I think the most interesting story in here is that 6 of 7 SEC West teams have expected wins between 4 and 5 wins.

Goes to show you how important every game is going to be. As stated above, expect the unexpected.

Problem is..
I think the SEC West teams likely knock each other out of the playoff. Very likely the SEC West champ is a 3-loss team that goes to Atlanta due to tiebreakers.

The SEC East looks pretty clean cut: winner of Georgia and Tennessee will be the winner. I think most would agree with that.

Georgia playing Auburn and Alabama and Alabama playing Georgia and Tennessee means the "should-be" favorites also play the toughfest schedules.
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ESPN and sbnation are the same entity

SB Nation is not ESPN. Owned by Vox. Even if it was, the methodologies are different.

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Too much emphasis is being placed on Home field

Difficult to adjust for H/A. Basically my adjustment equates to a 2-3 difference in point spread for the home team. Alabama/Georgia is pretty close to a toss up on a neutral field; a toss-up at Georgia; a slightly strong Bama win in Tuscaloosa. That seems about right to me. It's #1 vs. #3. What would you expect a neutral point spread to be? Bama isn't an NFL team.

Anyway, projected wins is a better thing to look at. Not adjusting for H/A doesn't change it too much because the Home games are adjusted upward almost equally to the downward adjustment for Away games. But for a couple neutral games, teams play 4 home and 4 away games diminishing the effect. The most important thing is how many games are near toss-ups or not. Like I said, Bama playing both UGA and UT puts them at a disadvantage.

This post was edited on 8/22/15 at 12:35 pm