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The 11 Teams Vying for National Seeds
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:13 pm
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:13 pm
Pick your eight.
Florida
Pros: Consensus #1 in polls, #1 in RPI against the #2 Strength of Schedule. Some big wins: 3 x A&M, 2x Miami, 1 x MSU, 1 x SC. 16-7 against Top 50 teams, 23-1 non-conference.
Cons: None.
Texas A&M
Pros: Leading SEC West, #5 in RPI. 9-5 against top 50 including 3 game sweep of MSU on the road.
Cons: Really none. Do have two sub-100 losses and a #29 SOS
Miss St
Pros: Series wins at LSU, at Florida, at Vanderbilt and 3-1 vs. Ole Miss. 13-10 vs. Top 50
Cons: Currently fifth place in SEC. #11 RPI with weak schedule down the stretch. No room for error. Have to win all three series. A sub-200 loss to Eastern Kentucky cost them two spots in the RPI.
S Carolina
Pros: Leaders of the SEC. #3 RPI
Cons: .500 vs. Top 50, but big opportunity in coming weeks.
Ole Miss
Pros: #7 RPI, series win vs. Louisville and LSU, no bad losses
Cons: #6 in SEC standings, Swept by South Carolina, 1-3 vs. MSU. Need to finish on fire and might need help.
Miami
Pros: #4 RPI, co leaders of the second best conference. 12-7 vs. Top 50
Cons: None really.
Florida St
Pros: #6 RPI, co leaders of the second best conference
Cons: 11-10 vs. Top 50, 15-7 vs. non-ACC teams (worst non conference record among contenders)
Louisville
Pros: #2 RPI, third place in ACC.
Cons: 7-8 road record.
NC State
Pros: #8 RPI, 12-6 vs. Top 50 (only UCSB and Florida has a better winning % vs. Top 50)
Cons: Fifth place in ACC.
Texas Tech
Pros: Leaders of Big 12, 9-5 vs Top 50
Cons: #13 RPI (lowest among contenders), #30 Strength of Schedule (second lowest)
UC Santa Barbara
Pros: #9 RPI, being located on West Coast, 4-1 vs. Top 50
Cons: second place in 8th best conference. 6-9 record on road, #36 SOS (lowest among contenders)
Florida
Pros: Consensus #1 in polls, #1 in RPI against the #2 Strength of Schedule. Some big wins: 3 x A&M, 2x Miami, 1 x MSU, 1 x SC. 16-7 against Top 50 teams, 23-1 non-conference.
Cons: None.
Texas A&M
Pros: Leading SEC West, #5 in RPI. 9-5 against top 50 including 3 game sweep of MSU on the road.
Cons: Really none. Do have two sub-100 losses and a #29 SOS
Miss St
Pros: Series wins at LSU, at Florida, at Vanderbilt and 3-1 vs. Ole Miss. 13-10 vs. Top 50
Cons: Currently fifth place in SEC. #11 RPI with weak schedule down the stretch. No room for error. Have to win all three series. A sub-200 loss to Eastern Kentucky cost them two spots in the RPI.
S Carolina
Pros: Leaders of the SEC. #3 RPI
Cons: .500 vs. Top 50, but big opportunity in coming weeks.
Ole Miss
Pros: #7 RPI, series win vs. Louisville and LSU, no bad losses
Cons: #6 in SEC standings, Swept by South Carolina, 1-3 vs. MSU. Need to finish on fire and might need help.
Miami
Pros: #4 RPI, co leaders of the second best conference. 12-7 vs. Top 50
Cons: None really.
Florida St
Pros: #6 RPI, co leaders of the second best conference
Cons: 11-10 vs. Top 50, 15-7 vs. non-ACC teams (worst non conference record among contenders)
Louisville
Pros: #2 RPI, third place in ACC.
Cons: 7-8 road record.
NC State
Pros: #8 RPI, 12-6 vs. Top 50 (only UCSB and Florida has a better winning % vs. Top 50)
Cons: Fifth place in ACC.
Texas Tech
Pros: Leaders of Big 12, 9-5 vs Top 50
Cons: #13 RPI (lowest among contenders), #30 Strength of Schedule (second lowest)
UC Santa Barbara
Pros: #9 RPI, being located on West Coast, 4-1 vs. Top 50
Cons: second place in 8th best conference. 6-9 record on road, #36 SOS (lowest among contenders)
This post was edited on 5/2/16 at 3:14 pm
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Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:15 pm to anc
1. Florida
2. South Carolina
3. Miami
4. Texas A&M
5. Florida State
6. Mississippi State
7. NC State
8. Texas Tech
2. South Carolina
3. Miami
4. Texas A&M
5. Florida State
6. Mississippi State
7. NC State
8. Texas Tech
This post was edited on 5/2/16 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:16 pm to anc
You can put "in the SEC" for cons, because that's what it's gonna come down to. Somebody will be left out because the NCAA won't give the SEC over half the nat'l seeds.
ETA: I guess 4 is possible, though.
ETA: I guess 4 is possible, though.
This post was edited on 5/2/16 at 3:18 pm
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:17 pm to cbi8
quote:
You can put "in the SEC" for cons, because that's what it's gonna come down to. Somebody will be left out because the NCAA won't give the SEC over half the nat'l seeds.
Yep
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:17 pm to anc
Good work.
Mr. tmc on the Ark posted this (looking at bubble national seed teams, with A&M as a comparison). This focuses on weekend series wins and losses and ignores midweek games.
Mr. tmc on the Ark posted this (looking at bubble national seed teams, with A&M as a comparison). This focuses on weekend series wins and losses and ignores midweek games.
quote:
Texas Aggies 35-9 (5 RPI, 29 SOS)
Top 50 series wins: 11 @MSU (3-0), 15 LSU (2-1), 34 UGA (3-0)
Top 50 series losses: 1 @UF (0-3)
non-Top 50 series losses: none
NOTES: last 3 remaining series are vs top 25 RPI teams. Currently 1st in SECW
UCSB 29-10-1 (9 RPI, 36 SOS)
Top 50 series wins: 39 @LBSU (2-1)
Top 50 series losses: none
non-Top 50 series losses: 86 @CalPoly (0-3), 100 @Oregon (1-2)
non-Top 50 series splits: 74 @Charleston (1-1-1)
NOTES: only one top 100 RPI series left, at home vs Big West leading CSF. 16 scheduled games remaining with no conference tourney
Texas Tech 34-13 (13 RPI, 30 SOS)
Top 50 series wins: 22 @OkieSt (3-0), 23 @TCU (2-1)
Top 50 series losses: 41 CSF (1-2)
Top 50 series splits: 49 @Cal (1-1)
non-Top 50 series losses: 124 Texas (1-2)
NOTES: went 2-1 in HCC in what amounted to a "weekend" series. Leading B12 by 2 games. All 7 remaining games vs 100+ RPI teams
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:19 pm to Farmer1906
What a shame it is that UCSB will get a spot just because they're the only team out west with a pulse.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:23 pm to cbi8
quote:
What a shame it is that UCSB will get a spot just because they're the only team out west with a pulse.
Fullerton will put an end to the UCSB national seed talk in my opinion. They will host a regional, and the Pac 12 champion (Washington or Oregon State) will as well.
These 11, plus Coastal Carolina, the Pac 12 and C-USA Champion leaves two host spots for
Vanderbilt, LSU, Virginia, Oklahoma State, Minnesota. You might go ahead and pencil in Minnesota and give one spot to the other 4.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:24 pm to cbi8
Hopefully an SEC host gets matched with them for super regionals if they get a national seed
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:27 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
Hopefully an SEC host gets matched with them for super regionals if they get a national seed
If they get a national seed, they will be matched against Washington or Oregon State. Got to get at least one West Coast team to Omaha.
If I'm a team like Alabama or Kentucky, I'm hoping to get sent to the Minnesota regional. An SEC team could win there.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:31 pm to anc
Last year it was UCSB vs UCLA (1). Maryland & Virginia came out of it. 
Then they tried to go with OSU vs Missouri St (plains / midwest teams) and then Ark goes and spoils it by beating Missouri St in the supers.
Then like assholes they match up TCU vs A&M and UF vs FSU. Just can't have too many from one state making it to Omaha.
Then they tried to go with OSU vs Missouri St (plains / midwest teams) and then Ark goes and spoils it by beating Missouri St in the supers.
Then like assholes they match up TCU vs A&M and UF vs FSU. Just can't have too many from one state making it to Omaha.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:37 pm to anc
Nice work! Sucks that possibly only 2 SEC teams will end up Nat'l seeds, due to the fact of just being in the SEC.
I'll be optimistic here and say one of the two SEC teams that will be left out will end up hosting a super due to the one of the national seeds losing their regional.
I'll be optimistic here and say one of the two SEC teams that will be left out will end up hosting a super due to the one of the national seeds losing their regional.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:43 pm to TSUNgummybear
quote:
Sucks that possibly only 2 SEC teams will end up Nat'l seeds, due to the fact of just being in the SEC.
Interesting. Unless someone just really chokes at the end, I don't see the SEC and ACC getting less than 3 each.
Mississippi State and NC State are the fourth teams from each of those conferences, and probably more deserving than Texas Tech and UCSB, but I can't imagine any scenario where the SEC just gets two. If South Carolina or A&M just flopped, State would just move up from the bubble.
My thoughts are that Texas Tech will get slot #8. The SEC (Florida, A&M, SC) and ACC (Miami, FSU, Louisville/NC State) have three locks each. The last spot is between Mississippi State, Louisville/NC State, Ole Miss and UCSB.
National Seed Locks
Florida, South Carolina, Florida State, Miami
Almost Locked
Texas A&M, Lousville/NC State series winner
Racing Toward the Door
Texas Tech, Louisville/NC State series loser, Mississippi State, UC Santa Barbara
In the Hallway, but Needs Some Help
Ole Miss (I simply see no way Ole Miss could be a national seed over MSU unless MSU flops at the end, but Ole Miss should host)
Regional Host Lock
Coastal Carolina, Southern Miss/Rice, Washington/Oregon State
Last Two Regional Hosts
Vanderbilt, LSU, Virginia, Oklahoma State, Minnesota
This post was edited on 5/2/16 at 3:54 pm
Posted on 5/2/16 at 4:01 pm to anc
Great analysis
Posted on 5/2/16 at 4:19 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
i just see no way we are not a national seed projected right now. if we lose any of the remaining series i could see that changing. however with the hardest part of our schedule behind and seems as we only lost one series all year we should be good.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 4:20 pm to anc
This is a solid thread by all. 
Posted on 5/2/16 at 4:32 pm to MsState of mind
quote:
i just see no way we are not a national seed projected right now. if we lose any of the remaining series i could see that changing. however with the hardest part of our schedule behind and seems as we only lost one series all year we should be good.
I agree. At this point you cannot leave out any of the SEC's top four.
However things change quickly. A&M could finish 6-3 with series wins over LSU, MSU, USC, VAN, & OM and lock in the #1 overall seed. Or A&M could go 3-6, finish 2nd in the west, and miss out on a national seed all together. I think the line is that thin and with A&M's ridiculously tough finishing schedule it gets amplified.
We're not even talking about Vandy. They have UF & A&M left on their schedule they could win both and earn a NS.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 5:03 pm to anc
The committee has never given a conference 4 national seeds. Last year the committee passed on 5 RPI Texas A&M, 8 Florida State, and 9 Vanderbilt to go with lesser RPI teams (11 TCU, 12 Illinois, and 14 Mizzou St) to avoid giving even 3 to a conference. If it's even remotely conceivable, the SEC won't get 4.
So if it's only 3, imo the biggest factors for SEC teams right now is winning their division or having Florida printed on their jerseys. Failing one of those and you are not a lock.
So if it's only 3, imo the biggest factors for SEC teams right now is winning their division or having Florida printed on their jerseys. Failing one of those and you are not a lock.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 5:17 pm to tmc94
This will be the first year that a league will get four national seeds, and the SEC will deserve it. South Carolina and Florida are locks. Unless Miss. State stumbles badly in their final three series, they deserve a national seed as well. Right now, A & M would be the fourth national seed, but they have a brutal finishing schedule: Vandy, South Carolina and Ole Miss.
If they win all three of their final series, they will lock up the fourth national seed. But, if they should stumble, and Ole Miss takes the series in College Station, then OM will get the fourth national seed.
Otherwise, I see Ole Miss being a regional host with either Vandy or LSU getting a sixth host bid. To get that sixth host site, LSU would have to finish strong and probably take the series against Florida.
The SEC is so strong this year that it deserves six host sites, four of them national. The ACC should also get at least four or five.
UC-Santa Barbara does not deserve a national seed, but they will get a host site. Why not national? They have played exactly 5 games against Top 50 RPI teams, going 4-1. By comparison: Florida State has played 21 Top 50 RPI games, going 11-10. Ole Miss has played 18 Top 50 RPI games, going 9-9. A & M has played 14 Top 50 RPI games, going 9-5. UCSB does not have a national seed resume, only a location out West going for it. Pretty weak argument.
If they win all three of their final series, they will lock up the fourth national seed. But, if they should stumble, and Ole Miss takes the series in College Station, then OM will get the fourth national seed.
Otherwise, I see Ole Miss being a regional host with either Vandy or LSU getting a sixth host bid. To get that sixth host site, LSU would have to finish strong and probably take the series against Florida.
The SEC is so strong this year that it deserves six host sites, four of them national. The ACC should also get at least four or five.
UC-Santa Barbara does not deserve a national seed, but they will get a host site. Why not national? They have played exactly 5 games against Top 50 RPI teams, going 4-1. By comparison: Florida State has played 21 Top 50 RPI games, going 11-10. Ole Miss has played 18 Top 50 RPI games, going 9-9. A & M has played 14 Top 50 RPI games, going 9-5. UCSB does not have a national seed resume, only a location out West going for it. Pretty weak argument.
This post was edited on 5/2/16 at 5:19 pm
Posted on 5/2/16 at 5:28 pm to sewaneerebel
quote:
UC-Santa Barbara does not deserve a national seed, but they will get a host site. Why not national?
deserves got nothing to do with it
The committee has a very long history of fixing what they perceive to be regional RPI bias. The result is Northern and Western teams always are seeded up.
Last year Missouri State played 8 top 50 games all year (6-2) and got a seed with a final RPI of 14. Illinois was about the same.
UCSB has 4 left so they'll end up with 9. If they win the Big West they are likely going to be a national seed, deserving or no.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 6:01 pm to tmc94
I agree with you. It's all about this idea of 'growing the game' and spreading it out. Yeah, right. And there is definitely a 'dilute the SEC' thing going on with the NCAA all the time. I think the SEC and the ACC should get all eight national seeds this year. This might be the year that happens.
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