SEC Bubble Watch 2/23/17

Locks: Florida, Kentucky

Teams who should be in: South Carolina, Arkansas

There's been a bunch of talk about South Carolina falling back onto the bubble with their recent play. They're not on the bubble, or even close, really. If they go 1-2 over their next three, we can revisit, but they're safe for now. And in all likelihood, the only scenario where they'd realistically get left out is losing out.

Arkansas has played their way above the bubble with their recent stretch. They'd also likely have to lose out to miss the tourney, although 1-2 would have them sweating.

Teams on the bubble: Vanderbilt, Georgia

Vanderbilt 15-13 (8-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 2

4-6 vs. Top 50, 10-12 vs. Top 100

Best wins: at Florida, at Arkansas, Iowa State, South Carolina

Worst losses: Missouri

This team has one of the most impressive slates of wins of any bubble team. The problem is the record. Teams typically don't get bids unless they're four or more games over .500, and Vandy is unlikely to get to that point with games at Kentucky and vs. Florida still on the schedule. Finishing 17-14 in the regular season would probably require two wins in the conference tourney to get serious consideration.

Georgia: 16-12 (7-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 15

1-7 vs. Top 50, 8-11 vs. Top 100

Best wins: at Tennessee, Vanderbilt, at Ole Miss, Georgia Tech

Worst losses: at Oakland

Georgia is a team that's made its living beating up on bubble teams. This is a team that feels like it's better than its resume, considering it's been so close against UF and Kentucky. The Top 50 record is bad, but teams have made the tourney with similar records. I see two paths to an at-large bid for this team: win the next three games and then win one or two in the conference tourney, or go 2-1 the next two games and then get a win over Florida or Kentucky in the conference tourney.

Longshots but not out yet: Tennessee, Ole Miss

Tennessee: 15-13 (7-8), RPI: 64, SOS: 8

2-9 vs. Top 50, 8-12 vs. Top 100

Best wins: Kentucky, Kansas State, Georgia Tech, at Vanderbilt

Worst losses: at Mississippi State

Similar resume to Vanderbilt, albeit with slightly worse wins and slightly worse computer numbers. Like Vanderbilt, they're going to need to pad their record. Unlike Vanderbilt, this team absolutely cannot suffer another loss and stay in the conversation. They need to win their next three and a couple in the conference tourney to jump back into realistic bubble discussion.

Ole Miss 17-11 (8-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 48

1-8 vs. Top 50, 4-11 vs. Top 100

Best wins: at Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Auburn (x2), Memphis

Worst losses: no bad losses

They've put together a pretty solid record by beating the teams that they should. They just haven't beaten any good teams. They need to win their next three. That would include a win over South Carolina, and that might be enough to catapult them in the discussion. This year, with a bunch of teams like Clemson and Vanderbilt on the bubble, a solid record and computer profile might be enough to sneak them into the tournament.