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Potential scenarios for SEC next year

Posted on 1/3/24 at 1:57 pm
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30955 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 1:57 pm
Here are the top 7 teams based on final conference record this year, going into next year:

Alabama - 8-0
Georgia - 8-0
Texas - 8-1
Oklahoma - 7-2
LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss - 6-2

Here's how they break down vs each other:

Alabama plays Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma (no Texas, no Ole Miss)

Georgia plays Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss (no Oklahoma, no Missouri, no Ole Miss)

Texas plays Georgia, Oklahoma (no Ole Miss, no Missouri, no Alabama, no LSU)

Oklahoma plays Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, LSU (no Georgia)

LSU - Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss

Missouri - Oklahoma, Alabama

Ole Miss - Georgia, Oklahoma, LSU

So, a few observations:

1. I don't know which voodoo witch or eldritch horror Oklahoma offended, but probably not a bad idea to make a few visits to a confessional or hire an exorcist.

2. There are a few scenarios that allow for a 3-way tie of undefeated teams. The most likely one is probably Alabama / Texas / Ole Miss, but Missouri and Texas each only play 2 of the teams that finished with 2 losses or fewer (and not each other). Any of the 4 teams that neither play could also end up undefeated (LSU or Ole Miss). While a 4-way tie is impossible, there's a couple of scenarios for 3-way ties among these teams. Of course, there's even more scenarios for 1-loss ties with a "A lost to B who lost to C who lost to A".


While these scenarios usually self-correct by the end of the season, it'll be interesting to see if we end up with a large number of ties. IIRC, the last 3-way tie in the SEC was 1989 (Alabama, Auburn, and Tennessee).
Posted by terd ferguson
Darren Wilson Fan Club President
Member since Aug 2007
108782 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 1:58 pm to
Bama loses 2... maybe 3
Posted by Smokeyone
Maryville Tn
Member since Jul 2016
16080 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 1:58 pm to
Delusional at best
Posted by Jake81
Member since Jul 2021
238 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:00 pm to
new guys have to play 9 games?
Posted by Jake81
Member since Jul 2021
238 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:02 pm to
quote:

Oklahoma plays Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, LSU (no Georgia)


1. I don't know which voodoo witch or eldritch horror Oklahoma offended, but probably not a bad idea to make a few visits to a confessional or hire an exorcist.


out of the 5 tough opponents only 1 at home, 1 neutral and 3 road,


plus the mystery 9th opponent...
This post was edited on 1/3/24 at 2:03 pm
Posted by Smokeys Howl
Member since Oct 2022
1985 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:04 pm to
quote:

Here are the top 7 teams based on final conference record this year, going into next year:


Here are the top 7 teams based on oddsmakers at Betonline, going into next year:

Georgia
Alabama
Texas
LSU
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Texas AM

Probably best to use those.

Posted by ukraine_rebel
North Mississippi
Member since Oct 2012
2243 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:07 pm to
In a 3 way tie, it would go to whoever beat the highest ranked (in the standings not CFP) opponent.

Say BAMA Texas Ole Miss, then if LSU finishes next in the standings, then Texas is out and Ole Miss and BAMA play for title and so on and so forth.
Posted by Dallaswho
Texas
Member since Dec 2023
966 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:07 pm to
OU is better than Tennessee now? Have y’all been paying any attention to bowl/transfer season?
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30955 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:07 pm to
quote:

Delusional at best


Never said it was likely, but it's not impossible.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30955 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:12 pm to

quote:

OU is better than Tennessee now? Have y’all been paying any attention to bowl/transfer season?


I never claimed they were better than Tennessee; I just stuck with final records of this past year. Taking OU out of the equation and adding Tennessee:

quote:

Tennessee
Aug. 31: Chattanooga
Sept. 7: NC State
Sept. 14: Kent State
Sept. 21: at Oklahoma
Oct. 5: at Arkansas
Oct. 12: Florida
Oct. 19: Alabama
Nov. 2: Kentucky
Nov. 9: Mississippi State
Nov. 16: at Georgia
Nov. 23: UTEP
Nov. 30: at Vanderbilt



They also only play two of the teams (and both are played by either Missouri or Texas), so a 3-way tie involving those three isn't absurd.
Posted by Stew2581
Covington
Member since Oct 2021
888 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:16 pm to
It’s funny how you think a team that barely beat a very bad Auburn team and USF team, then racked up under 300 yards of total offense in the semifinal with barely 100 yards passing is going undefeated next year
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30955 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

It’s funny how you think a team that barely beat a very bad Auburn team and USF team, then racked up under 300 yards of total offense in the semifinal with barely 100 yards passing is going undefeated next year


It's funnier to see how terrible your reading comprehension is.
Posted by ht1950
Member since Dec 2023
113 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:22 pm to
Oklahoma has perhaps the toughest of all the SEC schedules. I do not see them in the title game and maybe not even in the playoffs.

Here is my SEC Group of Five for the playoffs:

Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Missouri.

(Bubble: LSU, Tennessee)
Posted by ukraine_rebel
North Mississippi
Member since Oct 2012
2243 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

I do not see them in the title game and maybe not even in the playoffs.


True, they could be the 15th best team in the country and still go 7-5.
Posted by olemissfan26
MS
Member since Apr 2012
6242 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:38 pm to
I don’t see ole miss going undefeated next year. I think UGA gets us at home for sure and we have at best coin flip game at LSU. Then you have Oklahoma to deal with.

Basically win all the games you “should” win. Get hyped up for LSU and Oklahoma and then you get a free shot against UGA. Win 2/3 of those games preferably with one being UGA and you’re in. 2 losses and you’re at the mercy of everyone else.
Posted by nicholastiger
Member since Jan 2004
43037 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:42 pm to
Most years 3 from sec will make playoffs
If you don’t make sec title game you get a extra break
If you win title game you get a bye
Some years you could have 4 sec teams in playoffs

Bama plays uga
Could meet in sec title game
Could meet in playoffs
Posted by pankReb
Defending National Champs Fan
Member since Mar 2009
64687 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:51 pm to
Rebs don't go undefeated next season. We'll probably drop 2 out of UGA, OU, and LSU.

Good news is we still likely get into the playoffs with 2 losses.
Posted by pankReb
Defending National Champs Fan
Member since Mar 2009
64687 posts
Posted on 1/3/24 at 2:53 pm to
quote:


Most years 3 from sec will make playoffs
If you don’t make sec title game you get a extra break
If you win title game you get a bye
Some years you could have 4 sec teams in playoffs

Bama plays uga
Could meet in sec title game
Could meet in playoffs


You could argue it's more beneficial to not play in the SECCG. Take away the risk of key injuries. Downside is that's another week of not playing but that probably doesn't matter considering there's already almost a month of no football.
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