re: SEC Week 1 Opening Lines: Best Bet?

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Georgia-1 @ Clemson O/U 68
LSU-4 Vs. TCU O/U 44

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Georgia and LSU look like good plays in these two games.

Question is do you?

Bama is 18.5 point fav , with an over under of 46. That doesn't add up. Especially with VTs issues at tailback.

If Bama is up by 3tds late, expect resting 1 team def, with experience time for backups, which means garbage time and that's when the line gets muddy. Ie. Ga Southern, GSU, etc.

Ms St is more of a gut pick, OSU is favored to win the B12, but you know there will be talk about the trash talk from the B12 on how the SEC is top heavy, and this is a chance to see who's right . Mullen is undefeated in openers , I think he'll have state ready.

As of today Hill is back, take the line now cause it will go up. You know when a trap game is not one? When every one talks that its one , with a month to go. LSU wins this easy.

Sounds more like you bet with your heart not your head, or your not very good. And totals are too cloudy, lines are easier. NFL is better , cause you know more what you have.
Totals in Non Conf. Games are always a bad play.

Oh , and the Auburn game. Play it in 4 weeks , I like better than week 1 , AU traditionally has issues with Non Conf openers, and this game looks like a train wreck. Something like 14-3, 14-6. Ton of questions.

I think it adds up about right if you expect VT to score no more than ten. It's a sensible expectation too when you consider what Bama's D and Saban have been able to prove on that side of the ball. Logan Thomas doesn't get enough help to score two TDs, in my opinion. McCarron should have no problem running the show against a depleted secondary. I assume Yeldon will get his as well. Bama covered many large lines last season. If there's "garbage time" in this game, then the cover should be well in hand.

MS St. is coming off an inflated season record wise. Their first 8 were cake. They got their asses whooped by OM last season. OK St. scores in more bunches. They should have no problem putting up 40+ against a D replacing a top corner. I like Ok St. to travel to Jerry World better. I'll take Gundy over Mullen.

I like the points in what I think will be a last possession game. More of a gut pick plus the fact I think Vegas wants you to lay the points. I don't think I'll play it.

I've done well with totals in the past. SEC on SEC is what I'm best at, not as hot with non conference match ups. I have a nice hunch on Ok St. though.

I see your point in Bama, and if this was a top 10 match up a lot of hype , it might play well. But this game us an after thought. UGA/Clemson is later, it sits kinda weird at 530 kick. Not much interest , other than fan base. I think it's just a Flat game got Bama , too much in the windshield for them. Line gets screwed IMO.

I think the line is a trap in itself in TCU LSU. Could be wrong though, I think it gets pretty ugly late.

The Trap if there is one on the LSU/TCU is on TCU.

Take Bama first half. should be 28-0 at half.

If you watched VT's spring game Thomas threw 2 pick sixes in the first quarter.

One was a 99yrd return

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Whoever said wait until it gets to LSU -3 is right.

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That would be me

4 is still somewhat of a key number, but you're right. If you ever see a TON of money coming in on a team yet the line doesn't move, it's generally all public money. Public money doesn't move lines drastically if at all in some places.

For those new to betting, 3 is the most common "key" number. Meaning most games tend to be decided by 3 points. The next key number is 7. After that, you have numbers like 6,10,14.

If you want to bet a team that is -7.5, either wait for that number to fall to -7 or -6.5 or don't bet at all. (reason being, if that team wins by 7, you still lose your bet by -0.5)

Conversely, if you see a line like +3.5 or +7.5, that is generally the better bet (BEWARE: Some books like to open with lines like this to entice betters to a side Vegas doesn't think will cover.) This is why I generally like to wait closer to gametime before placing bets to avoid things like that and get a feel for how the line is moving.)

Bet numbers, not teams.

toledo at Florida

We may not have half of our offense for that game and Toledo can put points up. I doubt we win by 23 tbh.

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If you ever see a TON of money coming in on a team yet the line doesn't move, it's generally all public money. Public money doesn't move lines drastically if at all in some places.

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A TON of money would move the line regardless of where it comes from, but unless you work for a book you don't have access to the amount of money on one team or the other anyway.

I'm assuming you don't work for a book and are talking about percentage of bets, not money.

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UL Lafayette @ Arkansas-10.5 O/U 58

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Washington St. @ Auburn-15.5 O/U 49

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