re: Ole Miss has the widest potential W-L variance.

As ridiculous as it sounds, I actually agree.

I watched a lot of Ole Miss football last year, and I must say, that team under Freeze plays with a lot of Piss & Vinegar.

A discussion on another Alabama board brought the Rebels up as a possible 'trap' game for the team. I tend to agree.

In 2010, #1 Alabama seemed unbeatable after totally abusing the #6 in the country (and very overrated), Florida Gators by 30 points. The very next week, they showed up and got beat by the Gamecocks in Columbia, who at the time, had very similar talent to the Rebels of today.

That Ole Miss defense is formidable, and Jeff Scott and Donte Moncrief are as good a duo of weapons as most.

Besides the obvious 3 from last year (Georgia, LSU, A&M) the only team that came close to giving us a game was Ole Miss. It was frustrating from our perspective, because on paper, it was a totally over-matched team. Hugh Freeze gets their players to play above their heads, and with a new infusion of talent, could be a scary team.

I have a strong feeling the "power shift" has already swung to the school up north in Mississippi completely. Freeze has better players, a better scheme, and in my opinion, is just a better coach.

Seriously, do any of y'all realize just HOW BAD the 2011 Rebels were? It was the sorriest SEC football team I've probably ever seen. 2012 Auburn was bad, but they weren't getting knelt on in the 3rd quarter. For that team the very next year to go a convincing 7-6, all while giving LSU & A&M an upset scare, was incredible.

I don't think the Rebels go 11-1... that's just not going to happen. However, there is a very real chance this squad goes 9-3, and plays in a New Years Day Bowl.

For that to happen, they only need to get a W against 1 of these 4: Texas, LSU, A&M, and Alabama. If this team can improve on last system, and the new recruits buy in like the veteran players have, this team will be more than a formidable opponent all season long.

They replaced arky. They'll have a few decent seasons and a lot of overhyped seasons.

conast pls

I love when you discuss predictions.

You finished on a roll in 2012.

You are probably scared now that Coon fricking nailed that Brassell prediction. He is about to go on a roll.

keys gonna be flying errywhere

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Typically we think of variance in terms of all the cases, not just one case. In this example, Ole Miss would be a single case, and we would have an observed number of wins and losses for them. If we had all of the other cases (all of the other teams) we could calculate the win-loss variance. Obviously, this way of thinking about variance is much different from the way you are using it.

Another way of thinking about variance would be to imagine that we could simulate Ole Miss' season. In this scenario, each sim would be a "case" and we could calculate a variance for those sims.

Of course, that can't happen, as Ole Miss will only play the 2013 season once.

Anyways...it seems a trifling point, but I think what you are REALLY trying to say is that the probability that Ole Miss wins several important games is close to .50. Of course, these probabilities are dependent on various factors including the personnel, coaches, game locations, injuries, and prior performance, and they will change over the course of the season.

In all, I find your claim intriguing, although I think it is a bit more complicated than you make it out to be.

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The most interesting approach is to set a confidence interval for the probabilities in each game and then run a simple Monte Carlo simulation. That would take a fairly straight-forward series of intuitive guesses (in the form of "I am 95% confident that the probability of Ole Miss beating State is between .65 and .8") and produce a probability for each potential record, from 0-12 to 12-0.

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Member since Feb 2013

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How'd my prediction that Alabama would be really good in 2012 turn out?

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hmmmmmm

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Not one person, not a single one, when I predicted 0-8 in 2011 said- "yeah, I agree with that"

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That has EVERYTHING to do with the fact that you're an a-hole with which no one wants to agree and absolutely NOTHING to do with what people actually thought about OM football. You bring out the worst in people, everywhere, all the time.


Just sayin...

Did you not get that there was no actual implication that the prediction ever happened? Seemed pretty obvious, considering that the point I was making was that predicting an highly likely outcome is kind of a dumbass thing to do.

You might want to consider the possibility that you aren't very smart.