re: Ole Miss has the widest potential W-L variance.

and SE Mizz...thats false advertising!

But the other 4 sucks.

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Yeah we get one before Bama


I forgot to add @Texas between Vandy and Bama

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AKA BYE week.


Even still, get through that portion of the schedule with 3 wins, and 9-3 is very likely. Win 4 and I don't think y'all lose again. 10-2 with a likely bowl victory. Pretty nice season heading into 2014, where y'all have some sick talent coming in. The SEC West will be up for grabs.

I think Freeze said it best earlier this year:

"We could have a better team this year but still have less wins."

They won't go 11-1 because the West is far too tough, but they also won't go 4-8 because they return a lot of experience from an overachieving team last year.

7-8 regular season wins would be pretty realistic.

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"We could have a better team this year but still have less wins."

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But, you would be set up nicely heading into next season. Potentially winning out and getting the Egg Bowl in Starkville, a bowl win, and a to 15 final ranking. Could be a great 2014 for Ole Miss, depending on the 2014 schedule.

LSU is a gimme for everyone this year though.

2014 is the year we can make serious noise. We also can cleanse the stain of UGA losing to Boise

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I think Freeze said it best earlier this year:

"We could have a better team this year but still have less wins."

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Ive heard others say the same thing. OM has talent and a good coach and will be a good team...the W's may not come though.

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Ole Miss has the widest potential W-L variance.

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Typically we think of variance in terms of all the cases, not just one case. In this example, Ole Miss would be a single case, and we would have an observed number of wins and losses for them. If we had all of the other cases (all of the other teams) we could calculate the win-loss variance. Obviously, this way of thinking about variance is much different from the way you are using it.

Another way of thinking about variance would be to imagine that we could simulate Ole Miss' season. In this scenario, each sim would be a "case" and we could calculate a variance for those sims.

Of course, that can't happen, as Ole Miss will only play the 2013 season once.

Anyways...it seems a trifling point, but I think what you are REALLY trying to say is that the probability that Ole Miss wins several important games is close to .50. Of course, these probabilities are dependent on various factors including the personnel, coaches, game locations, injuries, and prior performance, and they will change over the course of the season.

In all, I find your claim intriguing, although I think it is a bit more complicated than you make it out to be.

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I just hope that the coaching staff and players don't let 4th quarter double digit leads go so easily this year. Depth and experience was the difference between 9 regular season wins and the 6 we ended up with last year.

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You mean this:


...............1.........2......3.......4..........T
TA&M...7........10......0.......13........30
MISS....10........7.......3........7.........27

Ain't gonna lie. Ole Miss deserved to win that game. I hope our team is ready to play this year, cuz payback is a bitch and Ole Miss has to tools to make said payment.