Started By
Message
SEC 2015 Forecast.. Going to be a wild one!
Posted on 8/22/15 at 9:45 am
Posted on 8/22/15 at 9:45 am
These are based on..
A. ESPN's positions rankings
B. ESPN's Football Power Index
C. SB Nation's Projection
D. Ranking based on CBS NFL projections
Wins/Losses and Favorite/Underdog are based on game-by-game predictions with slight advantages to Home teams. Texas A&M and Florida are given even smaller advantages against Arkansas (in Dallas) and Georgia (in Jacksonville).
Overall Power Ranking (.50 is an average SEC team)
1. Alabama 87.3
2. LSU 84.1
3. Georgia 83.6
4. Auburn 77.0
5. Ole Miss 74.8
6. Tennessee 72.1
7. Arkansas 65.3
8. Texas A&M 56.9
9. Missouri 38.9
10. Miss State 37.5
11. Florida 33.8
12. Carolina 22.7
13. Kentucky 8.8
14. Vanderbilt 2.1
SEC EAST PROJECTED WINS/LOSSES
1. Georgia-- 5.71 wins / 2.29 losses
2. Tennessee-- 5.33 wins / 2.67 losses
3. Missouri-- 4.47 wins / 3.53
4. Florida-- 3.87 wins / 4.13 losses
5. Carolina-- 3.51 wins / 4.49 losses
6. Kentucky-- 1.87 wins / 6.13 losses
7. Vanderbilt-- 0.54 wins / 7.46 losses
SEC WEST PROJECTED WINS/LOSSES
1. LSU-- 4.94 wins / 3.06 losses
2. Ole Miss-- 4.81 wins / 3.19 losses
3. Auburn-- 4.62 wins / 3.38 losses
4. Alabama-- 4.54 wins / 3.46 losses
5. Texas A&M-- 4.52 wins / 3.48 losses
6. Arkansas-- 4.07 wins / 3.93 losses
7. Miss State-- 3.41 wins / 4.59 losses
SEC EAST PROJECTED FAVORITE/UNDERDOG
1. Tennessee-- 7 FAV / 1 UND (Bama)
2. Georgia-- 6 FAV / 2 UND (AUB; TEN)
3. Missouri-- 5 FAV / 3 UND (ARK; GA; TEN)
4. Florida-- 3 FAV (CAR; KY; VAN) / 5 UND
5. Carolina-- 2 FAV (KY; VAN) / 6 UND
6. Kentucky-- 1 FAV (VAN) / 7 UND
7. Vanderbilt-- 0 FAV / 8 UND
SEC WEST PROJECTED FAVORITE/UNDERDOG
1. Alabama--6 FAV / 2 UND (GA; AUB)
2. Ole Miss--6 FAV / 2 UND (BAM; AUB)
3. LSU--6 FAV / 2 UND (BAM; Miss)
4. Auburn--5 FAV / 3 UND (LSU;A&M;Ark)
5. Arkansas--4 FAV / 4 UND (Ten; Bama; LSU; Miss)
6. Texas A&M-- 4 FAV / 4 UND (Bama; Miss; Ark; LSU)
7. Miss State-- 1 FAV (Ky) / 6 UND
*Worth noting that Texas A&M is a huge swing team. Games against Arkansas, Alabama, and Auburn are all basically toss-ups.
A. ESPN's positions rankings
B. ESPN's Football Power Index
C. SB Nation's Projection
D. Ranking based on CBS NFL projections
Wins/Losses and Favorite/Underdog are based on game-by-game predictions with slight advantages to Home teams. Texas A&M and Florida are given even smaller advantages against Arkansas (in Dallas) and Georgia (in Jacksonville).
Overall Power Ranking (.50 is an average SEC team)
1. Alabama 87.3
2. LSU 84.1
3. Georgia 83.6
4. Auburn 77.0
5. Ole Miss 74.8
6. Tennessee 72.1
7. Arkansas 65.3
8. Texas A&M 56.9
9. Missouri 38.9
10. Miss State 37.5
11. Florida 33.8
12. Carolina 22.7
13. Kentucky 8.8
14. Vanderbilt 2.1
SEC EAST PROJECTED WINS/LOSSES
1. Georgia-- 5.71 wins / 2.29 losses
2. Tennessee-- 5.33 wins / 2.67 losses
3. Missouri-- 4.47 wins / 3.53
4. Florida-- 3.87 wins / 4.13 losses
5. Carolina-- 3.51 wins / 4.49 losses
6. Kentucky-- 1.87 wins / 6.13 losses
7. Vanderbilt-- 0.54 wins / 7.46 losses
SEC WEST PROJECTED WINS/LOSSES
1. LSU-- 4.94 wins / 3.06 losses
2. Ole Miss-- 4.81 wins / 3.19 losses
3. Auburn-- 4.62 wins / 3.38 losses
4. Alabama-- 4.54 wins / 3.46 losses
5. Texas A&M-- 4.52 wins / 3.48 losses
6. Arkansas-- 4.07 wins / 3.93 losses
7. Miss State-- 3.41 wins / 4.59 losses
SEC EAST PROJECTED FAVORITE/UNDERDOG
1. Tennessee-- 7 FAV / 1 UND (Bama)
2. Georgia-- 6 FAV / 2 UND (AUB; TEN)
3. Missouri-- 5 FAV / 3 UND (ARK; GA; TEN)
4. Florida-- 3 FAV (CAR; KY; VAN) / 5 UND
5. Carolina-- 2 FAV (KY; VAN) / 6 UND
6. Kentucky-- 1 FAV (VAN) / 7 UND
7. Vanderbilt-- 0 FAV / 8 UND
SEC WEST PROJECTED FAVORITE/UNDERDOG
1. Alabama--6 FAV / 2 UND (GA; AUB)
2. Ole Miss--6 FAV / 2 UND (BAM; AUB)
3. LSU--6 FAV / 2 UND (BAM; Miss)
4. Auburn--5 FAV / 3 UND (LSU;A&M;Ark)
5. Arkansas--4 FAV / 4 UND (Ten; Bama; LSU; Miss)
6. Texas A&M-- 4 FAV / 4 UND (Bama; Miss; Ark; LSU)
7. Miss State-- 1 FAV (Ky) / 6 UND
*Worth noting that Texas A&M is a huge swing team. Games against Arkansas, Alabama, and Auburn are all basically toss-ups.
8
Posted on 8/22/15 at 9:50 am to BornKjun
quote:
13. Kentucky 8.8
14. Vanderbilt 2.1
Flying below the radar, they will never see what hit them.
Posted on 8/22/15 at 9:55 am to BornKjun
quote:
1. Alabama 87.3
quote:
SEC WEST PROJECTED WINS/LOSSES
1. LSU-- 4.94 wins / 3.06 losses
2. Ole Miss-- 4.81 wins / 3.19 losses
3. Auburn-- 4.62 wins / 3.38 losses
4. Alabama-- 4.54 wins / 3.46 losses
5. Texas A&M-- 4.52 wins / 3.48 losses
6. Arkansas-- 4.07 wins / 3.93 losses
7. Miss State-- 3.41 wins / 4.59 losses
They probably should have realized at this point that there was a hiccup in their methodology. Instead, they forged ahead. Their own results aren't supported by....their own results.
I don't blame an LSU fan for finding this tidbit and...
This post was edited on 8/22/15 at 9:59 am
Posted on 8/22/15 at 10:00 am to Robert Duval
Not too bright are you Robert Duval?
Alabama plays the two best teams in the East: Tennessee and Georgia.
LSU, for instance, plays Carolina and Florida. Both are likely pretty easy wins.
Almost all the win projections for SEC West teams fall between 4-5 wins.
Quick probability lesson: A team that plays 10 teams is said to have a 75% chance of winning each game. They might be favorite in all 10 but expected wins will be 7.5.
Alabama plays the two best teams in the East: Tennessee and Georgia.
LSU, for instance, plays Carolina and Florida. Both are likely pretty easy wins.
Almost all the win projections for SEC West teams fall between 4-5 wins.
Quick probability lesson: A team that plays 10 teams is said to have a 75% chance of winning each game. They might be favorite in all 10 but expected wins will be 7.5.
This post was edited on 8/22/15 at 10:05 am
Posted on 8/22/15 at 10:09 am to BornKjun
They will ridicule you because they are terrified to come out of their dark holes of ignorance and into the bright, sultry light of the truth.
Posted on 8/22/15 at 10:14 am to BornKjun
Posted on 8/22/15 at 10:15 am to BornKjun
No one should count Ws before they hatch. LSU could easily be beaten by UF...and Vandy can beat UGA and UK could beat UF....there isn't a huge separation between 1st and 7th in either division.
Of course "on paper" there are some favorites...but games played on grass. Remember that USCe was ranked in top ten last season....folks forgot to check how many defensive players had left.
This what makes college football so great...the unknown. Everyone forgets that a lot of teams have warts. UGA, LSU, UF, UA, Vandy, Ole Miss, USCe all have some form of qb issues.
Expect the unexpected in 2015.
Of course "on paper" there are some favorites...but games played on grass. Remember that USCe was ranked in top ten last season....folks forgot to check how many defensive players had left.
This what makes college football so great...the unknown. Everyone forgets that a lot of teams have warts. UGA, LSU, UF, UA, Vandy, Ole Miss, USCe all have some form of qb issues.
Expect the unexpected in 2015.
Posted on 8/22/15 at 10:15 am to BornKjun
quote:
BornKjun
I think you may have over-complicated this. I don't doubt that they can plug in legitimate numbers and end up with results that say that Alabama will be the best team, yet be in 4th place (wins/losses) in the West. But the results are tabulated in apples/oranges. If they were onto something with their analysis, the apples and oranges would have more/less lined up.
As you know, it's all speculation. When your speculative tools give you results that 1. disagree with each other and 2. disagree with your own sensibilities 3. disgrees with basically all expert opinions, there is a good chance that you got junk in=junk out.
You are one of those guys that can master spreadsheets, algorithms etc...but when it comes to application, the rubber meeting the road, you fail to connect the dots. I know lots of guys like you. I won't say that you aren't bright. Most guys like you are pretty smart...but you over-estimate the value of your conceptual intelligence and under-estimate the anchor of your lack of common sense.
Posted on 8/22/15 at 10:17 am to reel_gator8
quote:
Vandy can beat UGA
me>
>reel_gator8Posted on 8/22/15 at 10:19 am to BornKjun
quote:
Not too bright are you Robert Duval?
I think he is the poor cousin, could not afford that 2nd L, so ease up my man.
Posted on 8/22/15 at 10:23 am to Cheese Grits
quote:Yeah, by the time I had realized that I had misspelled my own name
Cheese Grits
, I figured the worst thing that would happen is that I would serve up a little mental charity to guys like you and the OP that need to be encouraged from time to time. It's not technically tax deductible, but I've never been audited so...Posted on 8/22/15 at 10:34 am to Robert Duval
quote:
Most guys like you are pretty smart...but you over-estimate the value of your conceptual intelligence and under-estimate the anchor of your lack of common sense.
That is the most rational/accurate statement I have ever seen on the rant. It has no place here. What the hell are you doing?
Posted on 8/22/15 at 10:37 am to Robert Duval
Single L Duval's have done okay in the south so it is all cool
Damon in Alabama and David in Florida (even tho David did go Tech)
Damon in Alabama and David in Florida (even tho David did go Tech)
Posted on 8/22/15 at 11:08 am to Cheese Grits
Robert has two issues here. 1st he is without a team and 2nd he can't remember 2013.
Posted on 8/22/15 at 11:10 am to BornKjun
ESPN and sbnation are the same entity. You are watering down the data..
Need to diversify.. If you wanted a true average
Need to diversify.. If you wanted a true average
This post was edited on 8/22/15 at 11:11 am
Posted on 8/22/15 at 11:13 am to BornKjun
Too much emphasis is being placed on Home field... I say that because there's no way we should be favored against Bama...
Posted on 8/22/15 at 11:13 am to bigDgator
quote:
Robert has two issues here. 1st he is without a team and 2nd he can't remember 2013.
I haven't figured out how to list my team (Auburn) but I haven't really tried. If that's poor form, I'd be happy to get their logo up there.
On your second point, 2015 Vandy beat 2015 UGA in 2013? I missed that.
Posted on 8/22/15 at 11:14 am to BornKjun
quote:
2. LSU 84.1
Posted on 8/22/15 at 11:18 am to Robert Duval
quote:
I haven't figured out how to list my team (Auburn) but I haven't really tried.
Go to the top of the page and mash the "Settings" button that is next to the "Log In" button. Select Auburn. Hit save settings
Posted on 8/22/15 at 11:24 am to Robert Duval
quote:
On your second point, 2015 Vandy beat 2015 UGA in 2013? I missed that.
Very poor form not to have a logo. We have no idea who to insult. On the 2nd point, I don't necessarily think it is laughable to predict a team has a chance to beat you when they did it last time you were in their house. I doubt it happens, but far from laughable. Vandy almost beat one of our best teams ever in their house. A team that went on to win the national championship.
Page 1 of 2
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News