Started By
Message
re: SEC FB Returning Production Defense SP+
Posted on 2/15/24 at 2:31 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
Posted on 2/15/24 at 2:31 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:
Yeah, consider LSU. #26 at 71% from a unit that ranked 110 in ypg. Is returning production a good thing in that case?
This one at least is a good example of showing that it means something, but it is only one piece of the puzzle. However, you at least know the guys there are the same guys there last year that put together those stats in the same league. Then it comes down to "how much will they improve?" along with "are they talented"?
When teams lose 90% of their roster to the portal/NFL after a coaching change and replace it with 9 portal guys.........they are basically turning over the entire defense. But the current returning production formula Connelly uses treats all those incoming guys from other places as if they were at A&M the year before.
2
Posted on 2/15/24 at 2:31 pm to OU Guy
wait OU is suddenly going to learn to play defense because they're joining the SEC?
Posted on 2/15/24 at 2:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
When teams lose 90% of their roster to the portal/NFL after a coaching change and replace it with 9 portal guys.........they are basically turning over the entire defense.
Seems like Alabama turned over a lot of the defense a few times under Saban without dropping very far. When you have a system, and the coaches in place to implement the system, turnover means less.
quote:
But the current returning production formula Connelly uses treats all those incoming guys from other places as if they were at A&M the year before.
Posted on 2/15/24 at 2:39 pm to SummerOfGeorge
A&M "returns" 67% of their production (#35 nationally).
Prior Year Leaders
Tackles
1. LB Edgerrin Cooper (gone)
2. LB Taurean York (returns)
3. DB Demani Richardson (gone)
4. DB Bryce Anderson (returns)
5. DB Jacoby Matthews (returns)
6. DB Josh DeBerry (gone)
7. DL Walter Nolan (gone)
8. DL Fadil Diggs (gone)
9. DL Shermar Turner (returns)
10. LB Chris Russell (gone)
11. DL McKinnley Jackson (gone)
12. DB Sam Matthews (gone)
Tackles for Loss
1. LB Edgerrin Cooper (gone)
2. DL Fadil Diggs (gone)
3. DL Shermar Turner (returns)
4. DL Walter Nolen (gone)
5. LB Taurean York (returns)
6. DB Bryce Anderson (returns)
7. DL McKinnley Jackson (gone)
8. DB Josh DeBerry (gone)
9. DL Isaiah Raikes (gone)
10. DB Demani Richardson (gone)
11. DL Albert Regis (returns)
12. DB Sam Matthews (gone)
So A&M returns 4 of their 12 leading tacklers and 4 of their 12 leading TFL guys and they are Top 4 in returning production in the league? Really?
That's silly.
Prior Year Leaders
Tackles
1. LB Edgerrin Cooper (gone)
2. LB Taurean York (returns)
3. DB Demani Richardson (gone)
4. DB Bryce Anderson (returns)
5. DB Jacoby Matthews (returns)
6. DB Josh DeBerry (gone)
7. DL Walter Nolan (gone)
8. DL Fadil Diggs (gone)
9. DL Shermar Turner (returns)
10. LB Chris Russell (gone)
11. DL McKinnley Jackson (gone)
12. DB Sam Matthews (gone)
Tackles for Loss
1. LB Edgerrin Cooper (gone)
2. DL Fadil Diggs (gone)
3. DL Shermar Turner (returns)
4. DL Walter Nolen (gone)
5. LB Taurean York (returns)
6. DB Bryce Anderson (returns)
7. DL McKinnley Jackson (gone)
8. DB Josh DeBerry (gone)
9. DL Isaiah Raikes (gone)
10. DB Demani Richardson (gone)
11. DL Albert Regis (returns)
12. DB Sam Matthews (gone)
So A&M returns 4 of their 12 leading tacklers and 4 of their 12 leading TFL guys and they are Top 4 in returning production in the league? Really?
That's silly.
Posted on 2/15/24 at 2:40 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:
Seems like Alabama turned over a lot of the defense a few times under Saban without dropping very far. When you have a system, and the coaches in place to implement the system, turnover means less.
Yes, agree. And his overall SP+ formula accounted for all that, because the other part of the equation that mattered as much as returning production was recruited talent.
The transfer portal, especially with teams that are making mass changes in personal after coaching changes, makes it extremely difficult to predict with a formula.
Posted on 2/15/24 at 2:44 pm to OU Guy
Bad defenses have a lot of returners.
Posted on 2/15/24 at 4:19 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
The transfer portal, especially with teams that are making mass changes in personal after coaching changes, makes it extremely difficult to predict with a formula.
Yep. The transfer portal is going to change college football like college basketball changed in the 90s. No more watching good players develop over 4 years. I haven’t really followed MBB since the 90s, I’m afraid it’s going to be the same with football.
Posted on 2/15/24 at 4:56 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:
No more watching good players develop over 4 years. I haven’t really followed MBB since the 90s, I’m afraid it’s going to be the same with football.
And it's worse in football because it's such a developmental sport.
Posted on 2/15/24 at 5:30 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
So A&M returns 4 of their 12 leading tacklers and 4 of their 12 leading TFL guys and they are Top 4 in returning production in the league? Really?
It is accurate. Having players from the portal returning with experience no matter where they’ve played is returning college production vs a player starting with no college experience whatsoever.
I get that playing in division 2a, the big 10, big 12, etc…is not the same as in the SEC, but it’s better experience than someone who’s only experience is in high school. You can see their PFF grades to get a more accurate picture.
So the term returning production has to do with returning college production, and it’s not tied to the school they are currently playing at.
Whether it translates to success on the field is another matter entirely.
This post was edited on 2/15/24 at 6:21 pm
Posted on 2/15/24 at 8:11 pm to LSUNWO1988
Yeah, 2nd best at worst.
Posted on 2/15/24 at 9:27 pm to OU Guy
Buckle up boys. 
This post was edited on 2/15/24 at 9:28 pm
Page 2 of 2
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News