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Title Game Breakdown and Predictions

Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:26 pm
Posted by UF
Florida
Member since Nov 2016
2696 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:26 pm
QB - Advantage Clemson on raw talent but it's a push in terms of the game.
QB v Def Coord - Pruitt will have a better plan against Watson than Kirby did last year. There are no "wrinkles" Watson can throw at Pruitt that haven't already been shown. But Watson has not seen what Pruitt will have in store for him.

OL - Even, Bama does not have the dominant type of line it did in the past, although it's still very good.
DL - Advantage Bama but Clemson is very good.
OL v DL - When Bama is on offense I believe Clemson will have success early getting a pass rush. Bama will adjust and they'll be fine. Bama will consistently move the ball but will not generate really long drives for TDs. When Clemson is on offense they will not consistently reset the line of scrimmage and will be completely dependent on big plays that occur when Bama is out of position or happens to be in the wrong set (or slips in coverage, as we keep seeing in these games where they construct the turf specifically for that one game and the roots never fully take hold). This will mean Clemson goes 3 and out much more than Bama.

LB - Advantage Bama. Both teams will depend on the LBs making tackles at the LOS. Bama is better here and Bama's LBs are better suited this year to dealing with Watson. But, Clemson has plenty of athleticism to track down Hurts on scrambles and bootlegs. No 40yrd runs for Hurts in this game.

TE & WR - Even. Clemson has more down field threat potential but Bama blocks better. This will be key to Bama's outside running game.

DB - Advantage Clemson. This is one of the two wild cards in the game. If Bama's DBs are too worried about Watson getting loose they may bite on some run looks that turn into passes. If Clemson gets several big plays like this, it will be the difference, should Clemson win.

Special teams - Even. Comes down to mistakes made. Dabo will be extra vigilant this year about special teams prep. I don't expect him to find any vulnerabilities to exploit but I expect him to shore up his own.

Punter - Huge advantage for Bama. This edge in field position will be the difference in Bama being able to go for FGs on stalled possessions.
Place kicking - Even.
FG - Even.

HC - Advantage Saban. I expect Dabo to be very focused on what happened last year as Clemson seems to think last year was a "woulda coulda shoulda they stole it from us" event. It wasn't.

OC v DC - Pruitt is a slight advantage for Bama this year. I expect him to have an overall better plan to contain Watson. Sark is the other wild card in this game. I expect him to give some of that old USC approach with more swing passes, tunnel screens, WR screens, and slants, but will not go deep as he used to with Leinart. A lot more quick hitter plays that have the effect of spreading out Clemson's defense. Because Bama blocks so well on the perimeter, it won't really help Clemson to be leaning wide except to maybe disrupt some slants or limit the yards after catch. It will however help Bama a lot when it chooses to run inside. I think we see Bama having its full playbook available late in the game, while the same won't apply for Clemson.

Overall, I think this is a somewhat low scoring game. Bama moves the ball consistently but settles mostly for FGs. Clemson does not move it consistently but pops a couple big plays to help them score.

I see it 12-10 Bama at the half. It's 20-18 Clemson at end of 3rd quarter as Dabo challenges a no catch for interception as Bama is moving the ball. Clemson gets the ball, momentum, scores. Bama fans will be pissed about 6 FGs and cuss Kiffin and Sark.

But Bama's control of the LOS comes through in the 4th as Clemson wears down a bit, and Saban makes a gutsy decision to go for it on 4th down at the beginning of the 4th quarter, converts, Bama plows in for a TD and Bama goes up 25-20 at the 14 minute mark. Bama fans start to relax. Clemson stalls, plays field position, pins Bama inside its own 10 but Bama steadily goes down field (like shite through a tin horn), scores again to go up 32-20 at the 8 minute mark. Bama fans declare game over, construction begins on new Saban statue, shirts printed proclaiming him best ever.

Bama puts 8 guys into coverage, forces Clemson to dink and dunk down field taking time, but they score easily, and it's 32-27 with 4 minutes left. Dabo has smartly saved his time outs. Bama fans contemplate disaster of an onside recovery or 3 & out and handing the ball to Watson at midfield with 3 minutes left in the game. Construction on statue is halted, shirt orders cancelled.

Clemson kicks it deep and hopes its defense can come up with a stop, but Bama converts a couple 1st downs and Clemson never sees the ball again. Bama fans say they had it in the bag all along.

Immediately after the game, Vol fans declare the Bama dynasty is over and project their margin of victory in next year's game. LSU fans hold hands with Vol fans and join in. Bama fans laugh at them both. We all laugh at Big10 and Ohio St. Harmony.
Posted by Robin Masters
Birmingham
Member since Jul 2010
29630 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:30 pm to
Care to be a little more specific?
Posted by UltimaParadox
Huntsville
Member since Nov 2008
40831 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:30 pm to
A for effort
Posted by Dude man 25
Member since Dec 2016
461 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:34 pm to
BAMA will win
Posted by 3morereps
The Gym
Member since Jun 2015
6735 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:36 pm to
Tldr... tide win in blow out fashion and dabo is a whiny bitch
Posted by phil4bama
Emerald Coast of PCB
Member since Jul 2011
11454 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:36 pm to
shite, I'll take that scenario right now.
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

QB - Advantage Clemson on raw talent but it's a push in terms of the game.

lol
Posted by Kcoyote
Member since Jan 2012
12050 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:38 pm to
quote:

QB - Advantage Clemson on raw talent but it's a push in terms of the game.



Not even close. Watson will have twice as many yards as Hurts AT LEAST.

That said, Alabama can still win.
Posted by viceman
Huntsville, AL
Member since Aug 2016
30688 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:41 pm to
quote:

OL - Even, Bama does not have the dominant type of line it did in the past, although it's still very good.

Good post. I don't disagree with much. Bama's oline grades better than Clemson's. In fact, one of Clemson's main concern going into this game, is that their inside linemen have been beaten too often. At least that is what a Clemson poster on this site told me.
Posted by UF
Florida
Member since Nov 2016
2696 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:43 pm to
quote:

Care to be a little more specific?


I'm here

Past where I thought I could go
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62729 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:44 pm to
I almost want to bookmark this to see if the real game resembles this in any fashion.
Much like reading the Old Farmers almanac at the end of the year.
Posted by UF
Florida
Member since Nov 2016
2696 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:51 pm to
quote:

Not even close. Watson will have twice as many yards as Hurts AT LEAST.


And yet his effect on the game will be the same as what Hurts does to Clemson because of all the other factors involved.
Posted by five_fivesix
Y’all
Member since Aug 2012
13834 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:51 pm to
quote:

Immediately after the game, Vol fans declare the Bama dynasty is over and project their margin of victory in next year's game. LSU fans hold hands with Vol fans and join in. Bama fans laugh at them both. We all laugh at Big10 and Ohio St. Harmony.


Great post, but the best was the last paragraph.
Posted by UF
Florida
Member since Nov 2016
2696 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 9:59 pm to
quote:

Good post. I don't disagree with much. Bama's oline grades better than Clemson's. In fact, one of Clemson's main concern going into this game, is that their inside linemen have been beaten too often. At least that is what a Clemson poster on this site told me.



Heres the box score from OSU Clemson
OSU Clemson
First downs 9 24
Rushing 3 12
Passing 4 12
Penalty 2 0
3rd Down Efficiency 3-14, 21% 8-17, 47%
4th down efficiency 0-2, 0% 0-1, 0%
Rushes-Yards 23-88 48-205
Passing Yards 127 265
Return Yards 127 120
Completions-Attempts-Int 19-33-2 24-37-2
Sacks-Yards Lost 3--23 2--17
Punts 7 5
Punts-Average 49.7 41.2
Fumbles Lost 2-1 0-0
Penalties - Yards 8-72 5-60
Time of Possession 22:47 35:51

Clemson controlled the LOS in that game, over 200 yds rushing, TOP, etc. I think their OL has come on pretty strong late in the season.
Posted by viceman
Huntsville, AL
Member since Aug 2016
30688 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 10:02 pm to
tOSU has a good defensive line. But they aren't on Bama's level. I honestly don't know how good Clemson's oline is. I am taking a Clemson fan at his word, when he told me that is what is scares him the most about going against Bama.
This post was edited on 1/3/17 at 10:03 pm
Posted by MasterAbe1
Member since Oct 2016
4995 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 10:07 pm to
Not gonna lie, lost you about half way there.
Posted by UF
Florida
Member since Nov 2016
2696 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 10:08 pm to
quote:

I almost want to bookmark this to see if the real game resembles this in any fashion.
Much like reading the Old Farmers almanac at the end of the year.




If he was still alive, Leonard's Loser for this game would be, Clemson.
Posted by viceman
Huntsville, AL
Member since Aug 2016
30688 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 10:14 pm to
quote:

If he was still alive, Leonard's Loser for this game would be, Clemson.


I remember that .
Posted by UF
Florida
Member since Nov 2016
2696 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 10:15 pm to
quote:

A for effort


Posted by TrumpBama2017
Member since Nov 2016
194 posts
Posted on 1/3/17 at 10:17 pm to
You forgot about all the Auburn fans laying in bed crying themselves to sleep.
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