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re: UPDATED 2018: Stats on WG's annual predictions thread - fanbase expectations
Posted on 8/3/17 at 11:31 pm to BranchDawg
Posted on 8/3/17 at 11:31 pm to BranchDawg
quote:
I did not expect South Carolina to be the most over-confident fan base in the SEC but, well, as they say, they cocky.
I see no issue in this.
A lot of these predictions labeled as overestimation comes down to basically 1 game, for a majority of the fanbases really.
example: SEC team prediction 9-3 (8-4) actual
While technically it is a overprediction, who the hell can predict a kick 6, a deflected pass into a open receivers hands, or a hail mary type of play changing the fate of a game?
Aside from all the obvious trolling and homerism on this board, there exist a great deal of football knowledge coming from every fanbase.
quote:
BranchDawg
0
Posted on 8/4/17 at 5:31 am to BranchDawg
Since I was curious and it'll take way less time than the OP, here's some rankings on some other stats from this.
Average predicted wins over actual wins per year:
1. Tennessee - 2.42
2. Arkansas - 2.21
3. South Carolina - 1.71
t4. Auburn - 1.35
t4. Florida - 1.35
6. LSU - 1.21
7. Mississippi State - 1.00
t8. Kentucky - 0.85
t8. Ole Miss - 0.85
10. Missouri - 0.83
11. Texas A&M - 0.75
t12. Georgia - 0.42
t12. Vanderbilt - 0.42
14. Alabama - 0.00
I think this plays to the last post's point, outside of the top 2 or 3 in these, you're talking about being off by basically a game each year, but at the same time, that likely means a loss to some rival that you thought you would beat.
Worst overestimation by each team:
Alabama - 2013: 12-0 (11-1) - that damn Kick 6
Arkansas - 2012: 9.5-2.5 (4-8) - that damn Petrino
Auburn - 2015: 10.5-1.5 (6-6) - that damn Jeremy Johnson
Florida - 2013: 9.5-2.5 (4-8) - that damn Georgia Southern
Georgia - 2013: 11-1 (8-4) - that damn Kneeland
Kentucky - 2013: 4.5-7.5 (2-10) - that damn...screw it, you're UK
LSU - 2016: 11-1 (8-4) - that damn Les Miles
Ole Miss - 2016: 9-3 (5-7) - that damn escort service
Mississippi State - 2011: 9-3 (6-6) that damn season I can't remember anything about.
Missouri - 2016: 7-5 (4-8) that damn poop swastika
South Carolina - 2015: 8.5-3.5 (3-9) that damn OLD ball coach
Tennessee - 2017: 9-3 (4-8) Worst on Rant record
Texas A&M - 2013 and 2015: 10-2 (8-4) that damn Texas A&M
Vanderbilt - 2014: 8-4 (3-9) that damn James Franklin
Worst overestimation in the history of tRant:
Tennessee 2017: 9-3 (4-8) - 5 games worse than predicted.
These numbers updated as of 11/29/17
Average predicted wins over actual wins per year:
1. Tennessee - 2.42
2. Arkansas - 2.21
3. South Carolina - 1.71
t4. Auburn - 1.35
t4. Florida - 1.35
6. LSU - 1.21
7. Mississippi State - 1.00
t8. Kentucky - 0.85
t8. Ole Miss - 0.85
10. Missouri - 0.83
11. Texas A&M - 0.75
t12. Georgia - 0.42
t12. Vanderbilt - 0.42
14. Alabama - 0.00
I think this plays to the last post's point, outside of the top 2 or 3 in these, you're talking about being off by basically a game each year, but at the same time, that likely means a loss to some rival that you thought you would beat.
Worst overestimation by each team:
Alabama - 2013: 12-0 (11-1) - that damn Kick 6
Arkansas - 2012: 9.5-2.5 (4-8) - that damn Petrino
Auburn - 2015: 10.5-1.5 (6-6) - that damn Jeremy Johnson
Florida - 2013: 9.5-2.5 (4-8) - that damn Georgia Southern
Georgia - 2013: 11-1 (8-4) - that damn Kneeland
Kentucky - 2013: 4.5-7.5 (2-10) - that damn...screw it, you're UK
LSU - 2016: 11-1 (8-4) - that damn Les Miles
Ole Miss - 2016: 9-3 (5-7) - that damn escort service
Mississippi State - 2011: 9-3 (6-6) that damn season I can't remember anything about.
Missouri - 2016: 7-5 (4-8) that damn poop swastika
South Carolina - 2015: 8.5-3.5 (3-9) that damn OLD ball coach
Tennessee - 2017: 9-3 (4-8) Worst on Rant record
Texas A&M - 2013 and 2015: 10-2 (8-4) that damn Texas A&M
Vanderbilt - 2014: 8-4 (3-9) that damn James Franklin
Worst overestimation in the history of tRant:
Tennessee 2017: 9-3 (4-8) - 5 games worse than predicted.
These numbers updated as of 11/29/17
This post was edited on 11/29/17 at 4:04 pm
Posted on 8/4/17 at 7:01 am to BranchDawg
Well done and all, but we won 3 games in 2015 not 2014.
ETA: looks like the overestimation stands, you just got the year wrong.
ETA: looks like the overestimation stands, you just got the year wrong.
This post was edited on 8/4/17 at 7:02 am
Posted on 8/4/17 at 7:09 am to CNB
Correction made
Posted on 8/4/17 at 7:34 am to BranchDawg
quote:
Worst overestimation in the history of tRant:
South Carolina 2015: 8.5-3.5 (3-9) - 5.5 games over actual result.
It's actually a three way tie, according to the numbers you posted.
quote:
Arkansas - 2012: 9.5-2.5 (4-8) - that damn Petrino
quote:
Florida - 2013: 9.5-2.5 (4-8) - that damn Georgia Southern
Posted on 8/4/17 at 7:38 am to RB10
Damn, you're right. It was a lot of numbers dude 
If it serves as a tie-breaker, SC had the worst record of that group.
If it serves as a tie-breaker, SC had the worst record of that group.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 7:39 am to BranchDawg
quote:
Damn, you're right. It was a lot of numbers dude
I get it. Just trying to help you out.
quote:
If it serves as a tie-breaker, SC had the worst record of that group.
Sounds fair.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 8:01 am to BranchDawg
Breaking News: Fans of their respective team tend to be homers.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 8:01 am to BranchDawg
Quote:
Auburn - 2015: 10.5-1.5 (6-6) - that damn Jeremy Johnson
10.5-1.5 seems real close to what's coming out of barn fans right now. Stidham=JJ 2.0?
Auburn - 2015: 10.5-1.5 (6-6) - that damn Jeremy Johnson
10.5-1.5 seems real close to what's coming out of barn fans right now. Stidham=JJ 2.0?
Posted on 8/4/17 at 8:14 am to BranchDawg
Vols overestimated every year
Posted on 8/4/17 at 8:23 am to CarolinaGamecock99
They can't face reality so they're just pissy and saying it's rigged
Posted on 8/4/17 at 8:43 am to jcolding41
quote:
They can't face reality so they're just pissy and saying it's rigged
Fake news
Posted on 8/4/17 at 8:50 am to BranchDawg
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Posted on 8/4/17 at 8:55 am to BranchDawg
The Petrino recruiting and John L. Smith coaching (which set the stage for Bert to stroll in and have a miserable season) really blew our stats through the roof.
The last three years we've been fairly accurate, only one or two games over and if you've watched Razorback football you know quite a few of those games we should have won but for the utter team collapses that are in danger of becoming Bielema's legacy here.
The last three years we've been fairly accurate, only one or two games over and if you've watched Razorback football you know quite a few of those games we should have won but for the utter team collapses that are in danger of becoming Bielema's legacy here.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 9:04 am to Vols&Shaft83
Posted on 8/4/17 at 10:20 am to TTsTowel
quote:
lot of overestimating going for every team.
Not every team.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 10:29 am to BranchDawg
quote:
BranchDawg
WTF is this high quality original content shite doing on the rant?
quote:
2013: 8-4 (11-1) underestimated
2014: 10.5-1.5 (8-4) overestimated
2015: 10.5-1.5 (6-6) overestimated
I think we got excited after that first year
Posted on 8/4/17 at 10:41 am to BranchDawg
2015 skewed our data so bad. Spurrier should have retired, but thought he had a good team, and we believed him.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 12:20 pm to Vols&Shaft83
Print the shirts!
This post was edited on 8/4/17 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 11/29/17 at 4:06 pm to BranchDawg
Bump because this thread has been updated for 2017.
Thanks Vols
Thanks Vols
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