re: Race for the Sugar

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UT won't get much love with a win over Vandy.

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UT's out, Vandy will probably beat them

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I have a hard time seeing UF jumping to 15 this week

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It isn't as crazy as it might sound.

Possible scenario

#1 Alabama- Beats Chat, stays #1
#2 OSU- Beats Mich. St, stays #2
#3 Michigan- Beats Indiana, stay #3
#4 Clemson- Beats Wake, stays #4
#5 Louisville- Loses to Houston, Moves to #11
#6 Washington- Beats ASU, moves to #5
#7 Wisconsin- Beats Purdue, moves to #6
#8 Penn State- Beats Rutgers, stays at #8
#9 Oklahoma- Beats WVU, moves to #7
#10 Colorado- Beats WSU, moves to #9
#11 OK State- Beats TCU, moves to #10
#12 Utah- loses to Oregon, moves to #23 OR OUT
#13 USC- Beats UCLA, moves to #12
#14 WVU- loses to Oklahoma, moves to #21 OR OUT
#15 Auburn- Beats AAM, Moves to #13
#16 LSU- Loses to UF, moves to #22 OR OUT
#17 FSU- Beats Syracuse, moves to #14
#18 Nebraska- beats Maryland, moves to #16
#19 Tennessee- beats Mizzou, moves to #17
#20 Boise State- Beats UNLV, moves to #18
#21 WMU- Beats Buffalo, moves to #19
#22 Wash U- loses to Colorado, drops out
#23 Florida, Beats LSU, moves to #15
#24 Stanford- Beats Cal, moves to #20
#25 TAMU- Beats UTSA, moves to #24


So in reality, Florida has to jump these teams who won last week: Tennessee, Nebraska, Boise State and WMU.

All of the opponents they faced last week have losing records. The committee already doesn't like WMU and Boise State, so they'll surely jump them. It's down between three loss Tennessee, or two loss Florida, or two loss Nebraska for the #15 spot. They'll probably give it to Nebraska, and put Florida at #16 this week.

So I was close.

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Auburn might have the best shot. Auburn and LSU would be 5-3 in the SEC with the fourth loss coming to OOC P5 schools in week one. I think that would move Arkansas and aTm below them due to being 4-4 in SEC play. Auburn would then have the advantage of a head to head win against LSU.

I honestly think Tennessee beats Vandy convincingly enough to get the Sugar bid. I think Auburn would then get the Citrus, but not sure where aTm and LSU would go. Not sure if either school would draw well enough to Tampa to get Outback bids, and I don't see either of them falling far enough for a Texas Bowl spot.

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Isn't it purely based on playoff ranking? Like the rankings every year that will simply be a beauty contest. If Auburn looks decent against bama in a loss and UF loses to FSU and it will be Auburn. If UF beats FSU it will be UF. If bama curb stomps Auburn and UF loses both to FSU and bama...it might be A&M or UT.

Well done, I agree TN needs a FL loss to FSU to feel really good about being in the Sugar, along with a loss for Auburn and maybe an A&M loss to LSU ( don't think this is necessary if TN looks good against Vandy).

Ranked by most likely scenarios

#1
Tennessee beats Vandy (9-3) - in
Florida loses to FSU and Bama (9-4) - out
Auburn loses to Bama (8-4) - out
Texas A&M loses to LSU (8-4) - out

#2
Tennesee beats Vandy (9-3) - out
Texas A&M beats LSU (9-3) - in
Florida loses to FSU and Bama (9-4) - out
Auburn loses to Bama (8-4) - out

#3
Florida beats FSU, loses to Bama (10-3) - in



In terms of "controlling destiny"
1. Florida
2. Auburn (theoretically)
3. Texas A&M
4. Tennessee

However, Tennessee has to beat Vandy while the other 3 have tough games.

I don't see how A&M will jump Tennessee if they both win this weekend. Would a win over a 6-5 LSU team really be enough to vault them 6+ spots in the rankings?

If Florida beats FSU this weekend, UF is in the Sugar.

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Honestly, I don't even remember the process for the non-playoff bowls. Do they have to take the highest ranked team? If so, I probably agree.

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IIRC, the Sugar Bowl has to take the highest ranked non playoffs SEC team in years when they are not hosting a playoff game. The rest of the SEC bowls (Outback, Citrus, Taxslayer etc) do not apply to that rule.

Auburn could lose a close game in T Town and still be the highest ranked SEC team in the CFP after Bama.