over 3 is a gift either way.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:06 pm to Dr._Jimes_Tooper
The line will be fine. They killed themselves the first 4 drives with false starts and holding penalties against the best front 7 in the MAC full of upper classmen. Ya'll make it sound like they struggled for 4 quarters. Wasn't the case at all.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:08 pm to TheCaterpillar
Opened at OU +1. Just for the sake of interesting information.
When away teams are favored by 1-3 points, they win 61.2% of the time.
When away teams are favored by 1-3 points, they cover 57.2% of the time.
When the spread moves similar to +1 to -2 like it has, the team covers 52.9% of the time.
When away teams are favored by 1-3 points, they win 61.2% of the time.
When away teams are favored by 1-3 points, they cover 57.2% of the time.
When the spread moves similar to +1 to -2 like it has, the team covers 52.9% of the time.
This post was edited on 9/10/15 at 3:11 pm
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:08 pm to TheCaterpillar
It's in Knoxville and OU is still breaking in their new offense. I'm also not sold on Mayfield yet and their defense was rough last year. Closer than the experts on this board predict
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:10 pm to TheCaterpillar
Vegas knows UT has the chance to pummel OU
OU isnt that great and UT is at home with Butch Jones who has a very sold cover record.
Big Game Bob is a known choker in these spots
UT by 10
OU isnt that great and UT is at home with Butch Jones who has a very sold cover record.
Big Game Bob is a known choker in these spots
UT by 10
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:12 pm to TheCaterpillar
Oklahoma had 100 yards rushing at 3.3 ypc against Akron. Their OL is mediocre at best, and they have major question marks in the secondary. The game is in Knoxville as well.
The game is a huge unknown at this point, which is probably why Vegas has the spread where it is.
The game is a huge unknown at this point, which is probably why Vegas has the spread where it is.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:17 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Vegas knows UT has the chance to pummel OU
That doesn't really add up. They make more off bets if they favor the favorite in their starting lines a few more points (I think 1.5 is the actual number) than they really expect, because the general public is almost always more likely to bet on the favorite. The fact that it opened at -1 UT probably means they didn't feel comfortable giving them those extra 1-2 points because they don't want more money going on OU.
Maybe they just think it's a toss up, but Vegas doesn't generally do things on accident. If they wanted more money on OU I think they would have given UT like a 2-3 point favor at home.
This post was edited on 9/10/15 at 3:21 pm
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:24 pm to skirpnasty
quote:
Opened at OU +1. Just for the sake of interesting information.
When away teams are favored by 1-3 points, they win 61.2% of the time.
When away teams are favored by 1-3 points, they cover 57.2% of the time.
When the spread moves similar to +1 to -2 like it has, the team covers 52.9% of the time.
This isn't the least bit interesting
So the team favored wins 61% of the time? Holy shite batman!
The team favored by 1-3 covers a little over half the time as does the team when the line moves from +1 to -2?!?! WOW!
I have bet my entire adult life and this shite just doesn't help pick games in this situation. Those are almost coin toss numbers
ETA:
How many of those data points (games) were in front of 100,000 drunk people in deer stand orange? How many were even major college football? How many involved these coaches?
2% over half doesn't even begin to offset shite like that.
This post was edited on 9/10/15 at 3:28 pm
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:29 pm to mightysooner
Don't say you "only showed 25% of our offense" like you actually have a fricking playbook.
Lined up in pretty much every formation you guys ran last year, ran outside/inside zone, counter, power.
Keep making shite up.
p.s. After watching the game, the offensive line was complete shite.
Lined up in pretty much every formation you guys ran last year, ran outside/inside zone, counter, power.
Keep making shite up.
p.s. After watching the game, the offensive line was complete shite.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:31 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
I have bet my entire adult life and this shite just doesn't help pick games in this situation. Those are almost coin toss numbers
Any number off of nominal is significant when it comes to ATS. Vegas is really damn good at what they do. Specifically the away team favored by 1-3 covering 57.2% of the time. And the 61.2% is pretty big too, considering you could have gotten on this line at OU+1, and it's probably not finished moving.
You could make your case if the numbers were all over. But all 3 trends favor the same team. You take your noise, I'll take my statistics.
This post was edited on 9/10/15 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:32 pm to skirpnasty
Not really.
Break it down by out of conference, power 5 matchups in first half of the season and I'll pay more attention.
Too much variation in college football from team strength, conference strength, home field advantage, etc.
Numbers like that are more useful in the NFL where things are much more consistent from top to bottom in the league.
Break it down by out of conference, power 5 matchups in first half of the season and I'll pay more attention.
Too much variation in college football from team strength, conference strength, home field advantage, etc.
Numbers like that are more useful in the NFL where things are much more consistent from top to bottom in the league.
This post was edited on 9/10/15 at 3:35 pm
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:33 pm to HurdForHeisman1
quote:
Don't say you "only showed 25% of our offense" like you actually have a fricking playbook.
Lined up in pretty much every formation you guys ran last year, ran outside/inside zone, counter, power.
Keep making shite up.
p.s. After watching the game, the offensive line was complete shite.
We don't have the OC we had last year (got fired) nor do we even run the same offense (brand new OC) but we're the same as last year.
This post was edited on 9/10/15 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:38 pm to mightysooner
quote:
We were focused on what we had at QB and WR more than we were our running game. We didn't even show 25% of our offense
How much of our offense do you think we showed? I honestly believe we only ran 10 different plays the entire game, maybe less.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:39 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
How much of our offense do you think we showed? I honestly believe we only ran 10 different plays the entire game, maybe less.
Probably about the same I'd imagine. I don't believe for a minute you opened your playbook up for BG.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:43 pm to mightysooner
Well, when you rush for almost 400 yards, you don't really have to
BTW, BG's run defense was ranked 12 in the country last year, not exactly a pushover.
BTW, BG's run defense was ranked 12 in the country last year, not exactly a pushover.
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:44 pm to TheCaterpillar
Posted on 9/10/15 at 3:45 pm to Phat Phil
quote:
out of 7 pundits at CBS just picked UT to win straight up
LINK
Make a thread. You're slipping, Phil
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