re: the reason alabama will win tomorrow

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both backed into the championship

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And you, among others, STILL don't know the meaning of the phrase "backed into" in reference to sports championships.

To back into a championship, you must be playing a game that will put you in it, LOSE, but still win the championship because the team in contention for it with you also lost.

So, for example, last year, this hypothetical scenario would have been an example of "backing into" the SEC West title: if LSU and Alabama had been tied at 6-1 in the SEC going into their final games with Auburn and Arkansas, but we held the tiebreaker over Alabama because we beat them, we could have backed into the SEC West title. We play Arkansas and lose, but BACK INTO the SECCG when Alabama, with a chance to win the west by beating Auburn, also loses.

In the NC game situation last year, we beat Tennessee to earn a spot in the game. Yes, other teams lost that day when they had a chance to go if they had won, but we didn't lose, so we didn't back into it. If it were "backing into" it any time someone ahead of you lost to let you in, then every national champion that did not start the season #1 or #2 would have "backed into" the national championship.

I know that the widespread ignorance of the correct usage of this phrase is no big deal, but for some reason a pet peeve of mine is people misusing sports euphemisms.

It will all boil down to the Georgia offensive line. A couple of things we know for sure: Saban will stack the box with however many players he needs to stop the run, and he will blitz however many he needs to get pressure on the QB. Therefore, the question is how many will he need to accomplish these objectives, and that will be determined by the Georgia offensive line. If he can stop the run with 7 in the box, and get pressure rushing 4, then Alabama will probably win. If he has to stack 8 or 9 to stop the run, and blitz 5 or 6 to get pressure, then Stafford and the Georgia WRs will be able to exploit the DBs and Georgia will probably win.

The one impressive win Alabama has had so far was against Clemson, who had a young, rebuilt, inexperienced offensive line. If there's a weakness on the Georgia team, the offensive line might be it, so it should be interesting to see how much Saban has to commit to accomplish his primary goals of stopping the run and pressuring the passer. The secret to beating Alabama this year is to be extremely good in the OL, which gives me a lot of confidence in our chances when we play them.

As for the Alabama offense, I don't expect them to put up big numbers, but they should be able to move the ball enough to score a decent point total (maybe around 17-20?). They won't sustain a consistent running game against the Georgia front, and Sarah Jessica will have some pressure on him, but they'll make some plays and score enough points to win IF their defense really shuts Georgia down, but not enough to win if Georgia's OL forces Saban to leave his DBs in dangerous man coverage just to stop Moreno and get any rush on Stafford.

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I hate to admit it, but when i looked at this matchup objectively, i already knew it would be a close game. So something has to tip the scales, and when a game is close i would have to pick the least penalized team in the sec vs the most penalized team in the ncaa.

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The Tide had 334 yards while Georgia had 324. Yet, while Bama only gave up 9 yards to penalties, Georgia gave up 81 yards to penalties.