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re: SEC West! 7 Teams Bowling! Is It Possible?
Posted on 8/23/13 at 12:34 pm to Elleshoe
Posted on 8/23/13 at 12:34 pm to Elleshoe
quote:+
Arkansas won't win 5 games
Agreed. No offense to Arkansas, but they've been recruiting toward a pass heavy wide open offense for years. Now they have a coach that loves run first, second and third type of offense.
It'll take a couple of years to get Beliema type players in there. I think he'll do well, though, and bring Arkansas back to relevance if they will be patient.
0
Posted on 8/23/13 at 12:35 pm to randomways
quote:
Not by much. It's still the top 3, then the rest. The only difference is somebody replacing Arkansas in joining LSU and Bama. My guess is Ole Miss.
Wow. Not A&M?
Posted on 8/23/13 at 12:44 pm to scrooster
The odds against it are pretty long, particularly when the conference is producing elite teams that dominate non-conference play. The best chance would actually be highly tied to self-cannibalization scenarios.
The SEC has posted winning percentages of .857,.855, .793, and .828 in non-conference play the past 4 years; even giving the SEC a major bump over the best non-conference performance n history, to the .892ish mark shows why it is so hard to get 7 teams into a bowl.
The West will play 28 Non-conference games; if it goes 25-3, there will still need to be 17 conference wins distributed among the teams reasonably equitably to reach the mark. 17 doesn't seem so bad, until you delve into the zero sum nature of in-division conference play; 6 of the 8 SEC games each team has, would be either/or propositions; if one team is excellent, or two or three teams pretty good, it starts to skew fast--
SEC Conference play scenario:
Alabama goes 8-0
LSU goes 7-1 (loss to Alabama)
TAMU goes 6-2 (losses to Alabama and LSU)--
It means that Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and MSU are essentially reduced to 5 game slates, to pick up between 2 and 3 wins, depending on how the 3 non-conference losses within the division are allocated.
It seems simple, until you realize that of the remaining games, each will have head to head battles with another. 12 of those 20 games are essentially locked up among the 4. The most equitable pattern of getting to 6 wins for each team would be 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, and 1-2 splits among each other.
That'd logically lead two teams, at minimum, fighting to split their games against SEC East opponents, to pick up a 6th win-- more likely, 3 teams, as the aggregation of non-conference losses is more likely to happen at the bottom of the division than at the top of it.
Could it happen? It isn't outside the realm of possibility-- but it requires a historically unprecedented non-conference performance, paired with a completely muddled middle, and the domination of cross divisional play.
The more mathematically plausible scenario would be for a division to stack up with 1 team that goes 5-3, 5 teams that go 4-4 in conference, and one team that goes 3-5 -- then the burdens on non-conference performance would be immensely lighter, and the FCS/small FBS bowl division scheduling practices would make 7 teams to a bowl from one division decidedly more likely.
The SEC has posted winning percentages of .857,.855, .793, and .828 in non-conference play the past 4 years; even giving the SEC a major bump over the best non-conference performance n history, to the .892ish mark shows why it is so hard to get 7 teams into a bowl.
The West will play 28 Non-conference games; if it goes 25-3, there will still need to be 17 conference wins distributed among the teams reasonably equitably to reach the mark. 17 doesn't seem so bad, until you delve into the zero sum nature of in-division conference play; 6 of the 8 SEC games each team has, would be either/or propositions; if one team is excellent, or two or three teams pretty good, it starts to skew fast--
SEC Conference play scenario:
Alabama goes 8-0
LSU goes 7-1 (loss to Alabama)
TAMU goes 6-2 (losses to Alabama and LSU)--
It means that Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and MSU are essentially reduced to 5 game slates, to pick up between 2 and 3 wins, depending on how the 3 non-conference losses within the division are allocated.
It seems simple, until you realize that of the remaining games, each will have head to head battles with another. 12 of those 20 games are essentially locked up among the 4. The most equitable pattern of getting to 6 wins for each team would be 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, and 1-2 splits among each other.
That'd logically lead two teams, at minimum, fighting to split their games against SEC East opponents, to pick up a 6th win-- more likely, 3 teams, as the aggregation of non-conference losses is more likely to happen at the bottom of the division than at the top of it.
Could it happen? It isn't outside the realm of possibility-- but it requires a historically unprecedented non-conference performance, paired with a completely muddled middle, and the domination of cross divisional play.
The more mathematically plausible scenario would be for a division to stack up with 1 team that goes 5-3, 5 teams that go 4-4 in conference, and one team that goes 3-5 -- then the burdens on non-conference performance would be immensely lighter, and the FCS/small FBS bowl division scheduling practices would make 7 teams to a bowl from one division decidedly more likely.
Posted on 8/23/13 at 12:46 pm to DawgsLife
quote:
Wow. Not A&M?
Who?
Posted on 8/23/13 at 12:47 pm to BoardReader
tl;dr 
Posted on 8/23/13 at 12:57 pm to TaxmanMSU
Only happens if you have parity in the league. When you have the top half just beating up on each other and dominating the bottom half, your not going to have enough OOC wins to get those bottom half teams into bowl games.
Posted on 8/23/13 at 1:29 pm to TideGolfer
quote:
TideGolfer
SEC West! 7 Teams Bowling! Is It Possible?
Has the east or west ever sent every team to a bowl?
It could happen.
Bama - shoo-in
LSU - probable shoo-in
A&M - probable shoo-in
Ole Miss - very possible
Miss State - possible
Arkansas - darkhorse
Auburn - darker horse
The East could be equally strong. Only UK will not be in bowl contention come December. Tennessee and Vanderbilt are possibles. Mizzou is darkhorse.
Posted on 8/23/13 at 1:30 pm to MetryTyger
quote:
Ole Miss - very possible
Miss State - possible
Arkansas - darkhorse
Auburn - darker horse
Posted on 8/23/13 at 1:36 pm to parkjas2001
quote:
parkjas2001
SEC West! 7 Teams Bowling! Is It Possible?
quote:
Ole Miss - very possible
Miss State - possible
Arkansas - darkhorse
Auburn - darker horse
A&M was the darkest of horses last year..
Malzahn could be this year's Sumlin....
Posted on 8/23/13 at 2:03 pm to MetryTyger
quote:
A&M was the darkest of horses last year..
Malzahn could be this year's Sumlin....
That was more likely before Malzahn moved their Johnny Manziel in-the-making to safety, presumably on the principle that he could score more if he had a chance at pick-6s for his own team rather than the other team.
This post was edited on 8/23/13 at 2:04 pm
Posted on 8/23/13 at 2:04 pm to TideGolfer
no not possible because auburn is going to be turrible
Posted on 8/23/13 at 2:05 pm to randomways
quote:
That was more likely before Malzahn moved their Johnny Manziel in-the-making to safety, presumably on the principle that he could score more if he had a chance at pick-6s for his own team rather than the other team.
Had to work too hard to get to that joke. I got bored at the comma.
Posted on 8/23/13 at 2:07 pm to NorthGwinnettTiger
Indeed. Punctuation has given many of your ilk problems.
Posted on 8/23/13 at 2:12 pm to NorthGwinnettTiger
UPig's only chance to win an SEC game this year is vs Auburn and State- and I'm not sure they can beat either. I'm glad State gets them late in the year when they are down and defeated.
Auburn has its hands full also, but I think they get to 6-6 (2-6)
Auburn has its hands full also, but I think they get to 6-6 (2-6)
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